The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels on December 3. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 363 and 557 km/sec, averaging 396 km/sec (-29 km/sec compared to the previous day). A CIR associated with CH1333 arrived early in the day while the high speed stream was observed arriving at ACE after 16h UT. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 209.5 - increasing 45.8 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 157.37 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 145.4 (41 days ago, this is 48.3% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 31 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 31.1). Three hour interval K indices: 22234475 (planetary), 12255454 (Boulder), 32134576 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 366) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 227) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14294 [S15E22] decayed further in the trailing spot section
with no magnetic delta configurations remaining. There are, however,
magnetic deltas both in the leading an intermediate spot section. A
major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 06:46, C1.7 @ 09:45 UT
AR 14295 [N05E27] was quiet and stable.
AR 14296 [S13E35] displayed few significant changes and still has a
magnetic delta configuration in a southern intermediate penumbra. A major
flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 09:18 UT
AR 14297 [S11W39] decayed further and could soon become spotless.
AR 14298 [S17E04] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.9 @ 03:07 UT
AR 14299 [N23E45] was mostly unchanged with the trailing spot section
featuring a magnetic
delta configuration. A major flare is possible.
AR 14300 [N07E52] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
A major impulsive M6.0 flare was recorded at 02:50 UT
on December 4.
New AR 14301 [S07W43] emerged on December 2 and was numbered by SWPC
next day as the region gained many spots and mature penumbra on the leader
spots. C flares are likely. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 11:19 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11650 [N20E07] was quiet and stable.
AR S11659 [S03W55] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11660 [N17E17] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.3 | 00:10 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 00:47 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 01:01 | 14300 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 01:31 | N24E44 | 14299 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 01:53 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 02:23 | 14301 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 03:24 | 14301 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 03:55 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:22 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:17 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 05:34 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:51 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 06:26 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 10:06 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 10:16 | 14301 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.4 | 12:52 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C3.3 | 13:46 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C3.9 | 14:09 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 14:48 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C3.3 | 16:02 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 16:30 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 16:49 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 18:00 | 14301 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 18:35 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 19:18 | 14296 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 20:02 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 20:26 | 14296 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 20:55 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 21:12 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.9 | 21:31 | 14299 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:56 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 22:22 | behind NW limb | 14288 | GOES18 | |
| C4.1 | 22:48 | 14298 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.0 | 23:13 | 14294 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 23:50 | 14301 | GOES18 |
December 2-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
December 1: AR 14299 was the source of an X1.9 flare peaking at 02:49
UT. A fast and wide partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery. The CME
may have reached Earth on December 3 as part of the initial disturbance
associated with CH1333.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1333) was Earth facing on November 30 - December 3.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on December 4-6 due to effects associated with CH1333.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14290 | 2025.11.20 2025.11.21 |
1 | S09W87 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
was AR S11627 rotated out of view |
||||
| 14291 | 2025.11.21 2025.11.22 |
1 | S11W85 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
was AR S11630 rotated out of view |
||||
| 14293 | 2025.11.22 2025.11.24 |
N08W82 |
was AR S11633 location: N08W73 |
||||||||
| S11639 | 2025.11.25 | N09W36 |
|
||||||||
| 14297 | 2025.11.26 2025.12.01 |
2 | 4 | 1 | S12W40 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11640 location: S11W39 |
| 14294 | 2025.11.28 2025.11.28 |
55 | 110 | 62 | S15E18 | 1445 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11642 area: 1400 location: S15E22 |
| S11644 | 2025.11.28 | N18W10 | |||||||||
| 14296 | 2025.11.29 2025.11.30 |
25 | 46 | 31 | S14E37 | 0620 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11647 area: 1310 location: S13E35 |
| 14295 | 2025.11.29 2025.11.30 |
4 | 15 | 5 | N04E25 | 0050 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11648 area: 0080 location: N05E27 |
| 14299 | 2025.11.30 2025.12.01 |
15 | 20 | 11 | N23E42 | 0140 | DAO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta was AR S11649 area: 0380 location: N23E45 |
| S11650 | 2025.11.30 | 7 | N20E07 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S11651 | 2025.11.30 | N10W46 | |||||||||
| S11652 | 2025.11.30 | N18W50 | |||||||||
| S11653 | 2025.12.01 | S62W13 |
  |
reversed polarities | |||||||
| 14298 | 2025.12.01 | 4 | 10 | 5 | S16E04 | 0110 | CSO | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0260 location: S17E04 |
| 14300 | 2025.12.01 2025.12.02 |
6 | 12 | 5 | N07E53 | 0030 | CSI | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11654 area: 0100 location: N07E52 |
| S11656 | 2025.12.01 | S14W34 | |||||||||
| 14301 | 2025.12.02 2025.12.03 |
14 | 27 | 15 | S07W44 | 0050 | CRI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11658 area: 0150 location: S07W43 |
| S11659 | 2025.12.02 | 1 | S03W54 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11660 | 2025.12.03 | 4 | 2 | N17E17 | 0012 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 127 | 256 | 137 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 227 | 366 | 227 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 176 | 314 | 195 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 250 | 201 | 182 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.5 (-4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (124.4 projected, -4.1) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (121.7 projected, -2.7) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (118.0 projected, -3.7) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (114.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (110.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (107.9 projected, -2.2) | 21.3 |
| 2025.12 | 202.4 (1) | 18.7 (2A) / 193 (2B) / 126.6 (2C) | (106.3 projected, -1.6) | (16.1) | |
| 2026.01 | (102.3 projected, -4.0) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (98.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (93.8 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (90.1 projected, -3.7) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (88.9 projected, -1.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
