|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 4, 2023)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-25 (February 1, 2023)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24-25 progress (February 1, 2023)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020)||POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]|
|Comparison of cycles 21-25 (February 1, 2023)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (February 1, 2023)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (January 21, 2023)||Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)|
|Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing||Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing|
The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 385 and 488 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 199.7 - decreasing 28.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 132.37). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22221122 (planetary), 12322222 (Boulder), 33222244 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 18 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 397) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 243) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13213 [N30W62] decayed slowly and
was mostly quiet.
Region 13214 [N12W45] produced flares early in the day and was quiet after noon.
Region 13215 [N22W21] was quiet and stable.
Region 13216 [N25W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 13217 [S11E22] decayed significantly and barely has penumbra on positive polarity spots. There is still a chance of M class flares.
Region 13218 [N10E05] was quiet and stable.
Region 13219 [S07E14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13220 [S13E38] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 13221 [N16E35] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13223 [N14E18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13224 [N21E37] decayed early in the day, then gained small spots as new flux emerged.
New region 13225 [S21E09] emerged on February 11 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8260 [S15W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8264 [S10E42] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8272 [S23E27] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S8276 [N10E48] emerged before noon and gained many small spots before the end of the day. The region has polarity intermixing and could produce C and minor M class flares.
New region S8277 [S02E57] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8278 [S00W01] emerged with a tiny spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||Source||Recorded by||Comment|
|C7.2||02:00||13217||GOES16||simultaneous flare in AR 13213|
|C5.0||05:02||13222||GOES16||simultaneous flare in AR 13214|
|C9.0/1F||05:41||13217||GOES16||simultaneous flare in AR 13214|
|C5.2||12:01||behind northwest limb||S8258||GOES16|
|C3.9||14:36||13222||GOES16||simultaneous flare in AR 13213|
February 10: A large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant
peaked near 09h UT and produced a partial halo CME. Components of this CME
could reach Earth on February 13-15.
February 11: An impressive filament eruption began at approximately 10:50 UT to the east of AR 13216. The main part of the CME produced was fast and not Earth directed, however, slower moving components of the CME developed into a full halo CME. Effects could reach Earth on February 14.
February 12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole could be numbered in the next report, it will likely rotate across the central meridian on February 14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on February 13. A flanking impact from the February 10 CME is possible on February 13 or 14 and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. The February 11 CME could reach Earth on February 14 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions until February 16.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
|Active region||SWPC date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
real location: N15W89
SWPC repositioned spotless plage AR 13208 on February 9 to an emerging region further south, see AR S8258
|3||N30W92||0040||DAO||rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||77||217||116|
|Sunspot number:||197||397||246||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||141||275||174||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||217||218||197|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average ap
|166.3||146.1 (SC24 peak)||110.5||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (solar max)||7.88|
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
|2022.08||114.2||117.1||74.6||(92.4 projected, +5.9)||10.92|
|2022.09||135.1||136.5||96.0||(97.4 projected, +5.0)||12.18|
|2022.10||133.5||132.7||95.4||(100.5 projected, +3.1)||11.16|
|2022.11||123.4||120.7||77.6||(103.4 projected, +2.9)||9.33|
|2022.12||147.9||143.4||113.1||(108.2 projected, +4.8)||10.99|
|2023.01||182.4||176.6||143.6||(114.2 projected, +6.0)||8.7|
|2023.02||171.4 (1)||53.6 (2A) / 125.1 (2B) / 168.8 (2C)||(119.2 projected, +5.0)||(10.9)|
|2023.03||(122.3 projected, +3.1)|
|2023.04||(127.7 projected, +5.4)|
|2023.05||(133.5 projected, +5.8)|
|2023.06||(136.8 projected, +3.3)|
|2023.07||(136.3 projected, -0.5)|
|2023.11||(142.5 projected max SC25)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.