The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on October 15 under the weakening influence of effects associated with CH1322. The phi angle swung into a positive sector after 22h UT. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 496 and 622 km/sec, averaging 536 km/sec (-100 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was
162.1 -
increasing 11.7
over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 165.11 (183 days ago). The 81 day
average solar flux at 1 AU was 154.7 (41 days ago, this is 54.1% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81
day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of
69 at solar minimum).
SC25 365d peak:
195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 10.3). Three hour interval K indices: 43322112 (planetary), 43332211 (Boulder), 44322114 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 292) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 203) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14246 [N23W53] was unstable and produced
many C and M flares. The spot group remains complex with multiple large
magnetic delta configurations and a significant chance for a major flare. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 11:35 UT
AR 14248 [N07W20] decayed slowly and quietly. Note that SWPC/USAF
made a mistake and swapped region numbers on October 12 for this AR and AR
14250. The original numbering will be kept here for data consistency and
integrity reasons.
AR 14249 [S17W10] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14250 [N07W27] decayed losing area, spots and the magnetic delta. Flare activity
decreased significantly. There is still a chance of a major flare.
AR 14251 [N25W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14252 [S14E26] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14253 [S15W46] developed slowly and quietly.
AR 14254 [N10E59] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11521 [N07W48] was quiet and stable.
S11524 [S04E32] reemerged with tiny spots.
S11526 [S08E51] developed slowly and quietly.
New AR S11528 [N28W09] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11529 [S14E80] rotated into view producing several flares.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.6 | 00:10 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 00:26 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.8 | 00:37 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 00:57 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 01:19 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.7 | 01:44 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.2 | 02:01 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.6 | 02:10 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 02:40 | S11529 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 03:07 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.6 | 03:14 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 03:35 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.1 | 03:45 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.5 | 03:57 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| M4.8/2N | 04:15 | N24W41 | 14246 | GOES18 | |
| M2.1 | 04:46 | southeast limb | S11529 | GOES18 | |
| M1.1 | 05:17 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 06:34 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| M3.7/1N | 07:18 | N24W41 | 14246 | GOES18 | |
| C4.6 | 07:51 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 08:31 | southeast limb | S11529 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 09:05 | southeast limb | S11529 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 09:22 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 09:54 | 14246 | GOES19 | ||
| C2.8 | 10:07 | 14246 | GOES19 | ||
| C4.8 | 10:22 | southeast limb | S11529 | GOES19 | |
| C3.9 | 10:44 | southeast limb | S11529 | GOES18 | |
| C2.8 | 10:57 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 12:19 | N22W45 | 14246 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 12:30 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 13:07 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 13:45 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.1 | 14:10 | 14246 | GOES18 | LDE, CME simultaneous flare in AR S11529 |
|
| C8.0 | 14:25 | southeast limb | S11529 | GOES18 | |
| C7.5 | 15:09 | GOES18 | |||
| C7.1 | 15:22 | GOES18 | |||
| C6.7 | 15:45 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.7 | 16:04 | GOES18 | |||
| C6.0 | 16:44 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.3 | 16:59 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.3 | 18:07 | N20W48 | 14246 | GOES18 | |
| C5.1 | 19:39 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.1 | 19:49 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 21:26 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 21:43 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.7 | 22:28 | 14246 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.4 | 23:45 | 14246 | GOES18 |
October 13: A CME was observed in LASCO imagery after the M1.3 flare
in AR 14246 at 13:18 UT. The CME could reach Earth on October 16.
October 14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
October 15: AR 14246 was the source of multiple CMEs. Only one of
them appears to have Earth directed components and was associated with a
long duration M1.1 event peaking at 14:10 UT.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1323) will be Earth facing on October 15-19.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on October 16-18 due to CME effects. October 19-22 could see quiet to minor storm levels due to effects associated with CH1323.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14244 | 2025.10.04 2025.10.05 |
S21W78 |
was AR S11500 location: S21W68 |
||||||||
| 14246 | 2025.10.05 2025.10.06 |
32 | 55 | 33 | N22W56 | 0300 | EKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11505 area: 1050 location: N23W53 |
| 14249 | 2025.10.08 2025.10.09 |
9 | 4 | S20W22 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11508 location: S17W10 |
||
| S11509 | 2025.10.08 | N30W45 | |||||||||
| 14248 | 2025.10.09 2025.10.10 |
20 | 6 | 5 | N07W27 | 0310 | EKI | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: N07W20 SWPC swapped
data for ARs |
| 14250 | 2025.10.09 2025.10.10 |
1 | 42 | 28 | N07W21 | 0010 | HRX | EHI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11511 area: 0830 location: N07W27 |
| 14251 | 2025.10.10 2025.10.12 |
1 | N19W02 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11514 location: N25W01 |
|||
| S11515 | 2025.10.10 | N18W32 | |||||||||
| 14253 | 2025.10.11 2025.10.12 |
2 | 1 | S17W52 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11516 location: S15W46 |
||
| 14252 | 2025.10.11 2025.10.12 |
2 | 28 | 11 | S13E28 | 0100 | CAO | DSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11517 area: 0270 location: S14E26 |
| S11518 | 2025.10.12 | S23E02 | |||||||||
| S11519 | 2025.10.12 | N08W57 | |||||||||
| S11520 | 2025.10.12 | N10E14 |
 |
||||||||
| S11521 | 2025.10.13 | 1 | N07W48 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11522 | 2025.10.13 | N12W11 |
 |
||||||||
| 14254 | 2025.10.13 2025.10.14 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N10E60 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11523 area: 0140 location: N10E59 |
| S11524 | 2025.10.13 | 2 | 1 | S04E32 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11525 | 2025.10.13 | S23E24 |
 |
||||||||
| S11526 | 2025.10.14 | 6 | 4 | S08E51 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11528 | 2025.10.15 | 6 | 3 | N28W09 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S11529 | 2025.10.15 | 3 | 2 | S14E80 | 0050 | CAO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 56 | 162 | 93 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 106 | 292 | 203 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 89 | 203 | 134 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 117 | 161 | 162 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.9 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 136.0 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (133.7 projected, -2.3) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (130.1 projected, -3.6) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (126.3 projected, -3.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (123.0 projected, -3.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.6 | (119.4 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.6 | (115.5 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 145.0 (1) | 57.6 (2A) / 119.0 (2B) / 166.2 (2C) | (111.5 projected, -4.0) | (18.2) | |
| 2025.11 | (109.3 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (107.6 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (103.5 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (99.4 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (95.0 projected, -4.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
