The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on February 26. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 412 and 761 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. A solar wind shock was recorded at 18:43 UT at DSCOVR, the arrival of the February 24 CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 159.0 - increasing 23.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 134.83). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.8). Three hour interval K indices: 33343256 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 44423346 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 242) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 173) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13229 [N26W61] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13230 [S22W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13234 [N24W10] gained a weak magnetic delta in the northern
part of the large leading penumbra. A major flare is possible. C1 flares:
C1.8 @ 22:43, C1.6 @ 23:52 UT
Region 13235 [N19W29] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13236 [S27W18] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13237 [S13W04] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8295 [S22W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8311 [S20E49] was quiet and stable.
New region S8314 [N09E78] rotated into view
with a mature spot.
New region S8315 [S08E01] emerged with tiny spots.
A C1.9 flare was recorded at 20:53 UT from a location behind the northeast limb.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.1 | 08:16 | 13234 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13236 | |
| C2.6 | 08:56 | S8314 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 12:00 | 13235 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 12:51 | 13234 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 13:07 | 13234 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 13:35 | 13234 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 14:56 | 13234 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 19:23 | 13234 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 21:06 | 13234 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:18 | 13234 | GOES16 |
February 24: A fast asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the
M3 flare in AR 13229. The CME reached Earth late on February 26.
February 25: A fast asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the
M6 flare in AR 13229. The CME could reach Earth sometime between noon and
midnight on
February 27.
February 26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1132) was Earth facing on February 24-25.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Unsettled to major storm conditions are likely on February 27 due to CME effects, an isolated severe storm interval is possible. The February 25 CME could reach Earth between noon and midnight on February 27 and cause unsettled to severe storm conditions. On February 27-28 effects from CH1132 could contribute further to the disturbed geomagnetic field. March 1 could see quiet to active conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13229 | 2023.02.16 2023.02.16 |
7 | 7 | 5 | N25W60 | 0130 | ESO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: N26W61 |
| 13230 | 2023.02.17 2023.02.18 |
10 | 7 | 2 | S22W36 | 0110 | CSO | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S22W32 area: 0070 |
| 13233 | 2023.02.18 2023.02.20 |
N14W84 | location: N18W58 | ||||||||
| S8295 | 2023.02.19 | 4 | 3 | S22W67 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8298 | 2023.02.20 | N14W33 | |||||||||
| 13234 | 2023.02.20 2023.02.20 |
25 | 62 | 38 | N25W09 | 0580 | EKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0760 location: N24W10 |
| S8301 | 2023.02.21 | S12W15 | |||||||||
| 13235 | 2023.02.22 2023.02.23 |
5 | 7 | 2 | N19W34 | 0030 | CAO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N19W29 |
| S8303 | 2023.02.22 | S25W50 | |||||||||
| 13236 | 2023.02.23 2023.02.23 |
11 | 43 | 27 | S28W23 | 0070 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S27W18 area: 0220
|
| 13237 | 2023.02.23 2023.02.24 |
2 | 5 | 2 | S12W05 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S13W04 |
| S8306 | 2023.02.23 | N12E09 | |||||||||
| S8307 | 2023.02.24 | N13W21 |
 |
||||||||
| S8308 | 2023.02.24 | S17E03 |
 |
||||||||
| S8309 | 2023.02.25 | N13E11 |
 |
||||||||
| S8310 | 2023.02.25 | S20E25 |
 |
||||||||
| S8311 | 2023.02.25 | 2 | S20E49 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8312 | 2023.02.25 | S38W36 |
 |
||||||||
| S8313 | 2023.02.25 | N18E22 |
 |
||||||||
| S8314 | 2023.02.26 | 1 | 1 | N09E78 | 0120 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S8315 | 2023.02.26 | 4 | 3 | S08E01 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 60 | 142 | 83 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 120 | 242 | 173 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 90 | 175 | 116 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 132 | 133 | 138 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (92.4 projected, +5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.4 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.5 projected, +3.1) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.4 projected, +2.9) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (108.2 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (114.2 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.7 (1) | 116.7 (2A) / 125.6 (2B) / 149.2 (2C) | (119.2 projected, +5.0) | (11.3) | |
| 2023.03 | (122.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (127.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.8 projected, +3.3) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (136.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
