The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels on November 6, initially under the influence of CIR effects associated with CH1328. The high speed stream arrived after 07h UT. There was no clear evidence of CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 418 and 726 km/sec, averaging 552 km/sec (+139 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux decreased to background levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 163.7 - increasing 43.0 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 160.19 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 151.0 (41 days ago, this is 51.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 48 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 47.5). Three hour interval K indices: 57642345 (planetary), 57543335 (Boulder), 56533356 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 250) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 152) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14272 [N21E11] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14273 [S13W23] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14274 [N24E28] gained spots and area. The two major penumbral
areas drifted slowly apart. Both have large magnetic delta configuration and
X class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 01:28, C1.5 @ 02:26, C1.3 @
02:47, C1.8 @ 08:28, C1.9 @ 08:37, C1.8 @ 09:44, C1.5 @ 10:16, C1.6 @ 10:36,
C1.4 @ 15:47, C1.6 @ 15:58, C1.4 @ 16:27, C1.5 @ 17:38, C1.8 @ 21:08, C1.9 @
23:27 UT
AR 14275 [N07E31] decayed slowly and produced a few flares. C1
flares: C1.8 @ 02:14 UT
New AR 14276 [S17E65] rotated into view on November 5 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day. The region has a fairly weak magnetic delta
configuration in the northern spot section and produced the only M flare of
the day. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 03:52 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11582 [N11E59] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.8 @ 08:19 UT
AR S11583 [S06E63] developed slowly and produced several low level C
flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 00:55, C1.4 @ 14:14, C1.6 @ 14:36, C1.9 @ 15:22,
C1.6 @ 16:15, C1.6 @ 17:06, C1.5 @ 18:03 UT
New AR S11586 [N04W34] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.7 | 00:12 | N25E41 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C3.8 | 00:15 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 03:02 | 14274 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14275 | |
| C3.1 | 03:17 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 04:06 | N07E49 | 14275 | GOES18 | |
| M1.1 | 04:31 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.5 | 04:42 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 05:20 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 05:36 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:47 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 06:32 | N25E39 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C5.3 | 06:56 | N25E39 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 07:26 | S09W18 | 14273 | GOES18 | |
| C3.8 | 09:01 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 11:25 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 11:39 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 11:53 | S11583 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 11:59 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.2 | 13:06 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 13:17 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.6 | 18:25 | N24E17 | 14272 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR S11583 |
| C2.3 | 19:07 | S11582 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.3 | 20:02 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 22:09 | S05E67 | S11583 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 22:45 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 22:57 | S11583 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 23:22 | 14274 | GOES18 |
November 4: An asymmetric full halo CME (most easily seen in
GOES-19/CCOR-1 imagery) was observed after the major
X1.8 flare in AR 14274. The main part of the ejecta is not headed
towards Earth, however, shock effects are possible on November 7.
November 5: Full halo CMEs were observed after both the M7 (11:19 UT)
and M8 (22:07 UT) major flares in AR 14274. These CMEs will likely reach
Earth on November 7 and 8.
November 6: No obvious CMEs were observed in available coronograph
imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1328) rotated across the central meridian on November 3-6.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on November 7-9 due to effects from CH1328 and multiple CMEs.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14271 | 2025.10.28 2025.10.30 |
S09W44 |
was AR S11567 location: S09W35 |
||||||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
2 | 11 | 4 | N22E10 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11574 area: 0100 location: N21E11 |
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
34 | 75 | 40 | N24E26 | 0670 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 1820 location: N24E28 |
| 14273 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.02 |
3 | 11 | 6 | S12W28 | 0030 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11576 area: 0060 location: S13W23 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
7 | 33 | 11 | N06E34 | 0180 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11577 location: N07E31 area: 0250 |
| S11578 | 2025.11.03 | S02W30 | |||||||||
| S11580 | 2025.11.04 | N28W49 | |||||||||
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
8 | 17 | 11 | S17E67 | 0040 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11581 area: 0280 location: S17E65 |
| S11582 | 2025.11.05 | 7 | 4 | N11E59 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11583 | 2025.11.05 | 15 | 6 | S06E63 | 0060 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S11584 | 2025.11.05 | S28E06 |
 |
||||||||
| S11585 | 2025.11.05 | S30W28 |
 |
||||||||
| S11586 | 2025.11.06 | 1 | N04W34 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 54 | 170 | 82 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 104 | 250 | 152 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 84 | 206 | 118 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 114 | 138 | 122 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 139.0 (1) | 14.2 (2A) / 70.8 (2B) / 119.4 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (21.5) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
