The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on August 15. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 227.4 - increasing 18.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 169.35. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 169.35 on February 14, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 10102112 (planetary), 21112423 (Boulder), 21003223 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 372) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 236) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13780 [S08W75] decayed further and produced
only a few flares as the spot group began to transit the west limb.
AR 13781 [N15W68] was quiet and stable.
AR 13782 [N04W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13784 [N15W18] still has a strong magnetic delta configuration in the
main penumbra. Some loss of area was observed and the spot group appears to
be slowly decaying. X flares are
possible.
AR 13785 [S11W05] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13786 [S22W53] developed slowly as new flux emerged in the
trailing spot section. Many C flares were recorded during the day.
AR 13787 [N19W52] reemerged with tiny spots.
AR 13788 [S07E07] was quiet and stable.
AR 13789 [N27E12] developed and gained many tiny spots. C flares are
possible.
New AR 13790 [S12E74] rotated into view with mostly small spots. The
region produced several flares while behind the southeast limb and was
mostly quiet during its first day on the visible disk.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10015 [N21W36] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10016 [S10W38] was quiet and stable.
S10019 [S18E60] gained a few spots and was
quiet.
New region S10021 [N06E03] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10022 [S07E35] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.0 | 00:29 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 01:16 | 13790 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.0 | 01:24 | N14W08 | 13784 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 |
| C5.6 | 01:36 | 13790 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 02:09 | N11W07 | 13784 | GOES16 | |
| M1.1 | 03:48 | S10W62 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3 | 04:12 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 04:19 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 04:54 | 13786 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 | |
| C4.2 | 05:05 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 05:24 | N13W08 | 13784 | GOES16 | |
| C5.8 | 05:54 | N15W10 | 13784 | GOES16 | |
| C4.9 | 06:14 | 13784 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare behind the northeast limb | |
| C5.0 | 06:22 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 06:28 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 08:07 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 08:57 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 09:11 | S22W43 | 13786 | GOES16 | |
| C4.6 | 10:57 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 11:40 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.7 | 11:50 | S24W44 | 13786 | GOES16 | |
| C5.1 | 12:08 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 13:09 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 13:19 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 13:54 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 14:07 | 13780 | GOES16 | SWPC attributes this to smaller, simultaneous flare in AR 13786 | |
| C5.4 | 14:11 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 15:04 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 17:35 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 19:05 | 13784 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13790 | |
| C4.0 | 19:15 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 20:48 | 13790 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13784 | |
| C3.1 | 21:54 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 22:27 | 13780 | GOES16 |
August 13, 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
August 14: A slow moving full halo CME was observed after the X1
flare in AR 13784. The CME could reach Earth on August 17.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1235) will be rotating across the central meridian on August 13-15, however, it is likely too far to the north to cause any signifcant disturbance. A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1236) could rotate into an Earth facing position on August 19.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on August 15-16. The August 14 CME could cause unsettled to major storm levels on August 17-18.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13780 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
15 | 19 | 8 | S09W74 | 0410 | FKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0550 location: S08W75 |
| 13781 | 2024.08.04 2024.08.05 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N15W69 | 0070 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0130 location: N15W68 |
| 13782 | 2024.08.06 2024.08.07 |
2 | 8 | 2 | N03W44 | 0020 | HAX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N04W42 |
| 13783 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.08 |
1 | N11W82 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
location: N12W79 spotless |
||||
| 13784 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.09 |
23 | 58 | 26 | N15W19 | 0680 | EKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0900 location: N15W18 |
| 13786 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.11 |
13 | 27 | 13 | S22W54 | 0080 | CAO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S22W53 |
| S10006 | 2024.08.08 | S09W21 | |||||||||
| 13785 | 2024.08.09 2024.08.11 |
10 | 38 | 14 | S12W06 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S11W05 area: 0050 |
| 13787 | 2024.08.09 2024.08.11 |
3 | 1 | N17W56 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
location: N19W52 | |||
| S10011 | 2024.08.10 | S06W26 |
 |
||||||||
| 13788 | 2024.08.10 2024.08.11 |
4 | 18 | 6 | S07E09 | 0100 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S07E07 area: 0150 |
| 13789 | 2024.08.10 2024.08.14 |
23 | 10 | N26E12 | 0060 | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N27E12 |
||
| S10014 | 2024.08.11 | S27W42 | |||||||||
| S10015 | 2024.08.11 | 1 | 1 | N21W36 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10016 | 2024.08.12 | 1 | S10W38 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S10018 | 2024.08.12 | S20W10 | |||||||||
| S10019 | 2024.08.14 | 6 | 4 | S18E60 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13790 | 2024.08.15 2024.08.15 |
5 | 11 | 7 | S14E72 | 0040 | CSO | DSI |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S10022 location: S12E74 area: 0120 |
|
| S10021 | 2024.08.15 | 3 | 1 | N06E03 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10022 | 2024.08.15 | 5 | 2 | S07E35 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 74 | 222 | 96 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 164 | 372 | 236 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 119 | 274 | 148 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 180 | 205 | 189 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (137.4 projected, +6.3) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (144.1 projected, +6.7) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (148.2 projected, +4.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (152.9 projected, +4.7) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (156.9 projected, +4.0) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 (cycle peak) |
203.0 | 196.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.7 projected, +1.8) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 264.9 (1) | 112.3 (2A) / 232.1 (2B) / 233.7 (2C) | (159.1 projected, +0.4) | (20.3) | |
| 2024.09 | (161.0 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (162.8 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (160.8 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (156.4 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (150.3 projected, -6.1) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (143.0 projected, -7.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in July 2024 were the highest we've seen for a single month during solar cycle 25. The first part of August has seen very high sunspot counts, and there more than a remote possibility that we'll see activity in August approaching the most active months of solar cycle 23. With at least 4 consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to above 160. The month of the peak is currently likely to occur sometime between July and November 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
