The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 26 due to weak effects from CH1136. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 540 and 643 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 159.4 - decreasing 1.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 138.55). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33211132 (planetary), 22112332 (Boulder), 42211155 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 306) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 186) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13256 [S21W39] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 21:41 UT
Region 13257 [S27W21] decayed slowly and was mostly quietly. C1
flares: C1.9 @ 02:25 UT
Region 13259 [S16W26] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13260 [N23W20] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13262 [S18E18] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @
05:51, C1.3 @ 14:42 UT
Region 13263 [N18W28] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13264 [N15E46] gained a few spots and was quiet.
New region 13265 [N20W02] was first observed with spots on March 20.
New flux emerged on March 25 and the region was number by SWPC on March 26.
C flares are possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8389 [N24W57] decayed slowly and was quiet.
S8392 [S22E01] was quiet and stable.
S8398 [N20E20] was quiet and stable.
New region S8399 [N15E01] emerged after noon with a few spots.
New region S8400 [N09E83] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S8401 [S18W78] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 04:06 | S21E04 | 13256 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13259 by SWPC |
| C2.3 | 05:06 | S19E33 | 13262 | GOES16 | |
| C2.8 | 15:00 | 13263 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 17:08 | S21W29 | 13256 | GOES16 |
March 24-26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1136) was Earth facing on March 20-22. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1137) began to rotate across the central meridian on March 23 and then collapsed. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1138) will be Earth facing on March 27-28.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet conditions are expected for March 27-29. Quiet to minor storm is likely on March 30-31 due to effects from CH1138.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13256 | 2023.03.16 2023.03.17 |
18 | 37 | 20 | S23W45 | 0280 | EHO | FKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0400 location: S21W39 |
| 13257 | 2023.03.18 2023.03.18 |
5 | 17 | 8 | S28W24 | 0160 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S27W21 |
| 13259 | 2023.03.18 2023.03.19 |
7 | 20 | 8 | S21W31 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S16W26 SWPC location is far off location: 0030 |
| 13258 | 2023.03.18 | 6 | N18W61 | 0040 | CAO |
spotless location: N18W59 SWPC counts the spots of AR S8389 |
|||||
| 13260 | 2023.03.18 2023.03.19 |
3 | 10 | 4 | N23W21 | 0160 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0210 location: N23W20 |
| S8377 | 2023.03.19 | N24W40 | |||||||||
| S8381 | 2023.03.20 | S42W40 | |||||||||
| 13265 | 2023.03.20 2023.03.26 |
4 | 24 | 8 | N21W04 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N20W02 |
| 13262 | 2023.03.21 2023.03.22 |
1 | 7 | 4 | S19E17 | 0130 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0190 location: S18E18 |
| S8386 | 2023.03.21 | N19W49 | |||||||||
| 13263 | 2023.03.22 2023.03.24 |
7 | 23 | 11 | N17W30 | 0060 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: N18W28 |
| S8388 | 2023.03.22 | S21E32 |
 |
||||||||
| S8389 | 2023.03.23 | 5 | 3 | N24W57 | 0120 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13264 | 2023.03.23 2023.03.24 |
1 | 9 | 5 | N16E44 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N15E46 area: 0110 |
| S8391 | 2023.03.23 | S12E15 |
 |
||||||||
| S8392 | 2023.03.23 | 4 | S22E01 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8393 | 2023.03.23 | N39W27 | |||||||||
| S8396 | 2023.03.24 | S24W49 | |||||||||
| S8397 | 2023.03.24 | N07W41 |
 |
||||||||
| S8398 | 2023.03.25 | 4 | 2 | N20E20 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8399 | 2023.03.26 | 4 | 3 | N15E01 | 0025 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S8400 | 2023.03.26 | 1 | N09E83 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8401 | 2023.03.26 | 1 | S18W78 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 52 | 166 | 76 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 142 | 306 | 186 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 92 | 215 | 125 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 156 | 168 | 149 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.3 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.0 projected, +4.7) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.2 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.0 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.8 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.8 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.9 projected, +5.1) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 159.2 (1) | 91.9 (2A) / 109.5 (2B) / 136.7 (2C) | (122.0 projected, +3.1) | (15.8) | |
| 2023.04 | (127.4 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.2 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.4 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (135.9 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (136.9 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
