The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on July 16 under the influence of weak CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 241.9 - increasing 45.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 163.94. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 163.94 on January 16, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.4). Three hour interval K indices: 32211322 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 54112223 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 26 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 600) and in 24 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 399) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13738 [S08W83]
produced the only major flare of the day and is rotating over the southwest
limb.
AR 13742 [S25W19] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 13743 [S09W31] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13744 [N16W15] decayed further and was unstable.
AR 13745 [S20W22] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13748 [N15E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13749 [S33E30] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13750 [S20E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13751 [S08E39] developed further and the magnetic delta configuration
enlargened. M flares are possible.
AR 13752 [N23E43] was quiet and stable.
AR 13753 [N12W35] developed further and produced M flares.
AR 13754 [N25E57] was quiet and stable.
New AR 13755 [N02E62] rotated into view on July 15 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
New AR 13756 [S17E67] rotated into view on July 15 and received its
NOAA number the following day.
New AR 13757 [N18E74] rotated partly into view on July 15 with SWPC
numbering the region the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9884 [N15W63] developed slowly and quietly.
S9895 [S08W23] developed further and \was quiet.
S9904 [N18E20] reemerged with tiny spots.
S9907 [N22E55] decayed slowly and quietly.
S9913 [S17W02] was quiet and stable.
S9914 [S07E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S9915 [N17W30] emerged with a few spots.
New region S9916 [S14W35] was split off from AR 13743 and developed
slowly.
New region S9917 [N19E49] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9918 [N07E26] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9919 [N25W59] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.0 | 00:15 | 13750 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.8 | 00:40 | 13757 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 01:38 | 13738 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 01:55 | 13757 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 01:59 | 13738 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 02:50 | 13751 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4/1N | 03:00 | N16E02 | 13744 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3 | 04:11 | 13753 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13750 | |
| C3.7 | 04:42 | S9916 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13751 | |
| C4.4 | 05.03 | 13753 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 05.45 | 13753 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 06:10 | 13757 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.6/1B | 07:37 | N11W27 | 13753 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13738 |
| C7.3/1F | 08:50 | N15W05 | 13744 | GOES16 | |
| C6.1 | 09:18 | 13743 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 10:50 | S18E37 | 13750 | GOES16 | |
| C3.4 | 11:38 | 13738 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 12:24 | 13743 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 13:06 | 13738 | GOES16 | ||
| X2.0/1B | 13:26 | S06W85 | 13738 | GOES16 | moderate type IV and strong type II radio sweeps, CME |
| C3.9 | 16:05 | 13743 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 18:09 | 13738 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 18:49 | 13751 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 19:48 | 13751 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 21:24 | N11W34 | 13753 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0 | 21:53 | 13744 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.9/1N | 22:06 | N18W10 | 13744 | GOES16 | weak type IV and moderate type II radio
sweeps partial halo CME? |
| C8.4 | 22:30 | 13744 | GOES16 |
July 14-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
July 16: The M1.9 flare in AR 13744 peaking at 22:06 UT was
associated with a moderate type II radio sweep and apparently a faint
partial halo CME. Components of this CME could reach Earth on July 19-20.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH1232) in the northern hemisphere will be rotating across the central meridian on July 14-16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 16-18 with a chance of active intervals on July 17-18 due to possible effects from CH1232.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13738 | 2024.07.04 2024.07.05 |
11 | 7 | 5 | N09W83 | 0450 | FKI | FKO |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: S08W83 typo in SWPC location area: 0900 |
