The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on September 3 due to weakening CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 444 and 628 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 130.5 - decreasing 39.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 153.50. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 23.5). Three hour interval K indices: 54533313 (planetary), 53543213 (Boulder), 63444435 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 244) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 138) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13415 [S08W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13416 [S22W39] decayed slowly and lost the leader spot.
Region 13417 [S09W02] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 20:05 UT
Region 13418 [N21E11] was quiet and stable.
Region 13419 [N24W50] was quiet and stable.
New region 13420 [S20E17] was first observed with spots on August 30,
then decayed slowly. New flux emerged on September 3 and the region was
subsequently numbered by SWPC. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 05:03, C1.2 @ 18:05, C1.8 @
18:59 UT
New region 13421 [N14E19] emerged on September 2 and developed
further the next day as it was numbered by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8909 [N20W01] was quiet and stable.
S8912 [N22W24] reemerged with tiny spots.
S8914 [S07W11] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S8917 [N15E36] emerged with several spots and has
potential for further development.
New region S8918 [N09W35] emerged before noon as a bipolar
group, then decayed and had only a tiny spot by the end of the day.
New region S8919 [N20W81] emerged at the northwest limb with a tiny
spot.
New region S8920 [N15E77] emerged at the
northeast limb with a tiny spot.
New region S8921 [S14E59] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
AR 13413 produced several flares from behind the northwest limb. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 00:11, C1.5 @ 01:04, C1.0 @ 02:32, C1.0 @ 03:19, C1.8 @ 04:09, C1.8 @ 17:07 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.1 | 00:23 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 06:23 | 13413 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| M6.0 | 08:36 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 10:53 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 11:45 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 12:28 | 13413 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 14:05 | 13413 | GOES16 |
September 1: A fast and wide asymmetrical partial halo CME was
observed after the M1.2 LDE in AR 13413. The CME could reach Earth on
September 4 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
September 2-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1168) was Earth facing on September 3. CH1168 may be too far to the north to cause geomagnetic effects.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on September 4 due to CME effects and quiet to active on September 5. Effects from CH1168 could cause unsettled intervals on September 6.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13415 | 2023.08.22 2023.08.22 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S09W83 | 0120 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0220 location: S08W83 |
| 13416 | 2023.08.24 2023.08.25 |
2 | S19W52 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S22W39 |
|||
| S8900 | 2023.08.27 | N10W38 |
 |
||||||||
| 13417 | 2023.08.28 2023.08.28 |
4 | 18 | 4 | S08W08 | 0040 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S09W02 area: 0030 |
| 13418 | 2023.08.29 2023.08.30 |
1 | 14 | 3 | N21E10 | 0010 | HSX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| S8905 | 2023.08.29 | N23W35 | |||||||||
| S8909 | 2023.08.30 | 4 | N20W01 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13420 | 2023.08.30 2023.09.03 |
4 | 9 | 6 | S20E16 | 0030 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S20E17 area: 0050 |
| S8912 | 2023.08.31 | 4 | 1 | N22W24 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13419 | 2023.09.01 2023.09.02 |
3 | 6 | 4 | N24W51 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N24W50 area: 0020 |
| S8914 | 2023.09.01 | 4 | 2 | S07W11 | 0070 | CAO |
 |
 |
split off from AR 13417 | ||
| S8915 | 2023.09.01 | S20E36 |
 |
||||||||
| 13421 | 2023.09.02 2023.09.03 |
5 | 15 | 9 | N15E14 | 0020 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: N14E14 |
| S8917 | 2023.09.03 | 12 | 6 | N15E36 | 0040 | DRI |
 |
beta-gamma | |||
| S8918 | 2023.09.03 | 1 | N09W35 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8919 | 2023.09.03 | 1 | N20W81 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8920 | 2023.09.03 | 1 | 1 | N15E77 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8921 | 2023.09.03 | 1 | S14E69 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 19 | 94 | 38 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 79 | 244 | 138 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 39 | 124 | 68 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 87 | 134 | 110 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.1 (+2.2) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.4 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.9 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | (121.0 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (126.3 projected, +5.3) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (131.9 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.1 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (135.5 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.9 | (137.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.3 |
| 2023.09 | 132.5 (1) | 8.0 (2A) / 79.7 (2B) / 114.3 (2C) | (140.7 projected, +3.4) | (24.4) | |
| 2023.10 | (142.5 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (145.1 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (144.2 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (141.4 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (141.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (140.8 projected, -0.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
