The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 306 and 415 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 213.5 - increasing 70.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 147.10. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 21212222 (planetary), 12322212 (Boulder), 42124433 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 384) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 232) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13360 [N23W72] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13361 [N24W49] still has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing spot section. An M flare is possible.
Region 13362 [S08W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13363 [S21E07] produced a number of small flares. A magnetic
delta structure formed in the northeastern part of the large penumbra and a
major flare is
possible.
Region 13364 [N24W12] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13366 [S10W70] decayed slowly losing all penumbra on the
trailing spots. The region was mostly quiet.
Region 13367 [N10W27] matured and was less complex than one day
earlier.
Region 13368 [S18W62] has significant polarity intermixing. Only
rudimentary penumbra is visible on many spots. An M flare is possible.
Region 13369 [S19W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13370 [S16E48] displayed no major changes and was mostly
quiet.
New region 13371 [S15E60] rotated into view on July 10 and was
numbered by SWPC the following day.
New region 13372 [N23E79] rotated into view revealing a large and
compact spot group with X flare potential. The region was very active
producing many M and C flares.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8752 [N14E34] was quiet and stable.
S8753 [S28E52] was quiet and stable.
New region S8755 [N51E08] emerged with a tiny spots at a high
latitude.
New region S8756 [S13E32] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S8757 [N21E15] emerged with a tiny spot.
A large filament eruption centered to the southwest of AR 13363, and across the central meridian, was observed beginning in SDO/AIA imagery at 18:17 UT and peaked near 20h UT. A CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 19:36 off the south pole. This quickly expanded to become an asymmetrical full halo CME.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.7 | 00:28 | 13372 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13366 | |
| C4.4 | 00:45 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 01:23 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 01:35 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 01:49 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.0 | 02:14 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 02:38 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 02:45 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 03:15 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 04:04 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.4 | 04:08 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 05:07 | 13363 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13358 by SWPC simultaneous flare in AR 13372 |
|
| C4.2 | 05:45 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 05:59 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 06:19 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 06:29 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 06:40 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 06:56 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 07:04 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 07:19 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 07:51 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 08:49 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 09:23 | N23W38 | 13361 | GOES16 | |
| C2.8 | 10:34 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 11:23 | S25E11 | 13363 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13372 |
| C3.3 | 12:02 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 12:31 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 13:00 | 13372 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13358 by SWPC simultaneous flare in AR 13361 |
|
| C7.6 | 13:34 | 13372 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to smaller flare in AR 13358 by SWPC | |
| M2.0 | 14:35 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.4 | 15:09 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 15:36 | 13363 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 16:00 | 13372 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13368 | |
| M1.1 | 16:12 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 16:57 | 13372 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13368 | |
| C6.3 | 17:30 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| M6.8 | 18:08 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 19:29 | N24E87 | 13372 | GOES16 | |
| C9.0 | 20:21 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.6 | 20:56 | 13372 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13368 | |
| C7.6 | 21:04 | 13370 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 21:34 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.8 | 22:15 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 23:01 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 23:37 | 13368 | GOES16 |
July 9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were
observed.
July 10: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the M2
flare in AR 13366 at 03:55 UT. The main part of the ejecta is not headed
towards Earth, however, components of the CME will likely reach us either
late on July 12 or on July
13 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
July 11: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after 19:36 UT
following a large filament eruption near and to the southwest of AR 13363.
The CME could reach Earth on July 14 and cause unsettled to major storm
conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1159) rotated across the central meridian on July 10. CH1159 has lost a large part of its area since July 7 due to the development of AR 13367. A large trans equatorial area of weak corona has become CH1160. CH1160 will be Earth facing July 11-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
A mostly quiet geomagnetic field is expected most of July 12. The arrival of the July 10 CME is expected either late on July 12 or during the first half of July 13 and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Effects from CH1159 could contribute to an initially quiet to active field on July 14. The July 11 CME could reach Earth on July 14 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions. CH1160 could cause quiet to active conditions on July 15-16.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13359 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
S21W82 |
 |
|
|||||||
| 13366 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.07 |
7 | 10 | 4 | S11W67 | 0120 | CSO | CKO |
 |
 |
area: 0350 location: S10W70 |
| 13360 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
5 | 7 | 3 | N25W72 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: N23W72 |
| 13368 | 2023.07.02 2023.07.09 |
14 | 32 | 15 | S17W64 | 0100 | DAO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta |
| 13361 | 2023.07.02 2023.07.04 |
20 | 27 | 13 | N25W51 | 0250 | DHI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N24W49 area: 0360 |
| 13362 | 2023.07.04 2023.07.05 |
1 | 7 | 4 | S08W20 | 0030 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S08W18 area: 0060 |
| S8733 | 2023.07.04 | N30W49 | |||||||||
| 13363 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
21 | 43 | 20 | S21E05 | 0780 | CKO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: S21E07 area: 1030 |
| 13364 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
1 | 10 | 4 | N25W12 | 0010 | AXX | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N24W12 area: 0040 |
| 13365 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.07 |
S36W77 |
 |
location: S34W76 |
|||||||
| S8739 | 2023.07.06 | N09W51 | |||||||||
| 13367 | 2023.07.07 2023.07.08 |
22 | 33 | 15 | N10W27 | 0160 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0270 |
| S8743 | 2023.07.07 | N24W34 | |||||||||
| 13369 | 2023.07.08 2023.07.09 |
4 | 8 | 3 | S18W51 | 0060 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S19W49 |
| S8746 | 2023.07.08 | S29W16 | |||||||||
| 13370 | 2023.07.09 2023.07.10 |
8 | 16 | 9 | S14E47 | 0050 | DAO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: S16E48 |
| S8748 | 2023.07.09 | N31W07 | |||||||||
| S8749 | 2023.07.09 | S02W43 | |||||||||
| S8750 | 2023.07.09 | S32W58 | |||||||||
| 13371 | 2023.07.10 2023.07.11 |
1 | 5 | 2 | S15E59 | 0020 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 location: S15E60 |
| S8752 | 2023.07.10 | 5 | 2 | N14E34 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8753 | 2023.07.10 | 3 | 1 | S28E52 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13372 | 2023.07.11 2023.07.11 |
3 | 12 | 7 | N22E75 | 0270 | HKX | EKC |
 |
was AR S8754 location: N23E79 area: 1050 |
|
| S8755 | 2023.07.11 | 1 | N51E08 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8756 | 2023.07.11 | 4 | S13E32 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8757 | 2023.07.11 | 1 | N21E15 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 107 | 224 | 102 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 227 | 384 | 232 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 172 | 289 | 167 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 250 | 211 | 186 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.7 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.5 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.6 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (127.0 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (132.7 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.9 |
| 2023.07 | 172.1 (1) | 52.5 (2A) / 148.0 (2B) / 171.2 (2C) | (135.4 projected, -0.5) | (6.2) | |
| 2023.08 | (136.4 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.8 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (141.6 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (144.2 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (143.4 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (140.1 projected, -3.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
