The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on September 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 332 and 637 km/sec. A sudden increase in solar wind speed was observed at 18:06 UT, highly likely the earlier than expected arrival of the August 30 CME. Early on September 2 wind speed has increased further to almost 800 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 135.8 - decreasing 40.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 153.48. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33234221 (planetary), 23344232 (Boulder), 33234443 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 209) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 107) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13413 [N09W77] produced a long duration
M1.2 proton flare peaking at 03:51 UT. A very wide and fast partial halo CME
was observed soon after this event. Due to the location near the northwest
limb, it is uncertain whether Earth will be affected by the core of this CME.
A long duration M3.3 flare was observed at 07:12 UT on September 2, however,
no increase in proton indices have been observed so far. Another CME was
observed in LASCO imagery, however, it is not yet sure if there was an Earth
directed component. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:51, C1.1 @ 02:15 UT
Region 13415 [S08W57] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13416 [S19W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13417 [S09E25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13418 [N21E37] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8896 [N28W44] was quiet and stable.
S8910 [S15W50] reemerged with tiny spots.
S8911 [S21E44] was somewhat unstable and produced a surprising C7
flare in the evening. C1 flare: C1.0 @ 20:27 UT
S8912 [N23E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S8913 [N22W24] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S8914 [S06E18] was split off from AR 13417 as new flux
emerged.
New region S8915 [S18E59] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.2 | 03:51 | 13413 | GOES16 | moderate type II and IV radio sweeps, large partial halo CME, proton event | |
| C2.8 | 06:28 | 13415 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 06:40 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 22:12 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 22:24 | S8911 | GOES16 |
September 1: A fast and wide asymmetrical partial halo CME was
observed after the M1.2 LDE in AR 13413. The CME could reach Earth on
September 3 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
August 31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
August 30: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
starting at 22:12 UT. This CME was likely related to a large filament
eruption across the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. Coronal
dimming was observed mostly to the south and east of the eruption. The CME
reached Earth on September 1.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1168) will likely become Earth facing on September 3.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on September 2 due to CME effects. Another CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions that day and on September 4.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13413 | 2023.08.20 2023.08.21 |
12 | 11 | 9 | N10W76 | 0260 | DKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0370 location: N09W77 |
| 13415 | 2023.08.22 2023.08.22 |
4 | 12 | 3 | S09W57 | 0190 | DAO | DKO |
 |
 |
area: 0270 location: S08W57 |
| 13416 | 2023.08.24 2023.08.25 |
1 | 6 | 3 | S19W24 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S19W22 |
| S8893 | 2023.08.24 | S22W35 | |||||||||
| S8894 | 2023.08.24 | N20W54 | |||||||||
| S8896 | 2023.08.26 | 4 | N28W44 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8897 | 2023.08.26 | N20W51 | |||||||||
| S8898 | 2023.08.26 | S17W49 | |||||||||
| S8900 | 2023.08.27 | N10W16 |
 |
||||||||
| S8901 | 2023.08.27 | S12W35 |
 |
||||||||
| 13417 | 2023.08.28 2023.08.28 |
15 | 18 | 7 | S08E22 | 0100 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S09E25 |
| 13418 | 2023.08.29 2023.08.30 |
1 | 6 | 4 | N22E37 | 0020 | HSX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N21E37 area: 0030 |
| S8904 | 2023.08.29 | N02W44 | |||||||||
| S8905 | 2023.08.29 | N23W09 | |||||||||
| S8906 | 2023.08.30 | N07W59 |
 |
||||||||
| S8909 | 2023.08.30 | N18E23 |
 |
||||||||
| S8910 | 2023.08.30 | 2 | S15W50 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8911 | 2023.08.30 | 5 | S21E44 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8912 | 2023.08.31 | 7 | N23E01 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8913 | 2023.09.01 | 6 | 3 | N23W24 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8914 | 2023.09.01 | 11 | 8 | S06E18 | 0070 | DRO |
 |
split off from AR 13417 | |||
| S8915 | 2023.09.01 | 1 | S18E59 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 33 | 89 | 37 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 83 | 209 | 107 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 58 | 126 | 73 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 91 | 115 | 86 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.1 (+2.2) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.4 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.9 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | (121.0 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (126.3 projected, +5.3) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (131.9 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.1 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (135.5 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.9 | (137.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.3 |
| 2023.09 | 135.8 (1) | 2.8 (2A) / 83 (2B) / 117.8 (2C) | (140.7 projected, +3.4) | (11.6) | |
| 2023.10 | (142.5 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (145.1 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (144.2 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (141.4 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (141.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (140.8 projected, -0.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
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This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
