The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 16 due to weakening CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 444 and 540 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 228.1 - increasing 81.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 128.03). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.3). Three hour interval K indices: 42333311 (planetary), 31344211 (Boulder), 32333433 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 380) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 244) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13182 [S15W74] decayed further and
produced the largest flare of the day.
Region 13184 [S13W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13186 [N23W16] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13188 [S23E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13190 [S14E33] has a huge leader spot and major flare
potential. Minor magnetic delta configurations was observed at the southern
edge of the leading penumbra and in small trailing penumbrae.
Region 13191 [N10E25] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13192 [N18E36] was mostly quiet and stable. A major flare is
possible.
Region 13193 [S22W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13194 [S23E24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8177 [N20E18] developed slowly and produced several C flares.
S8178 [N10E39] gained tiny spots and was quiet.
New region S8185 [S13E71] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.7 | 01:45 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 02:37 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 03:50 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 04:42 | S14E48 | 13190 | GOES16 | |
| C5.0 | 05:18 | 13182 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13191 by SWPC | |
| C2.6 | 07:30 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.7/1N | 09:23 | S16W69 | 13182 | GOES16 | |
| C3.1 | 11:44 | S8177 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 11:49 | S8177 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 13:52 | S8177 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 14:31 | S8177 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 14:58 | S8177 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 16:02 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 17:43 | S8177 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:36 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 22:41 | 13182 | GOES16 |
January 15-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 14: A partial halo CME was observed after an M3.6 flare in AR
13182 at 21:00 UT. The CME could reach Earth on January 17 or 18 and cause
unsettled to minor storm conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small and poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1125) was Earth facing on January 16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to minor storm conditions is expected on January 17-18 due to CME effects (from January 14 CME) becoming quiet to unsettled on January 19-20 with a chance of active intervals if a high speed stream from CH1125 arrives.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
5 | 12 | 5 | S17W75 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S16W61 area: 0030 |
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
7 | 26 | 14 | S13W24 | 0210 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
|
| 13187 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
N16W66 | location: N14W61 | ||||||||
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
14 | 35 | 15 | N25W15 | 0440 | EHO | EKO |
 |
 |
location N23W16 area: 0660 |
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
10 | 17 | 10 | S24E09 | 0030 | DRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: S23E08 area: 0050 |
| 13189 | 2023.01.11 2023.01.13 |
N23W73 |
 |
location: N19W70 | |||||||
| S8170 | 2023.01.12 | N19E10 | reversed polarities | ||||||||
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
13 | 29 | 16 | N12E22 | 0360 | DKC | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N10E25 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
13 | 36 | 18 | N19E40 | 0400 | FKI | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N18E36 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
21 | 45 | 28 | S14E34 | 0880 | EHI | EKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S14E33 area: 1270 |
| S8177 | 2023.01.13 | 20 | 11 | N20E18 | 0060 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 14 | 6 | N10E39 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13194 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.15 |
7 | 13 | 5 | S23E23 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S23E24 |
| S8180 | 2023.01.13 | S18W19 | |||||||||
| S8181 | 2023.01.13 | S22E17 |
 |
||||||||
| 13193 | 2023.01.14 2023.01.15 |
6 | 11 | 6 | S22W43 | 0060 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
|
| S8184 | 2023.01.14 | S27W15 | |||||||||
| S8185 | 2023.01.16 | 2 | S13E71 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 96 | 260 | 134 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 186 | 380 | 244 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 152 | 309 | 183 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 205 | 209 | 195 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 186.1 (1) | 70.3 (2A) / 136.2 (2B) / 150.7 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (9.6) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
