The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on January 15 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 384 and 525 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 234.3 - increasing 81.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 127.74). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 26.4). Three hour interval K indices: 54443445 (planetary), 32443434 (Boulder), 55343556 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 438) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 267) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13182 [S16W61] decayed quickly and
produced a few C flares.
Region 13184 [S13W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13186 [N24W02] was mostly unchanged and quiet. There's a small
magnetic delta in a trailing penumbra and a major flare is possible.
Region 13188 [S23E22] was quiet and stable.
Region 13189 [N19W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13190 [S14E47] has a huge leader spot and major flare
potential.
Region 13191 [N10E39] lost some complexity and was mostly quiet after
the major flare early in the day.
Region 13192 [N18E49] gained spots and was quiet. The region has
major flare potential.
New region 13193 [S21W30] emerged on January 14 with SWPC numbering
the region the following day.
New region 13194 [S23E37] emerged on January 13 and was noticed by
SWPC 2 days later as slow development continued.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8177 [N20E31] was quiet and stable.
S8178 [N10E49] was mostly quiet and stable.
S8181 [S22E30] was quiet and stable.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.7 | 00:08 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| M6.0 | 03:42 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.6 | 06:06 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 07:27 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.3 | 08:08 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 08:48 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 10:51 | S8178 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.3 | 12:11 | N12E43 | 13191 | GOES16 | |
| C4.4 | 13:16 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.8/2B | 14:31 | S15E54 | 13190 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13186 |
| C5.0 | 17:12 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 17:44 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 18:33 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 19:34 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 20:13 | 13188 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 21:26 | 13190 | GOES16 |
January 13, 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 14: A partial halo CME was observed after an M3.6 flare in AR
13182 at 21:00 UT. The CME could reach Earth on January 17 or 18 and cause
unsettled to minor storm conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1125) will likely become Earth facing on January 16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 16 due to CME effects. Another CME could reach Earth on January 17-18 and cause quiet to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
14 | 37 | 12 | S17W60 | 0140 | DAI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S16W61 area: 0080 |
| 13185 | 2023.01.06 2023.01.09 |
N19W83 |
 |
location: N20W81 |
|||||||
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
7 | 36 | 16 | S12W11 | 0260 | FHO | EAO |
 |
 |
location: S13W12 |
| 13187 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
N16W52 | location: N14W48 | ||||||||
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
10 | 39 | 20 | N25W03 | 0450 | EKO | EKO |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N24E10 area: 0780 |
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
8 | 29 | 16 | S24E21 | 0030 | DRI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S23E22 area: 0080 |
| 13189 | 2023.01.11 2023.01.13 |
2 | 1 | N23W59 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N19W57 | ||
| S8170 | 2023.01.12 | N19E23 |
 |
reversed polarities | |||||||
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
11 | 27 | 15 | N12E40 | 0170 | DAC | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N10E39 area: 0350 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
13 | 41 | 19 | N19E49 | 0210 | DAC | FAI |
 |
 |
area: 0390 location: N18E49 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
11 | 42 | 21 | S12E45 | 0520 | EKO | EKO |
 |
 |
location: S14E47 area: 1060 |
| S8177 | 2023.01.13 | 4 | 3 | N20E31 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 8 | 4 | N10E49 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13194 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.15 |
7 | 20 | 11 | S22E37 | 0020 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: S23E37 |
| S8180 | 2023.01.13 | S18W06 | |||||||||
| S8181 | 2023.01.13 | 2 | S22E30 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13193 | 2023.01.14 2023.01.15 |
6 | 21 | 9 | S22W31 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0090 location: S21W30 |
| S8184 | 2023.01.14 | S27W02 |
 |
||||||||
| Total spot count: | 87 | 308 | 147 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 177 | 438 | 267 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 141 | 355 | 194 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 195 | 241 | 214 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 183.3 (1) | 64.3 (2A) / 132.9 (2B) / 148.4 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (8.2) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
