The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on November 9. A minor disturbance was observed reaching SOHO at 20:22 UT, possibly the arrival of the November 7 CME. Prior to that the phi angle was very variable throughout the day. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 498 and 665 km/sec, averaging 563 km/sec (-90 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to unsettled levels most of the day and ended the day with a major storm interval in response to the arrival of the above mentioned disturbance. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at or near background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 175.6 - increasing 34.2 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 159.71 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 152.8 (41 days ago, this is 52.9% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 21211113 (planetary), 22323323 (Boulder), 32203116 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 343) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 238) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14272 [N22W28] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14274 [N24W11] produced an X flare and several C flares.
Further X class flares are possible. Some penumbral fragmentation and loss
of area was observed in the leading spot section. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 00:09,
C1.4 @ 01:05, C1.9 @ 01:38, C1.6 @ 02:49, C1.5 @ 03:00, C1.5 @ 03:23, C1.9 @
10:58, C1.8 @ 11:08 UT
AR 14275 [N07W09] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.3 @
21:59 UT
AR 14276 [S17E24] has polarity intermixing and produced several C
flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:53, C1.9 @ 12:43, C1.4 @ 15:56, C1.7 @ 16:07 UT
AR 14277 [S06E25] matured and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.7 @
22:36 UT
AR 14278 [N11E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR 14279 [S12E57] rotated into view on November 7 and was
numbered 2 days later by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11588 [S15W03] was quiet and stable.
AR S11589 [S14W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR S11590 [N20E06] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR S11593 [S08E76] rotated into view with mostly tiny spots. C1
flares: C1.9 @ 13:26 UT
Minor update added at 11:00 UT: AR 14274 produced a long duration X1.2 flare peaking at 09:18 UT. This event was associated with a symmetric full halo CME that could reach Earth sometime between late on November 11 and the early afternoon on November 12. Expect minor to very severe storm levels after the direct impact.
Minor update added at 11:45 UT: Proton levels are increasing rapidly after the X1 flare with the above 10 MeV flux at 17 pfu at 11:30 UT.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 03:35 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.2/1N | 04:14 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 05:25 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.2 | 05:42 | N23W03 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C4.2 | 05:46 | 14274 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14276 | |
| C4.0 | 06:31 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| X1.7 | 07:33 | 14274 | GOES18 | LDE, CME moderate type II and IV radio sweeps |
|
| C3.4 | 18:07 | S16E29 | 14276 | GOES18 | |
| C5.4 | 18:34 | 14276 | GOES18 |
November 7: A faint asymmetric full halo CME was observed after a
long duration M1 event in AR 14274. This CME may have reached Earth late on
November 9.
November 8: No obvious CMEs were observed in available coronograph
imagery.
November 9: A bright, nearly symmetric full halo CME was
observed after the major X1.7 flare in AR 14274. The CME could
reach Earth sometime between late on November 10 and the early afternoon on November 11.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1329) will rotate across the central meridian on November 10. A northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1330) could become Earth facing on November 13.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on November 10-11 and quiet to major storm levels on November 12 due to CME effects. Quiet to active levels are possible on November 13 due to effects associated with CH1329.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14271 | 2025.10.28 2025.10.30 |
S09W86 |
was AR S11567 location: S09W74 |
||||||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
1 | 9 | 5 | N22W28 | 0040 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11574 area: 0070 |
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
25 | 79 | 49 | N25W11 | 0900 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 1860 |
| 14273 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.02 |
S14W64 |
 |
was AR S11576 location: S13W63 |
|||||||
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
3 | 48 | 24 | N07W09 | 0120 | CSO | CSI |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 area: 0260 |
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
10 | 40 | 26 | S17E28 | 0140 | DAO | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11581 area: 0270 location: S17E24 |
| 14278 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
4 | 12 | 4 | N11E20 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11582 |
| 14277 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
12 | 33 | 24 | S06E25 | 0150 | DSI | DSI |
 |
 |
was AR S11583 area: 0290 |
| S11584 | 2025.11.05 | S28W33 | |||||||||
| 14279 | 2025.11.07 2025.11.09 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S12E57 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11587 area: 0060 |
| S11588 | 2025.11.07 | 3 | S15W08 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S11589 | 2025.11.08 | 1 | 1 | S14W18 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11590 | 2025.11.08 | 1 | 1 | N20E06 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11591 | 2025.11.08 | N13E32 |
 |
||||||||
| S11592 | 2025.11.08 | S32E11 |
 |
||||||||
| S11593 | 2025.11.09 | 6 | 3 | S08E76 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 56 | 233 | 138 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 126 | 343 | 238 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 77 | 271 | 176 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 139 | 189 | 190 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 149.7 (1) | 26.4 (2A) / 87.9 (2B) / 126.1 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (22.6) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
