The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 316 and 612 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. A sudden change in the total field of the IMF at 11:07 UT at DSCOVR signalled the likely arrival of the first of the August 5 CMEs.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 169.7 - decreasing 43.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 151.26. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.3). Three hour interval K indices: 01000111 (planetary), 11211210 (Boulder), 66224256 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 268) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 179) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13387 [N19W74] produced several C and M
flares.
Region 13391 [N23W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13392 [N09W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13394 [S22E11] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.8 @
11:01 UT
Region 13395 [N13E25] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13396 [N19E07] emerged on August 6 and was numbered by
SWPC the next day.
New region 13397 [N19E49] emerged on August 6 with SWPC numbering the
region the following day.
New region 13398 [S21W43] emerged on August 4 and was assigned a NOAA
region number 3 days later.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8814 [N19W22] was quiet and stable.
S8821 [N32E37] reemerged with tiny spots. This is a reversed
polarities group.
S8828 [N22W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8831 [S13W62] was quiet and stable.
S8835 [S15E65] was quiet and stable.
S8836 [N17W01] developed slightly and was quiet.
New region S8837 [N07E59] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S8838 [S14E49] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 13386 produced these C1 flares from behind the northwest limb: C1.9 @ 03:17, C1.9 @ 08:45 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 02:16 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 03:05 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 03:26 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| M2.4 | 04:41 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 07:21 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 08:22 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 08:58 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C2.7 | 12:00 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 12:34 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 12:53 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 13:42 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 14:09 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4/1N | 14:38 | N21W71 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3 | 15:18 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 16:26 | N18W72 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| C5.0 | 17:21 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 19:29 | 13387 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4/2N | 19:51 | N18W72 | 13387 | GOES16 | |
| X1.5 | 20:46 | behind NW limb | 13386 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep, backsided full halo CME, proton event |
| C8.2 | 23:59 | 13387 | GOES16 |
August 5: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the long
duration M1.6 event in AR 13386 peaking at 07:18 UT. The CME probably
reached
Earth at noon on August 7. Another asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the
X1.6 event in AR 13386 peaking at 22:21 UT. This CME could reach Earth
on August 8.
August 6: An asymmetrical partial halo CME was observed after the
M5.5 flare in AR 13386.
August 7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed. A backsided
full halo CME was observed after the X1.5 flare in AR 13386.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1163) will be Earth facing on August 7-8.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 8-9 due to effects from the August 5 CMEs. Quiet to unsettled is possible on August 10-11 due to weak effects from CH1163.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13387 | 2023.07.26 2023.07.27 |
3 | 7 | 4 | N18W73 | 0080 | DSI | DSI |
 |
 |
area: 0200 location: N19W74 |
| 13388 | 2023.07.26 2023.07.27 |
S23W85 |
 |
||||||||
| 13389 | 2023.07.27 2023.07.27 |
S16W61 |
location: S11W67 |
||||||||
| 13390 | 2023.07.28 2023.07.27 |
S20W64 |
 |
location: S19W55 |
|||||||
| 13391 | 2023.07.28 2023.07.29 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N23W39 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 13392 | 2023.07.29 2023.07.31 |
4 | 8 | 5 | N08W47 | 0050 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0120 location: N09W49 |
| 13393 | 2023.07.29 2023.07.31 |
N17W72 | |||||||||
| S8814 | 2023.07.31 | 5 | 1 | N19W22 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13394 | 2023.08.02 2023.08.03 |
3 | 28 | 11 | S23E11 | 0140 | CSO | DHO |
 |
 |
area: 0270 location: S22E11 |
| S8817 | 2023.08.02 | S09W46 | |||||||||
| S8818 | 2023.08.02 | N17W10 | |||||||||
| 13395 | 2023.08.03 | 3 | 15 | 8 | N14E25 | 0050 | CAO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N13E25 area: 0080 |
| S8821 | 2023.08.03 | 2 | N32E37 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8822 | 2023.08.03 | S11W05 | |||||||||
| 13398 | 2023.08.04 2023.08.07 |
4 | 12 | 5 | S20W50 | 0020 | CSO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S21W43 area: 0040 |
| S8824 | 2023.08.04 | S26W28 | |||||||||
| S8825 | 2023.08.05 | N21W48 | |||||||||
| S8826 | 2023.08.05 | N34W44 | |||||||||
| S8827 | 2023.08.05 | N27W23 | |||||||||
| S8828 | 2023.08.05 | 4 | 1 | N22W01 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8829 | 2023.08.05 | N14E07 | |||||||||
| S8830 | 2023.08.05 | N18W29 | |||||||||
| S8831 | 2023.08.06 | 4 | 3 | S13W62 | 0020 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13396 | 2023.08.06 2023.08.07 |
2 | 5 | 4 | N19E06 | 0025 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 13397 | 2023.08.06 2023.08.07 |
1 | 5 | 3 | N18E47 | 0020 | HSX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N19E49 |
| S8834 | 2023.08.06 | S19E31 |
 |
||||||||
| S8835 | 2023.08.06 | 2 | 2 | S15E65 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8836 | 2023.08.06 | 2 | 1 | N17W01 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8837 | 2023.08.07 | 2 | N07E59 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8838 | 2023.08.07 | 3 | S14E49 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 21 | 108 | 49 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 101 | 268 | 179 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 56 | 150 | 91 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 111 | 147 | 143 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | 113.3 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (119.1 projected, +5.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (124.4 projected, +5.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (130.5 projected, +6.1) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (136.1 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (139.3 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (139.7 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 171.5 (1) | 27.1 (2A) / 119.9 (2B) / 147.4 (2C) | (141.5 projected, +1.8) | (12.1) | |
| 2023.09 | (145.0 projected, +3.5) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (146.8 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (149.4 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (148.6 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (145.7 projected, -2.9) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (144.3 projected, -1.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
