Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 25, 2023 at 07:40 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 4, 2023)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (February 1, 2023) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (February 1, 2023) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (February 1, 2023) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (February 1, 2023) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (January 21, 2023) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 24. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 371 and 685 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 164.1 - increasing 26.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 134.51). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 31212000 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 22222000 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 255) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 172) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13229 [N26W35] developed after noon as new negative polarity flux emerged just northwest of the leading positive polarity spots. This development may have contributed to destabilizing a nearby filament and subsequently the long duration M3 flare later in the day. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 18:09 UT
Region 13230 [S22W06] became slightly more complex as new positive polarity flux emerged to the immediate south of the leader spots. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 11:28, C1.4 @ 14:52 UT
Region 13234 [N24E17] developed further and still has a magnetic delta. A major flare is possible.
Region 13235 [N19W03] lost a little area and still has a magnetic delta. Further minor M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 00:30, C1.5 @ 02:06, C1.7 @ 02:59 UT
Region 13236 [S27E08] developed further and gained a magnetic delta structure in a central northern penumbra. M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 13:54 UT
New region 13237 [S12E24] emerged on February 23 and was numbered the following day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S8307 [N12E05] emerged with a few spots.
New region S8308 [S22E32] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.0 00:48   13236 GOES16  
C8.7/1F 06:12 S24E07 13230 GOES16  
C6.8 07:09   13235 GOES16  
C2.1 09:41 N23E38 13234 GOES16  
C2.9 13:09 S27E14 13236 GOES16  
M1.2 17:15   13235 GOES16  
M3.7/2B 20:30   13229 GOES16 moderate type IV radio sweep
LDE, fast full halo CME. Probably triggered by nearby filament eruption.
Proton flux enhancement
C8.9 23:00   13235 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 22-23: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
February 24: A fast asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the M3 flare in AR 13229. The CME could reach Earth sometime between late on February 26 and noon on February 27.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1132) will be Earth facing on February 24-25.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on February 25-26. The February 24 CME could reach Earth between late on February 26 and noon on February 27 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions. On February 27-28 effects from CH1132 could contribute further to the disturbed geomagnetic field.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13229 2023.02.16
2023.02.16
12 28 14 N25W32 0150 ESO EAI beta-gamma
S8286 2023.02.17       S10W37          
13230 2023.02.17
2023.02.18
11 17 10 S22W08 0120 CSO DAO  
13233 2023.02.18
2023.02.20
      N14W56         location: N18W45
S8295 2023.02.19       S23W38          
S8298 2023.02.20       N14W07            
13234 2023.02.20
2023.02.20
25 56 33 N25E19 0580 EKC FKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0910

location: N24E17

S8301 2023.02.21       S12E11            
13235 2023.02.22
2023.02.23
6 25 13 N19W06 0040 DAO DRI beta-delta

location: N19W03

area: 0070

S8303 2023.02.22       S25W24        
13236 2023.02.23
2023.02.23
14 35 25 S28E05 0080 DAI DAC beta-delta

location: S27E08

area: 0300

 

13237 2023.02.23
2023.02.24
2 4 3 S12E23 0010 BXO DRO area: 0030
S8306 2023.02.23       N12E35          
S8307 2023.02.24   5 4 N12E05 0020   CRO    
S8308 2023.02.24   5   S22E32 0008   BXO    
Total spot count: 70 175 102  
Sunspot number: 130 255 172  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 100 209 136  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 143 140 138  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.7 (+4.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.7 (+4.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.0 (+4.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.2 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 80.9 (+3.7) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 86.5 (+5.6) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 74.6 (92.4 projected, +5.9) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.0 (97.4 projected, +5.0) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (100.5 projected, +3.1) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (103.4 projected, +2.9) 9.33
2022.12 147.9 143.4 113.1 (108.2 projected, +4.8) 10.99
2023.01 182.4 176.6 143.6 (114.2 projected, +6.0) 8.73
2023.02 168.7 (1)   107.8 (2A) / 125.8 (2B) / 145.9 (2C) (119.2 projected, +5.0) (10.7)
2023.03       (122.3 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (127.7 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (133.5 projected, +5.8)  
2023.06       (136.8 projected, +3.3)  
2023.07       (136.3 projected, -0.5)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.