The geomagnetic field was very quiet on October 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 370 and 484 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 147.9 - increasing 19.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 114.07). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.0). Three hour interval K indices: 00000111 (planetary), 00001221 (Boulder), 00000133 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 240) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 165) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13107 [S24W66] decayed slowly losing all
mature penumbra.
Region 13110 [N17W37] developed polarity intermixing when new flux
emerged to the northeast of the largest spot with negative polarity flux
inside a large area of positive polarity. This cused the region to become
unstable and a major flare occurred at 20:10 UT. The region was the source
of an M8.7 flare at 02:21 UT on October 2.
Region 13111 [N27E19] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet.
Region 13112 [N19E64] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include
these spots in AR S7901. If that interpretation was correct the region would
extend more than 20 degrees longitudinally.
Region 13113 [N16W27] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13114 [S33E24] emerged early on September 30 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day. The region appeared to be in slow decay late
in the day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7897 [N31E00] was quiet and stable.
S7901 [N22E75] has
magnetically a very complex layout with multiple magnetic delta structures.
Although the region was significantly less active on October 1 than on the
previous day, a major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 10:29, C1.9 @
14:26 UT
S7902 [N28E70] was quiet and stable.
New region S7904 [S19E31] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7905 [N30E79] rotated into view with tiny spots.
A filament eruption near AR 13113 peaked near 13:00 UT and was associated with a partial halo CME.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.3 | 01:24 | N21E82 | S7901 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 02:18 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 04:01 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 04:17 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.4 | 04:58 | 13107 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 05:02 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 06:30 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 07:11 | S7901 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13107 by SWPC | |
| C3.8 | 08:31 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 12:06 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 12:39 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 13:00 | S7901 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13113 by SWPC | |
| C2.1 | 15:53 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 16:54 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 17:41 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 18:04 | N30E22 | 13111 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 18:27 | S7901 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13110 by SWPC | |
| C3.6 | 19:02 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.8/1B | 20:10 | N18W36 | 13110 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 22:02 | 13110 | GOES16 |
September 29-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
October 1: A filament eruption near AR 13113 peaked near 13h UT and
was associated with a partial halo CME. This CME could reach
Earth on October 4.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
Recurrent coronal holes (CH1103/CH1104) were Earth facing on September 27 - October 1.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on October 2-4 due to effects from CH1104.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13105 | 2022.09.19 2022.09.19 |
S17W84 |
 |
location: S18W81 |
|||||||
| 13107 | 2022.09.20 2022.09.21 |
6 | 8 | 4 | S25W68 | 0030 | CRI | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S24W66 |
| 13110 | 2022.09.22 2022.09.23 |
5 | 13 | 9 | N17W38 | 0160 | CSO | DSI |
 |
 |
location: N17W37 |
| 13111 | 2022.09.26 2022.09.27 |
3 | 20 | 5 | N28E18 | 0090 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N27E19 |
| S7893 | 2022.09.28 | S15W22 |
 |
||||||||
| S7894 | 2022.09.29 | N12E02 | |||||||||
| 13113 | 2022.09.29 2022.09.30 |
8 | 25 | 16 | N16W29 | 0100 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0180 |
| S7897 | 2022.09.29 | 4 | N31E00 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13114 | 2022.09.30 2022.10.01 |
3 | 12 | 6 | S33E26 | 0030 | CAO | CRI |
 |
 |
|
| 13112 | 2022.09.30 2022.09.30 |
15 | 9 | 5 | N22E69 | 0560 | EKI | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0180 location: N19E64 SWPC includes AR S7901 in this region |
| S7900 | 2022.09.30 | S26W24 |
 |
||||||||
| S7901 | 2022.09.30 | 30 | 16 | N22E75 | 0700 | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta | ||
| S7902 | 2022.09.30 | 1 | 1 | N28E70 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7903 | 2022.09.30 | S12E22 |
 |
||||||||
| S7904 | 2022.10.01 | 4 | 1 | S19E31 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7905 | 2022.10.01 | 4 | 2 | N30E79 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 40 | 130 | 65 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 100 | 240 | 165 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 73 | 166 | 101 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 110 | 132 | 132 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (74.2 projected, +5.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (80.6 projected, +6.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (86.5 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (93.7 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (100.2 projected, +6.5) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (105.2 projected, +5.0) | 12.2 |
| 2022.10 | 147.9 (1) | 3.2 (2A) / 100 (2B) / 110.2 (2C) | (108.3 projected, +3.1) | (2.0) | |
| 2022.11 | (111.2 projected, +2.9) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (115.9 projected, +4.7) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (122.0 projected, +6.1) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (127.0 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (130.0 projected, +3.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
