The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on July 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 415 km/sec. Solar wind density was on an increasing trend all day and early on July 3. CIR effects associated with CH1304 have been in progress since late on July 2. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 129.8 - increasing 2.0 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 185.16 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 141.6 (41 days ago, this is 45.9% of the SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21222221 (planetary), 12233222 (Boulder), 32112333 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 238) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 172) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14122 [N11W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14123 [S28W50] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.0 @ 12:30 UT.
AR 14124 [S16W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14125 [N20E08] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14126 [N07W80] developed slowly rotated partly out of view. The
region was the source of several low level C flares. C1 flares: C1.2 @
00:30, C1.2 @ 08:37, C1.3 @ 14:37, C1.7 @ 16:12, C1.9 @ 16:24, C1.8 @ 17:32,
C1.3 @ 19:23, C1.4 @ 20:15, C1.6 @ 21:24 UT
AR 14127 [S18W06] developed slowly and quietly.
AR 14128 [S05E04] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14129 [N01E11] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14131 [N07W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14132 [S18E44] gained a few tiny spots and was mostly quiet. C1
flares: C1.1 @ 11:28, C1.1 @ 22:01 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11208 [N20W12] was quiet and stable.
S11215 [S21E17] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11216 [S29W63] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11217 [S20W01] emerged with several spots just east of AR
14127.
AR 14133 produced a C1.6 flare at 14:56 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 18:08 | 14126 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 18:35 | N07W79 | 14126 | GOES18 |
June 30 - July 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1304) will be in an Earth facing position on June 29 - July 4. CH1304 has decayed over the last few days due to the development of AR 14127.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on July 3-5 due to effects associated with CH1304. There is a chance of isolated minor storm intervals on July 3.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14122 | 2025.06.23 2025.06.25 |
2 | 13 | 5 | N12W40 | 0070 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11188 area: 0170 location: N11W39 |
| 14126 | 2025.06.24 2025.06.28 |
5 | 2 | 1 | N07W84 | 0030 | DRO | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S11190 location: N07W80 area: 0130 |
| S11193 | 2025.06.25 | S14W57 | |||||||||
| 14124 | 2025.06.26 2025.06.27 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S14W20 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11198 location: S16W15 |
| 14125 | 2025.06.26 2025.06.27 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N21E06 | 0040 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11199 area: 0100 location: N20E08 |
| 14123 | 2025.06.26 2025.06.27 |
4 | 5 | 4 | S28W52 | 0030 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11200 area: 0040 location: S28W50 |
| 14128 | 2025.06.27 2025.06.29 |
3 | 6 | 4 | S05W02 | 0030 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11202 area: 0050 location: S05E04 SWPC location is way off |
| 14127 | 2025.06.27 2025.06.29 |
10 | 26 | 17 | S18W09 | 0040 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
was AR S11203 area: 0220 location: S18W06 |
| 14129 | 2025.06.28 2025.06.30 |
7 | 17 | 9 | N02E09 | 0030 | CRI | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11206 location: N01E11 area: 0080 |
| S11207 | 2025.06.29 | S09E10 |
 |
||||||||
| S11208 | 2025.06.29 | 2 | N20W12 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 14132 | 2025.06.29 2025.07.01 |
2 | 7 | 3 | S17E42 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11209 location: S18E44 area: 0030 |
| S11210 | 2025.06.29 | N25E12 | |||||||||
| 14130 | 2025.06.30 2025.06.30 |
S12E39 |
 |
was AR S11211 location: S10E44 |
|||||||
| 14131 | 2025.06.30 2025.07.01 |
2 | 4 | 2 | N08W30 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11212 area: 0030 location: N07W30 |
| S11213 | 2025.06.30 | N11E52 | |||||||||
| 14133 | 2025.06.30 2025.07.02 |
1 | S17W79 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
was AR S11214 spotless location: S18W77 |
||||
| S11215 | 2025.07.01 | S19E14 |
 |
||||||||
| S11216 | 2025.07.02 | 2 | 2 | S29W63 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11217 | 2025.07.02 | 4 | 3 | S20W01 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 38 | 96 | 52 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 148 | 236 | 172 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 72 | 138 | 94 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 163 | 130 | 138 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.8 (+1.4) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.0 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (146.0 projected, -5.2) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.6 | (138.2 projected, -7.8) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (131.8 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (127.2 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (121.9 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (117.0 projected, -4.9) | 21.2 |
| 2025.07 | 127.8 (1) | 9.4 (2A) / 146 (2B) / 134.0 (2C) | (112.8 projected, -4.2) | (6.1) | |
| 2025.08 | (108.1 projected, -4.7) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (103.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (99.9 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (97.6 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (96.0 projected, -1.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (STAR 1K 365d peak: 236.1, STAR 2K
365d peak: 364.3, NOAA SN 365d peak: 156.0, ISN 365d peak: 163.6). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