| 13741 | 2024.07.07 2024.07.07 |
N09W65 | location: N10W56 | ||||||||
| 13742 | 2024.07.07 2024.07.09 |
16 | 7 | S21W39 | 0190 | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S25W19 SWPC split off the trailing spot section into AR 13747 on 2024.07.11 |
||
| 13743 | 2024.07.08 2024.07.09 |
22 | 32 | 15 | S11W30 | 0150 | EAI | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: S09W31 |
| 13745 | 2024.07.08 2024.07.10 |
7 | 27 | 15 | S19W23 | 0030 | DRO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0090 location: S20W22 |
| 13744 | 2024.07.09 2024.07.09 |
5 | 16 | 8 | N16W16 | 0090 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: N16W15 |
| S9884 | 2024.07.09 | 6 | 3 | N15W63 | 0025 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13753 | 2024.07.10 2024.07.15 |
11 | 35 | 14 | N12W36 | 0100 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N12W35 area: 0140 |
| 13748 | 2024.07.10 2024.07.12 |
6 | 18 | 6 | N15E01 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| S9893 | 2024.07.10 | N40W46 | |||||||||
| 13747 | 2024.07.11 | 2 | S26W20 | 0120 | HSX | AR 13747 is the trailing polarity section of AR 13742 | |||||
| S9895 | 2024.07.12 | 26 | 10 | S08W23 | 0100 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13750 | 2024.07.12 2024.07.13 |
6 | 27 | 14 | S20E27 | 0080 | DAO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0090 |
| 13749 | 2024.07.12 2024.07.13 |
4 | 5 | 4 | S33E29 | 0020 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0040 location: S33E30 |
| 13751 | 2024.07.13 2024.07.13 |
12 | 52 | 22 | S08E41 | 0280 | EKC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S08E39 area: 0480 |
| 13752 | 2024.07.13 2024.07.14 |
1 | 6 | 4 | N23E40 | 0030 | HSX | EAO |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N23E43 |
| S9901 | 2024.07.13 | N35W17 | |||||||||
| S9902 | 2024.07.13 | N25W38 | |||||||||
| 13754 | 2024.07.14 | 7 | 9 | 4 | N24E53 | 0050 | EAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N25E57 area: 0070 |
| S9904 | 2024.07.14 | 2 | 1 | N18E20 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9905 | 2024.07.14 | S35E11 | |||||||||
| S9906 | 2024.07.14 | S24W48 | |||||||||
| S9907 | 2024.07.15 | 2 | 1 | N22E55 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13755 | 2024.07.15 2024.07.16 |
4 | 10 | 7 | N03E61 | 0050 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N02E62 area: 0110 |
| 13756 | 2024.07.15 2024.07.16 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S18E68 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S17E67 area: 0150 |
| S9910 | 2024.07.15 | S29W11 |
 |
||||||||
| 13757 | 2024.07.15 2024.07.16 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N17E74 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0080 |
| S9912 | 2024.07.15 | N29W46 |
 |
||||||||
| S9913 | 2024.07.15 | 4 | S17W02 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S9914 | 2024.07.15 | 5 | 2 | S07E17 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9915 | 2024.07.16 | 6 | 5 | N17W30 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S9916 | 2024.07.16 | 21 | 8 | S14W35 | 0060 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S9917 | 2024.07.16 | 2 | 1 | N19E49 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9918 | 2024.07.16 | 2 | 1 | N07E26 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S991 | 2024.07.16 | 1 | N25W59 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 100 | 340 | 159 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 250 | 600 | 399 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 179 | 426 | 245 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 275 | 330 | 319 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | (128.9 projected, -0.5) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (129.4 projected, +0.5) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (130.3 projected, +0.9) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (131.0 projected, +0.7) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 (SC25 peak) | (133.2 projected, +2.2) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (134.9 projected, +1.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 193.8 (1) | 85.8 (2A) / 166.3 (2B) / 186.5 (2C) | (134.7 projected, -0.2) | (5.6) | |
| 2024.08 | (134.1 projected, -0.6) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (134.4 projected, +0.1) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (134.3 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (132.3 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (128.0 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (124.0 projected, -4.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in June 2024 were almost at the level of May 2024 and the second highest month during solar cycle 25. Looking at the projected activity for the remainder of this year, solar max now looks likely to occur between May and October 2024. A big decrease in sunspot formation in July 2024 and over the next months could change the projected maximum to earlier in 2024 or even to December 2023.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
