The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on December 28 under the weak influence of effects associated with CH1336. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 411 and 482 km/sec, averaging 455 km/sec (-29 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 187.7 - decreasing 9.0 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 154.60 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 142.2 (41 days ago, this is 46.2% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 8.1). Three hour interval K indices: 21122332 (planetary), 21132222 (Boulder), 42132434 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 352) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 225) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14312 [N19W72] was quiet and stable.
AR 14316 [S07W70] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14317 [N11W36] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14318 [N05W25] was the source of the largest flare of the day.
AR 14319 [S09W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14320 [N05E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14321 [S11W62] decayed losing area and
spots. The magnetic delta configuration weakened as the large penumbra
appears to be fragmenting. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 03:38, C1.8 @ 09:20 UT
AR 14323 [S15E49] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14324 [N24E51] has a small magnetic delta configuration in a
central penumbra and could produce further M flares. C1 flares: C1.8 @
09:47, C1.8 @ 09:56, C1.8 @ 10:56, C1.9 @ 16:55 UT
AR 14325 [S09E46] developed slowly gaining a small magnetic delta
configuration in the central spot section. M class flaring is possible. C1
flares: C1.9 @ 17:45 UT
New AR 14326 [S03W33] emerged on December 27 and decayed the
next day when it was numbered by SWPC. The spot group could soon become
spotless.
New AR 14327 [S21W22] emerged on early in the
day with a few spots, then decayed slowly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11712 [S15W14] was quiet and stable.
AR S11724 [S15E67] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11727 [N17W31] emerged with tiny spots before noon, then
decayed slowly.
New AR S11729 [S24E77] rotated into view with a mature spot.
New AR S11730 [S29W24] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.7 | 00:30 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 00:43 | 14324 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare behind the northwest limb | |
| C2.0 | 01:47 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 04:31 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 05:39 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 05:54 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 06:08 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 06:29 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 06:48 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 06:58 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 07:03 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.0 | 07:28 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 07:34 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 08:00 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 08:20 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 08:57 | behind northwest limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 10:26 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 12:08 | 14324 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 13:08 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 13:33 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 13:52 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 14:18 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 14:29 | 14321 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 15:09 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 15:31 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 16:23 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 19:29 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.0 | 20:08 | 14325 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| M1.3 | 21:13 | S07E47 | 14325 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14324 |
| C4.2 | 21:32 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.8 | 21:53 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| M4.2/2N | 22:39 | N07W27 | 14318 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 23:53 | 14325 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.2 | 00:02 | 14324 | GOES18 | flare began at 23:57 UT |
December 26-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
December 28: A partial halo CME was observed after the M4 event in AR
14318. Components of the CME could reach Earth on December 31.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A huge recurrent positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1336) was Earth facing on December 19-27. A recurrent northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1337) will rotate across the central meridian on December 28-30.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on December 29-30. Quiet to minor storm levels are likely on December 31-January 2 due to effects associated with CH1337, possibly with contributions from the December 28 CME on December 31 and January 1.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14312 | 2025.12.17 2025.12.18 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N19W74 | 0020 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S11695 area: 0050 location: N19W73 |
| 14314 | 2025.12.19 2025.12.20 |
N24W80 |
was AR S11698 location: N25W72 |
||||||||
| 14315 | 2025.12.19 2025.12.20 |
N21W63 |
was AR S11700 location: N21W53 |
||||||||
| 14316 | 2025.12.20 2025.12.20 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S07W72 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11704 area: 0004 location: S07W70 |
| 14317 | 2025.12.20 2025.12.20 |
6 | 20 | 13 | N12W34 | 0110 | DAO | CKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11705 area: 0330 location: N11W36 |
| 14318 | 2025.12.21 2025.12.22 |
22 | 4 | N05W30 | 0040 | BXO |
 |
 |
was S11707 location: N05W25 |
||
| 14319 | 2025.12.21 2025.12.22 |
2 | 15 | 7 | S12W12 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11708 area: 0030 location: S09W09 |
| 14321 | 2025.12.22 2025.12.24 |
16 | 25 | 14 | S11W64 | 0510 | DKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta was AR S11709 area: 0410 location: S11W62 |
| 14320 | 2025.12.22 2025.12.23 |
1 | N06W02 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11710 location: N05E01 |
|||
| S11712 | 2025.12.23 | 6 | 1 | S15W14 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11713 | 2025.12.23 | S20E01 | |||||||||
| S11716 | 2025.12.24 | S15W46 | |||||||||
| S11717 | 2025.12.24 | S16W57 | |||||||||
| 14323 | 2025.12.25 2025.12.26 |
1 | 27 | 10 | S14E53 | 0020 | HSX | CRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11719 area: 0080 location: S15E49 |
| 14325 | 2025.12.26 2025.12.27 |
4 | 31 | 16 | S09E44 | 0070 | DAO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta was AR S11720 area: 0300 location: S09E46 |
| 14324 | 2025.12.26 2025.12.26 |
8 | 20 | 13 | N25E51 | 0230 | DAO | DSC |
 |
 |
beta-delta was AR S11721 area: 0390 location: N24E51 |
| S11722 | 2025.12.26 | N15E27 |
 |
||||||||
| 14326 | 2025.12.27 2025.12.28 |
2 | 2 | S03W34 | 0000 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11723 area: 0003 location: S03W33 |
|
| S11724 | 2025.12.27 | 2 | 1 | S15E67 | 0015 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11725 | 2025.12.27 | N23E03 |
 |
||||||||
| S11726 | 2025.12.27 | N19W19 |
 |
||||||||
| S11727 | 2025.12.28 | 2 | 1 | N17W31 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 14327 | 2025.12.28 2025.12.28 |
2 | 5 | 2 | S20W21 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
was AR S11728 area: 0020 location: S21W22 |
|
| S11729 | 2025.12.28 | 1 | 1 | S24E77 | 0050 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S11730 | 2025.12.28 | 1 | S24W24 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 43 | 182 | 85 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 143 | 352 | 225 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 78 | 234 | 137 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 157 | 194 | 180 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.5 (-4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (124.4 projected, -4.1) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (121.7 projected, -2.7) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (118.0 projected, -3.7) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (114.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (110.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (107.9 projected, -2.2) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 158.5 (1) | 105.2 (2A) / 116.5 (2B) / 135.4 (2C) ISN average to date: 117. At this level the SSN for June 2025 will become 124.4 |
(106.3 projected, -1.6) | (14.5) | |
| 2026.01 | (102.3 projected, -4.0) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (98.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (93.8 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (90.1 projected, -3.7) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (88.9 projected, -1.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
