The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on November 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 479 and 612 km/sec, averaging 543 km/sec (-20 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to unsettled levels most of the day and ended the day with a major storm interval in response to the arrival of the above mentioned disturbance. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels until 09:50 UT. Then protons associated with the X1 flare in Ar 14274 arrived and the above 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 30.9 pfu at 15:00 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 18h UT on 2.8 GHz was 170.8 - increasing 16.4 over the previous solar rotation. The measurements at 20 and 22h UT were both flare enhanced, thus using the measurement at 18h UT.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 159.61 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 153.3 (41 days ago, this is 53.3% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 13.1). Three hour interval K indices: 32123433 (planetary), 22113432 (Boulder), 52014446 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 380) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 209) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14272 [N21W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14274 [N24W22] was the source of an X1 proton event and nearly all
other flares recorded during the day. The leading and trailing spot sections
appears to be approaching each other making the region even more compact.
Further X flares are likely. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 00:15, C1.3 @ 00:52, C1.8 @
06:19, C1.9 @ 08:16, C1.9 @ 19:00, C1.9 @ 19:39, C1.9 @ 23:58 UT
AR 14275 [N07W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14276 [S16E10] has polarity intermixing and could produce a minor
M flare. The trailing spot section decayed. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 01:18 UT
AR 14277 [S06E11] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14278 [N11E07] was quiet and stable.
AR 14279 [S12E44] was quiet and stable.
New AR 14280 [S08E62] rotated into view on November 9 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11589 [S14W34] was quiet and stable.
AR S11590 [N19W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR S11591 [N14E19] reemerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11594 [N17W13] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New AR S11596 [S07E38] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11597 [S23W13] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S11598 [S32E18] emerged with a tiny spot.
Minor update added at 10:30 UT: AR 14274 was the source of an X5.1 flare at 10:04 UT. This was another proton event and even the above 500 MeV proton flux is increasing rapidly as I write this. It's too early to tell if there was a CME, although the presence of a CME will be no surprise given the history of AR 14274.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 03:43 | N21W15 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.6 | 04:10 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 04:21 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:48 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 05:30 | N21W16 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.8 | 06:51 | N23W12 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 07:13 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 07:26 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 08:42 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| X1.2/2B | 09:18 | N23W14 | 14274 | GOES18 | LDE, CME, proton event strong type II and moderate type IV radio sweeps |
| M1.1 | 12:12 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.5 | 13:02 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.0 | 14:18 | N23W18 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C3.0 | 14:47 | 14279 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 14:58 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.8 | 15:22 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 16:23 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 16:31 | N23W18 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C3.3 | 16:41 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 17:15 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.3/1F | 18:13 | N22W18 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C3.5 | 18:37 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 19:05 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 19:09 | N23W20 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| M1.5/2N | 19:57 | N21W20 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C5.8 | 21:19 | 14274 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C5.8 | 21:33 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.8 | 22:21 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 23:04 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 23:42 | 14274 | GOES18 |
November 8: No obvious CMEs were observed in available coronograph
imagery.
November 9: A bright, nearly symmetric full halo CME was
observed after the major X1.7 flare in AR 14274. The CME will likely
reach Earth on November 11.
November 10: A full halo CME was observed after the X1.2 proton event
in AR 14274. The CME will likely reach Earth sometime between late on
November 11 and the early afternoon on November 12.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1329) rotate across the central meridian on November 10 and decayed slowly. A northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1330) could become Earth facing on November 13.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to severe storm levels starting from the first CME impact on November 11 and lasting at least until November 13 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
1 | 2 | 2 | N22W42 | 0040 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S11574 location: N21W41 |
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
28 | 86 | 47 | N24W24 | 0920 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 1740 location: N24W22 |
| 14273 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.02 |
S14W78 |
was AR S11576 location: S13W76 |
||||||||
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
5 | 37 | 11 | N08W23 | 0130 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 area: 0210 location: N07W22 |
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
12 | 38 | 22 | S17E13 | 0150 | DAO | EAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11581 area: 0270 location: S16E10 |
| 14278 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
7 | 1 | N11E06 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11582 | ||
| 14277 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
8 | 30 | 17 | S06E25 | 0150 | DSI | DSI |
 |
 |
was AR S11583 area: 0250 |
| S11584 | 2025.11.05 | S28W46 | |||||||||
| 14279 | 2025.11.07 2025.11.09 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S14E44 | 0020 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11587 area: 0070 location: S12E44 |
| S11588 | 2025.11.07 | S15W21 |
 |
||||||||
| S11589 | 2025.11.08 | 3 | S14W34 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11590 | 2025.11.08 | 4 | 1 | N19W08 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11591 | 2025.11.08 | 4 | N13E19 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11592 | 2025.11.08 | S32W02 | |||||||||
| 14280 | 2025.11.09 2025.11.10 |
3 | 6 | 3 | S09E61 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11593 area: 0025 location: S08E62 |
| S11594 | 2025.11.10 | 2 | N17W13 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11596 | 2025.11.10 | 8 | 4 | S07E38 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
beta-gamma | |||
| S11597 | 2025.11.10 | 1 | S23W13 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11598 | 2025.11.10 | 1 | S32E18 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 58 | 230 | 109 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 128 | 380 | 209 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 93 | 268 | 147 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 141 | 209 | 167 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 151.8 (1) | 30.6 (2A) / 91.9 (2B) / 127.0 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (21.6) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
