The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on August 5 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 303 and 476 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels. A solar wind shock was observed at DSCOVR at 02:09 on August 5, the arrival of the August 2 CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 175.8 - decreasing 3.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 150.95. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 35 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 35.3). Three hour interval K indices: 56553211 (planetary), *7553222 (Boulder), 67643222 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 271) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 155) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13386 [N10W75] became more complex as
the two largest opposite polarity spots partly merged before noon. This
merge and subsequent increase in magnetic shear, was the likely cause of the
X1 flare late in the day.
Region 13387 [N20W47] developed with new flux emerging to the south
of the largest spot. The new penumbra has spots of both polarities and an M
class flare is possible.
Region 13388 [S23W57] was quiet and stable.
Region 13389 [S11W41] was quiet and stable.
Region 13390 [S19W29] was quiet and stable.
Region 13391 [N23W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13392 [N09W21] decayed slowly and produced a few flares.
Region 13394 [S22E37] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13395 [N14E52] was mostly quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8814 [N19E06] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8823 [S20W17] decayed early in the day, then developed slowly after
noon.
New region S8825 [N21W22] was split off from AR 13391 when a tiny
positive polarity spot became visible before noon.
New region S8826 [N34W18] emerged with a few spots.
New region S8827 [N27E03] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8828 [N22E27] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S8829 [N14E33] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8830 [N18W03] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
AR S8813 produced a C1.9 flare at 01:30 UT from behind the southwest limb.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 00:35 | behind SW limb | S8813 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 00:50 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 02:06 | S8813 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 02:18 | S8813 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 02:23 | N21W39 | 13387 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8813 |
| C9.7 | 02:54 | behind SW limb | S8813 | GOES16 | |
| C3.4 | 04:25 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 04:49 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 05:11 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6/1F | 05:29 | N19W37 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| C4.7 | 05:42 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 07:18 | N10W63 | 13386 | GOES16 | LDE, moderate type II radio sweep, full halo CME |
| M2.1 | 09:35 | behind SW limb | S8813 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0 | 12:01 | 13394 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:16 | 13386 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 14:49 | N20W41 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 15:14 | 13386 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 16:25 | N21W47 | 13387 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8813 |
| C2.8 | 16:58 | N07W73 | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C6.7 | 19:10 | N23W45 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 20:14 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 20:39 | N22W46 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| C2.5 | 21:16 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.6 | 22:21 | 13386 | GOES16 | weak type II radio sweep, full halo CME |
August 3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
August 4: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the long
duration M1.9 event in AR 13386 peaking at 04:24 UT. The CME could reach
Earth on August 7.
August 5: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the long
duration M1.6 event in AR 13386 peaking at 07:18 UT. The CME could reach
Earth on August 8. Another asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the
X1.6 event in AR 13386 peaking at 22:21 UT. This CME could also reach Earth
on August 8.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 6. The arrival of the August 4 and 5 CMEs will likely cause quiet to minor storm conditions on August 7-9.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13386 | 2023.07.25 2023.07.26 |
5 | 7 | 3 | N11W76 | 0250 | DKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0640 location: N10W75 |
| 13387 | 2023.07.26 2023.07.27 |
4 | 12 | 7 | N22W49 | 0080 | DSO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0210 location: N20W47 |
| 13388 | 2023.07.26 2023.07.27 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S23W58 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
|
| 13389 | 2023.07.27 2023.07.27 |
3 | S09W47 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S11W41 |
|||
| S8806 | 2023.07.27 | S15W55 | |||||||||
| 13390 | 2023.07.28 2023.07.27 |
6 | 2 | S20W36 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S19W29 |
||
| 13391 | 2023.07.28 2023.07.29 |
1 | 6 | 4 | N23W14 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 location: N23W12 |
| 13392 | 2023.07.29 2023.07.31 |
13 | 16 | 9 | N10W20 | 0190 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0240 location: N09W21 |
| 13393 | 2023.07.29 2023.07.31 |
N17W44 |
 |
||||||||
| S8814 | 2023.07.31 | 10 | N19E06 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13394 | 2023.08.02 2023.08.03 |
2 | 9 | 6 | S22E36 | 0150 | HSX | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0280 location: S22E37 |
| S8817 | 2023.08.02 | S09W20 |
 |
||||||||
| S8818 | 2023.08.02 | N17E16 | |||||||||
| 13395 | 2023.08.03 | 4 | 10 | 5 | N13E52 | 0120 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
location: N14E52 area: 0170 |
| S8820 | 2023.08.03 | S16W56 | |||||||||
| S8821 | 2023.08.03 | N32E58 | |||||||||
| S8822 | 2023.08.03 | S11E08 | |||||||||
| S8823 | 2023.08.04 | 6 | 5 | S20W17 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8824 | 2023.08.04 | S26W02 |
 |
||||||||
| S8825 | 2023.08.05 | 3 | 1 | N21W22 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8826 | 2023.08.05 | 3 | 2 | N34W18 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8827 | 2023.08.05 | 2 | N27E03 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8828 | 2023.08.05 | 2 | N22E27 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8829 | 2023.08.05 | 1 | N14E33 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8830 | 2023.08.05 | 3 | N18W03 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 30 | 101 | 45 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 100 | 271 | 155 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 65 | 150 | 94 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 110 | 149 | 124 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | 113.3 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (119.1 projected, +5.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (124.4 projected, +5.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (130.5 projected, +6.1) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (136.1 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (139.3 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (139.7 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 171.4 (1) | 20.7 (2A) / 128.2 (2B) / 148.9 (2C) | (141.5 projected, +1.8) | (14.7) | |
| 2023.09 | (145.0 projected, +3.5) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (146.8 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (149.4 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (148.6 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (145.7 projected, -2.9) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (144.3 projected, -1.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
