Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 16, 2023 at 06:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (January 6, 2023)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (January 1, 2023) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (January 1, 2023) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (January 1, 2023) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (January 1, 2023) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on January 15 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 384 and 525 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 234.3 - increasing 81.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 127.74). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 26.4). Three hour interval K indices: 54443445 (planetary), 32443434 (Boulder), 55343556 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 438) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 267) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13182 [S16W61] decayed quickly and produced a few C flares.
Region 13184 [S13W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13186 [N24W02] was mostly unchanged and quiet. There's a small magnetic delta in a trailing penumbra and a major flare is possible.
Region 13188 [S23E22] was quiet and stable.
Region 13189 [N19W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13190 [S14E47] has a huge leader spot and major flare potential.
Region 13191 [N10E39] lost some complexity and was mostly quiet after the major flare early in the day.
Region 13192 [N18E49] gained spots and was quiet. The region has major flare potential.
New region 13193 [S21W30] emerged on January 14 with SWPC numbering the region the following day.
New region 13194 [S23E37] emerged on January 13 and was noticed by SWPC 2 days later as slow development continued.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8177 [N20E31] was quiet and stable.
S8178 [N10E49] was mostly quiet and stable.
S8181 [S22E30] was quiet and stable.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C6.7 00:08   13190 GOES16  
M6.0 03:42   13191 GOES16  
C7.6 06:06   13190 GOES16  
C6.7 07:27   13182 GOES16  
C6.3 08:08   13182 GOES16  
C5.0 08:48   13191 GOES16  
C6.0 10:51   S8178 GOES16  
C8.3 12:11 N12E43 13191 GOES16  
C4.4 13:16   13192 GOES16  
M4.8/2B 14:31 S15E54 13190 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13186
C5.0 17:12   13182 GOES16  
C5.2 17:44   13182 GOES16  
C4.0 18:33   13191 GOES16  
C4.1 19:34   13182 GOES16  
C3.4 20:13   13188 GOES16  
C4.8 21:26   13190 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 13, 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 14: A partial halo CME was observed after an M3.6 flare in AR 13182 at 21:00 UT. The CME could reach Earth on January 17 or 18 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1125) will likely become Earth facing on January 16.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 16 due to CME effects. Another CME could reach Earth on January 17-18 and cause quiet to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13182 2023.01.04
2023.01.05
14 37 12 S17W60 0140 DAI DRI

location: S16W61

area: 0080

13185 2023.01.06
2023.01.09
      N19W83        

location: N20W81

13184 2023.01.08
2023.01.08
7 36 16 S12W11 0260 FHO EAO

location: S13W12

13187 2023.01.09
2023.01.10
      N16W52           location: N14W48
13186 2023.01.09
2023.01.10
10 39 20 N25W03 0450 EKO EKO beta-delta

location: N24E10

area: 0780

13188 2023.01.10
2023.01.12
8 29 16 S24E21 0030 DRI DRI location: S23E22

area: 0080

13189 2023.01.11
2023.01.13
  2 1 N23W59 0004   BXO location: N19W57
S8170 2023.01.12       N19E23         reversed polarities
13191 2023.01.12
2023.01.13
11 27 15 N12E40 0170 DAC DAI

location: N10E39

area: 0350

13192 2023.01.12
2023.01.13
13 41 19 N19E49 0210 DAC FAI area: 0390

location: N18E49

13190 2023.01.12
2023.01.13
11 42 21 S12E45 0520 EKO EKO location: S14E47

area: 1060

S8177 2023.01.13   4 3 N20E31 0010   BXO  
S8178 2023.01.13   8 4 N10E49 0020   BXO  
13194 2023.01.13
2023.01.15
7 20 11 S22E37 0020 CRO CRI area: 0050

location: S23E37

S8180 2023.01.13       S18W06            
S8181 2023.01.13   2   S22E30 0005   AXX  
13193 2023.01.14
2023.01.15
6 21 9 S22W31 0020 CRO DRI area: 0090

location: S21W30

S8184 2023.01.14       S27W02          
Total spot count: 87 308 147  
Sunspot number: 177 438 267  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 141 355 194  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 195 241 214  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.7 (+4.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.7 (+4.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.0 (+4.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.2 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 80.9 (+3.7) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (86.0 projected, +5.1) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 74.6 (91.4 projected, +5.4) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.0 (96.3 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (99.5 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (102.3 projected, +2.8) 9.33
2022.12 147.9 143.4 113.1 (107.1 projected, +4.8) 11.2
2023.01 183.3 (1)   64.3 (2A) / 132.9 (2B) / 148.4 (2C) (113.1 projected, +6.0) (8.2)
2023.02       (118.2 projected, +5.1)  
2023.03       (121.3 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (126.7 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (132.5 projected, +5.8)  
2023.06       (135.7 projected, +3.2)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.