The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on July 7, likely under the influence of effects from CH1158. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 452 and 548 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 161.4 - increasing 0.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 146.64. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.0). Three hour interval K indices: 32343243 (planetary), 32444333 (Boulder), 53244555 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 310) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 192) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13355 [S17W67] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13358 [S12W21] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13359 [S21W24] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.7 @ 05:57 UT
Region 13360 [N22W19] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.8 @
16:35 UT
Region 13361 [N23E02] became more complicated again as a magnetic
delta formed in the eastern part of intermediate penumbra. C and M flares
are likely. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 23:46 UT
Region 13362 [S09E35] was quiet and stable.
Region 13363 [S21E59] was mostly quiet and stable. M flares are
possible.
Region 13364 [N23E45] displayed signs of decay and was quiet.
New region 13365 [S37W19] emerged on July 5 and was numbered by SWPC
2 days later.
New region 13366 [S10W10] was first observed with spots on June 30.
New flux emerged on July 7 and the region developed quickly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8725 [S19W03] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8739 [N07E07] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S8742 [N09E30] emerged within CH1159 causing the coronal
hole to shrink considerably. Only tiny spots are visible.
New region S8743 [N24E18] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S8744 [S05W17] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M4.0/2B | 06:29 | S22W15 | 13359 | GOES16 | |
| C4.2 | 07:32 | 13359 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 13:07 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 13:58 | 13361 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13363 by SWPC | |
| C2.6 | 17:32 | 13366 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 18:19 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 22:09 | 13361 | GOES16 |
July 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1158) was Earth facing on July 4-5. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1159) will likely rotate across the central meridian on July 9-11.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on July 8 due to effects from the July 4 CME and a high speed stream associated with CH1158. Quiet to unsettled is likely on July 9-11. Quiet to active is likely on July 12-13 due to effects from CH1159.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13355 | 2023.06.26 2023.06.27 |
1 | 1 | S15W70 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S17W67 |
||
| 13356 | 2023.06.29 2023.06.30 |
S07W65 | location: S08W53 | ||||||||
| 13357 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
S07W48 |
 |
location: S07W45 | |||||||
| 13358 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
7 | 22 | 9 | S13W23 | 0010 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
location: S12W21 area: 0040 |
| 13359 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
11 | 20 | 9 | S22W27 | 0210 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S21W24 area: 0150 |
| 13366 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.07 |
10 | 33 | 12 | S11W09 | 0020 | DRI | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0190 location: S10W10 |
| 13360 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
4 | 7 | 4 | N23W21 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N22W19 area: 0030 |
| S8721 | 2023.06.30 | N17W40 | |||||||||
| S8724 | 2023.07.02 | N09W27 | |||||||||
| S8725 | 2023.07.02 | 5 | S19W03 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8726 | 2023.07.02 | S37W27 | |||||||||
| 13361 | 2023.07.02 2023.07.04 |
17 | 42 | 24 | N24E02 | 0240 | EAC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N23E02 area: 0380 |
| S8730 | 2023.07.03 | N18W11 | |||||||||
| 13362 | 2023.07.04 2023.07.05 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S09E33 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S09E35 area: 0120 |
| S8733 | 2023.07.04 | N31E04 | |||||||||
| 13363 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
2 | 7 | 4 | S21E56 | 0320 | HKX | CKO |
 |
 |
location: S21E59 area: 0890 |
| S8735 | 2023.07.05 | N18W48 | |||||||||
| 13364 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
3 | 8 | 4 | N23E45 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 13365 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.07 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S36W21 | 0020 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 location: S37W19 |
| S8739 | 2023.07.06 | 5 | 1 | N07E07 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8741 | 2023.07.06 | N46E25 |
 |
||||||||
| S8742 | 2023.07.07 | 2 | 1 | N09E30 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8743 | 2023.07.07 | 3 | N24E18 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8744 | 2023.07.07 | 1 | S05W17 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 57 | 160 | 72 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 147 | 310 | 192 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 91 | 199 | 111 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 162 | 171 | 154 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.7 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.5 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.6 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (127.0 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (132.7 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.9 |
| 2023.07 | 164.2 (1) | 29.0 (2A) / 128.6 (2B) / 169.4 (2C) | (135.4 projected, -0.5) | (5.3) | |
| 2023.08 | (136.4 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.8 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (141.6 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (144.2 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (143.4 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (140.1 projected, -3.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
