The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 446 and 548 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 209.5 - decreasing 17.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 132.13). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33232111 (planetary), 33233311 (Boulder), 43322012 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 23 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 451) and in 20 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 302) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13213 [N30W49] has a weak magnetic delta
in the intermediate spot section. Several C and M flares occurred in this
region. There is still a chance of a major flare.
Region 13214 [N12W32] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. An
M class flare is possible.
Region 13215 [N21W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13216 [N25E07] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13217 [S11E35] remained compact with a complex magnetic layout.
Loss of area was observed after the X1 flare. Another major flare is possible.
Region 13218 [N10E18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13219 [S06E27] was quiet and stable.
Region 13220 [S14E50] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13221 [N15E48] was quiet and stable.
Region 13222 [N30W80] developed and produced several flares as it
rotated to the northwest limb.
New region 13223 [N18E31] emerged on February 10 and was numbered the
next day by SWPC.
New region 13224 [N22E50] emerged with several spots.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8238 [S22W37] was quiet and stable.
S8258 [N08W80] developed and has C class flare potential. SWPC has
repositioned old AR 13208 (originally 7 degrees further north and spotless plage) to this region.
S8260 [S14W09] was quiet and stable.
S8264 [S10E53] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S8268 [S21E19] emerged with small spots.
New region S8269 [S23W14] emerged before noon with tiny spots, then
decayed slowly.
New region S8271 [S22W22] emerged before noon with tiny spots.
New region S8272 [S23E41] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S8273 [N27E59] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8274 [N22E67] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8275 [S04E14] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.2 | 02:24 | 13214 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 04:36 | behind southwest limb | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C5.5 | 04:45 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 05:59 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 06:20 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 06:30 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.7 | 06:34 | N10W24 | 13214 | GOES16 | |
| C7.2 | 06:45 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.9/1N | 07:56 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.2 | 08:08 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 09:21 | S10E43 | 13217 | GOES16 | |
| C5.6 | 09:34 | 13224 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13222 | |
| C3.5 | 10:28 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 10:58 | 13217 | GOES16 | attributed to smaller, simultaneous flare in AR 13222 by SWPC | |
| M1.5 | 11:34 | 13222 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 12:09 | 13217 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 12:23 | 13217 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 12:40 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 14:32 | S8258 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.1/2B | 15:48 | S08E39 | 13217 | GOES16 | |
| M1.4 | 17:23 | S8258 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed by SWPC to smaller, simultaneous flare in AR 13222 | |
| C3.7 | 20:12 | 13222 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 20:31 | 13214 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 21:45 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 22:33 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.7 | 22:57 | 13217 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 23:08 | 13213 | GOES16 |
February 9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 10: A large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant
peaked near 09h UT and produced a partial halo CME. Components of this CME
could reach Earth on February 13-15.
February 11: An impressive filament eruption began at approximately
10:50 UT to the east of AR 13216. The main part of the CME produced was fast
and not Earth directed, however, slower moving components of the CME
developed into a full halo CME. Effects could reach Earth on February 14.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on February 12. The February 10 CME could reach Earth on February 13 or 14 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. The February 11 CME could reach Earth on February 14 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13207 | 2023.01.29 2023.01.30 |
S13W89 |
|
||||||||
| 13208 | 2023.02.01 2023.02.01 |
8 | N08W79 | 0070 | DAO |
real location: N15W76 SWPC repositioned spotless plage AR 13208 on February 9 to an emerging region further south, see AR S8258 |
|||||
| 13209 | 2023.02.01 2023.02.03 |
N20W52 |
 |
location: N20W50 | |||||||
| S8238 | 2023.02.03 | 5 | 1 | S22W37 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13213 | 2023.02.04 2023.02.06 |
31 | 46 | 25 | N29W51 | 0460 | FKI | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N30W49 |
| 13214 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
16 | 32 | 17 | N12W33 | 0380 | DKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0570 |
| 13215 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
3 | N22W10 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
|
|||
| 13216 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
2 | 14 | 4 | N24E06 | 0140 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 |
| S8247 | 2023.02.05 | S27W43 | |||||||||
| S8250 | 2023.02.06 | S25W08 |
 |
||||||||
| S8251 | 2023.02.06 | N09W59 | |||||||||
| S8254 | 2023.02.07 | N22W28 | |||||||||
| 13218 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
1 | 6 | 3 | N11E21 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N10E18 area: 0025 |
| 13217 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
14 | 35 | 19 | S09E36 | 0380 | EKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0470 location: S11E35 |
| 13219 | 2023.02.08 2023.02.09 |
4 | 8 | 6 | S07E29 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S06E27 area: 0040 |
| S8258 | 2023.02.08 | 6 | 4 | N08W80 | 0230 | CSO |
 |
 |
see AR 13208 | ||
| S8259 | 2023.02.08 | N18E34 | |||||||||
| S8260 | 2023.02.08 | 11 | 1 | S14W09 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8261 | 2023.02.08 | S09W22 | |||||||||
| 13220 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
2 | 6 | 2 | S14E51 | 0150 | HSX | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0300 location: S14E64 |
| 13221 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
2 | 8 | 4 | N16E48 | 0050 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0110 location: N15E48 |
| S8264 | 2023.02.09 | 3 | 1 | S10E43 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13222 | 2023.02.10 2023.02.10 |
4 | 5 | 3 | N29W79 | 0030 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0120 location: N30W80 |
| 13223 | 2023.02.10 2023.02.11 |
3 | 7 | 1 | N19E31 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 13224 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.11 |
2 | 7 | 4 | N23E50 | 0010 | CRO | DRO |
 |
area: 0020 was AR S8267 |
|
| S8268 | 2023.02.11 | 4 | 2 | S21E19 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8269 | 2023.02.11 | 1 | 1 | S23W14 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8271 | 2023.02.11 | 5 | 2 | S22W22 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8272 | 2023.02.11 | 3 | 1 | S23E41 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8273 | 2023.02.11 | 2 | 1 | N27E59 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8274 | 2023.02.11 | 2 | N22E67 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8275 | 2023.02.11 | 2 | S04E14 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 89 | 221 | 102 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 209 | 451 | 302 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 150 | 291 | 172 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 230 | 248 | 242 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (92.4 projected, +5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.4 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.5 projected, +3.1) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.4 projected, +2.9) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (108.2 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (114.2 projected, +6.0) | 8.7 |
| 2023.02 | 168.8 (1) | 46.6 (2A) / 118.5 (2B) / 170.1 (2C) | (119.2 projected, +5.0) | (11.3) | |
| 2023.03 | (122.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (127.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.8 projected, +3.3) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (136.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
