The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on December 7 under the influence of effects associated with CH1333 (until 11h UT, at that time the high speed stream ended quickly). Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 389 and 702 km/sec, averaging 530 km/sec (-123 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux decreased slowly having peaked at 1.0 pfu at 01:25 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 194.4 - increasing 23.6 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 157.67 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 148.6 (41 days ago, this is 50.3% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 7.5). Three hour interval K indices: 24321000 (planetary), 24222211 (Boulder), 45431000 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 361) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 241) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14294 [S16W27] decayed in the leading spot
section. There are two magnetic delta configurations, one in the
intermediate spot section and one in the southern part of the trailing spot
section. A major flare is possible. The region produced an M2.0 flare at
00:36 UT on December 8. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 04:56 UT
AR 14295 [N04W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14296 [S14W18] decayed slowly and produced several low level C
flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 14:45 UT
AR 14298 [S16W49] became unstable as new flux emerged to the north of
the largest spot. The region produced an impulsive X1.1 flare at 05:01 UT on
December 8.
AR 14299 [N22W08] decayed slowly. There is a weakening magnetic delta
configuration in the trailing spot section. The region produced many C
flares and an M2.4 flare peaking at 00:12 UT on December 8.
AR 14300 [N08W01] was quiet and stable.
New
AR 14303 [S27E51] emerged on December 6 and was numbered by SWPC the
next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11661 [N14W21] was quiet and stable.
AR S11663 [S17E05] was quiet and stable.
AR S11664 [N25E04] developed slowly and has polarity intermixing.
New AR S11668 [S25E29] emerged before noon with tiny spots, then
decayed slowly.
New AR S11669 [S05W04] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S11670 [N01E26] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.2 | 00:54 | 14296 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 01:51 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C2.5 | 01:56 | 14296 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 02:18 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 02:21 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 02:47 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 02:54 | behind southwest limb | 14301 | GOES18 | |
| C2.5 | 03:31 | S15W09 | 14296 | GOES18 | |
| C2.8 | 03:56 | 14296 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:57 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 06:12 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 06:41 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 06:53 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C2.7 | 07:17 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 07:36 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 07:44 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 08:00 | behind southwest limb | 14301 | GOES18 | |
| C3.4 | 08:11 | 14294 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14296 | |
| C2.5 | 09:16 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 09:38 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 09:42 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 09:55 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C3.3 | 09:58 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 10:15 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 10:25 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 10:29 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 11:25 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 11:30 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.5 | 12:04 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 12:20 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C3.8 | 12:29 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 12:41 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 13:25 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 13:34 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 15:41 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 15:50 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 16:19 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 17:04 | S11664 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.9 | 17:31 | 14294 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR S11666 behind the northwest limb | |
| C2.6 | 18:09 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 19:12 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 19:20 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 19:49 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 20:20 | behind southwest limb | 14301 | GOES18 | |
| C6.3 | 20:46 | S16W50 | 14298 | GOES18 | |
| C5.4 | 21:22 | S16W31 | 14294 | GOES18 | |
| C3.1 | 21:50 | behind northwest limb | S11666 | GOES18 | |
| C3.3 | 22:00 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 22:20 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 22:35 | S21W24 | 14294 | GOES18 | |
| C6.7 | 22:48 | 14294 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14298 | |
| C3.7 | 23:00 | 14296 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 23:26 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 23:34 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.4 | 00:12 | 14299 | GOES18 | flare started at 23:57 UT |
December 6: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed late in the day after the M8
flare in AR 14299. The CME could reach Earth sometime between noon on December 8
and noon on December 9 and cause
active to severe storm levels.
December 5, 7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1334) will likely become Earth facing on December 10-12.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on December 8-9 until the arrival of the December 6 CME. Unsettled to severe storm levels are likely from then until December 10.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14294 | 2025.11.28 2025.11.28 |
34 | 72 | 37 | S15W37 | 0800 | FKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11642 location: S16W27 area: 1030 SWPC location is way off |
| 14296 | 2025.11.29 2025.11.30 |
12 | 45 | 33 | S14W18 | 0680 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11647 area: 0710 |
| 14295 | 2025.11.29 2025.11.30 |
1 | 5 | 3 | N04W33 | 0010 | HAX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11648 location: N04W25 SWPC location is way off |
| 14299 | 2025.11.30 2025.12.01 |
10 | 37 | 17 | N21W13 | 0220 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11649 area: 0180 location: N22W08 |
| S11650 | 2025.11.30 | N18W49 | |||||||||
| 14298 | 2025.12.01 | 1 | 10 | 6 | S18W52 | 0120 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0240 location: S16W49 |
| 14300 | 2025.12.01 2025.12.02 |
1 | 6 | 3 | N08W03 | 0010 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11654 area: 0020 location: N08W01 |
| S11660 | 2025.12.03 | N17W35 | |||||||||
| S11661 | 2025.12.04 | 20 | 7 | N14W21 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11662 | 2025.12.05 | N05E16 | |||||||||
| S11663 | 2025.12.05 | 10 | 2 | S17E05 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11664 | 2025.12.06 | 14 | 6 | N25E04 | 0040 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| 14303 | 2025.12.06 2025.12.07 |
4 | 8 | 5 | S27E53 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11665 area: 0050 location: S27E51 |
| S11668 | 2025.12.07 | 2 | 1 | S25E29 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11669 | 2025.12.07 | 1 | S05W04 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11670 | 2025.12.07 | 1 | 1 | N01E26 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 63 | 231 | 121 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 133 | 361 | 241 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 106 | 273 | 163 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 146 | 199 | 193 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.5 (-4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (124.4 projected, -4.1) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (121.7 projected, -2.7) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (118.0 projected, -3.7) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (114.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (110.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (107.9 projected, -2.2) | 21.3 |
| 2025.12 | 203.9 (1) | 36.7 (2A) / 162.7 (2B) / 136.1 (2C) | (106.3 projected, -1.6) | (16.7) | |
| 2026.01 | (102.3 projected, -4.0) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (98.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (93.8 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (90.1 projected, -3.7) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (88.9 projected, -1.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
