The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on November 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 393 and 765 km/sec, averaging 480 km/sec (-63 km/sec compared to the previous day). Two CMEs arrived late in the day. At 22:23 UT at SOHO solar wind speed increased abruptly from 467 to 546 km/sec, probably the late arrival of the November 9 CME. Then at 23:44 UT solar wind speed increased from 575 to 758 km/sec, likely the arrival of the November 10 CME. The latter CME was extreme and caused the planetary A index to increase to 300 (=K9)for the first 3 hour interval on November 12. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to minor storm levels on Nov.11. The above 10 MeV proton flux increased significantly after 10h UT as a consequence of the X5.1 flare in AR 14274. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 124 pfu at the end of the UT day, then peaked at 02:15 UT on November 12 reaching 1460 pfu. Another peak is possible when the CME associated with the X5 flare arrives, probably sometime after noon on November 12.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 168.0 - increasing 5.9 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 159.57 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 153.8 (41 days ago, this is 53.6% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 5.5). Three hour interval K indices: 22120103 (planetary), 12221312 (Boulder), 23221115 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 370) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 231) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14272 [N21W54] decayed quickly and quietly.
AR 14274 [N24W35] continued to be the source of almost all flare
activity as some decay was observed in the leading spot section. The region
produced an X5.1/3B proton flare at 10:04 UT and was associated with a very
impressive EUV wave covering all of the northern hemisphere and most of the
southern hemisphere. The associated CME is very fast and could reach Earth
sometime after noon on November 12. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 00:24, C1.3 @ 20:35,
C1.2 @ 20:57, C1.3 @ 21:41, C1.2 @ 23:34 UT
AR 14275 [N07W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14276 [S17W02] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14277 [S06W03] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1
flares: C1.9 @ 15:28, C1.4 @ 20:07, C1.6 @ 21:27, C1.1 @ 22:58 UT
AR 14278 [N10W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14279 [S13E31] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14280 [S08E48] developed slowly and quietly.
New AR 14281 [S14W49] was first observed with spots on November 8,
then decayed. New flux emerged on November 11 and the region was numbered by
SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11591 [N14E07] was quiet and stable.
AR S11596 [S07E27] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11599 [N07W08] emerged with reversed polarities.
New AR S11600 [N27W03] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New AR S11601 [S15E09] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New AR S11602 [N09E63] was observed with a tiny spots in an old plage
area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 00:55 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 01:11 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 01:23 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 02:23 | N22W28 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.9 | 02:55 | S08E41 | S11596 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 03:06 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 03:25 | N22W28 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.8 | 03:54 | N22W28 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C3.5 | 04:35 | N22W23 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 04:55 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 05:46 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.6 | 06:28 | N23W26 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C3.8 | 06:45 | N23E20 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C4.8 | 07:41 | N22W24 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| M1.4 | 08:09 | N21W31 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C6.8 | 08:38 | N21W32 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| X5.1/3B | 10:04 | N23W24 | 14274 | GOES18 | CME, strong type II and IV radio sweeps |
| M1.0 | 12:00 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 13:41 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 14:07 | southeast of AR 14280 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 14:38 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:54 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 15:36 | 14277 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.2 | 16:58 | N21W36 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.9 | 22:21 | 14274 | GOES18 |
November 9: A bright, nearly symmetric full halo CME was
observed after the major X1.7 flare in AR 14274. The CME likely reached
Earth late on November 11.
November 10: A full halo CME was observed after the X1.2 proton event
in AR 14274. The CME reached Earth just after midnight on November 12.
November 11: A full halo CME was observed after the X5.1 proton event
in AR 14274 peaking at 10:04 UT. The very fast CME is expected to reach
Earth sometime after noon on November 12.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1329) rotated across the central meridian on November 10 and decayed slowly. A northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1330) could become Earth facing on November 13-14.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to extremely severe storm levels on November 12-13 due to CME effects. Unsettled to major storm is likely on November 14 becoming quiet to active on November 15. Effects from CH1330 could cause quiet to minor storm levels on November 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N22W55 | 0020 | HRX | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11574 area: 0010 location: N21W54 |
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
20 | 66 | 39 | N24W37 | 1100 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 1430 location: N24W35 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
3 | 25 | 8 | N08W35 | 0120 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 area: 0210 location: N07W36 |
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
11 | 32 | 19 | S17W01 | 0110 | CAO | EAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11581 area: 0200 location: S17W02 |
| 14278 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
4 | 1 | N11W08 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11582 location: N10W07 |
||
| 14277 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
6 | 30 | 17 | S07W02 | 0120 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
was AR S11583 area: 0260 location: S06W03 |
| 14279 | 2025.11.07 2025.11.09 |
1 | 8 | 1 | S13E31 | 0030 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11587 area: 0060 |
| S11588 | 2025.11.07 | S15W34 | |||||||||
| 14281 | 2025.11.08 2025.11.11 |
2 | 12 | 6 | S13W49 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11589 area: 0040 location: S14W49 |
| S11590 | 2025.11.08 | N19W21 |
 |
||||||||
| S11591 | 2025.11.08 | 2 | N14E07 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11592 | 2025.11.08 | S32W15 | |||||||||
| 14280 | 2025.11.09 2025.11.10 |
7 | 17 | 10 | S09E49 | 0020 | BXI | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11593 area: 0070 location: S08E48 |
| S11594 | 2025.11.10 | N17W26 |
 |
||||||||
| S11596 | 2025.11.10 | 8 | 4 | S07E27 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11597 | 2025.11.10 | S23W26 |
 |
||||||||
| S11598 | 2025.11.10 | S32E05 |
 |
||||||||
| S11599 | 2025.11.11 | 3 | 2 | N07W08 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
reversed polarities | |||
| S11600 | 2025.11.11 | 4 | 2 | N27W03 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11601 | 2025.11.11 | 5 | S15E09 | 0012 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11602 | 2025.11.11 | 1 | N09E63 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 51 | 220 | 111 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 131 | 370 | 231 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 84 | 256 | 147 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 144 | 204 | 185 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 153.3 (1) | 35.0 (2A) / 95.5 (2B) / 127.7 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (20.2) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
