The geomagnetic field was minor to major storm on September 4 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1097. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 548 and 748 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded active to severe storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 128.3 - increasing 15.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 110.38). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 62 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 62.3). Three hour interval K indices: 56665655 (planetary), 55564534 (Boulder), 76655746 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 205) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 144) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13089 [S22W72] lost some area as it
approached the southwest limb. Fewer magnetic delta structures were observed
as well, however, there is still a chance of a major flare. C1 flares: C1.9
@ 11:16, C1.9 @ 14:55, C1.8 @ 18:06, C1.8 @ 22:52 UT
Region 13092 [S10E27] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13093 [S27E18] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13094 [N20E53] was mostly quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7821 [N18W53] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7822 [N21W21] developed slowly and quietly.
S7831 [N26E18] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7834 [S21E08] was quiet and stable.
New region S7836 [S13W30] emerged with a few spots.
New region S7837 [N24W35] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7838 [N15E40] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 01:32 | 13094 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.4 | 03:02 | S23W61 | 13089 | GOES16 | |
| C5.1 | 04:05 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8/1F | 05:31 | S24W62 | 13089 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 07:17 | 13094 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 07:54 | 13093 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 08:34 | 13093 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 08:56 | 13093 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 10:21 | S24W62 | 13089 | GOES16 | |
| C2.5 | 10:55 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 11:32 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 11:46 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 12:16 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 12:27 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 13:08 | behind southeast limb? | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 13:55 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 14:10 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 15:04 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 16:23 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.2/1N | 16:38 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 18:27 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 19:29 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 20:24 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 20:51 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:48 | 13089 | GOES16 |
September 3-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
September 2: A large filament eruption began at 17:06 UT in SDO/AIA
imagery to the northwest of AR 13093 and eventually covered an area from
east of AR 13093 in the southeast quadrant to center disk. The filament
eruption apparently triggered a C3 flare in AR 13093 at 19:36 UT. A partial
halo CME was observed after the filament eruption and a peripheral CME
impact is possible
on September 5.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1097) was Earth facing on August 31 - September 3.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to major storm conditions are likely on September 5-6, first due to effects from CH1097 then due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is expected on September 7-8.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13090 | 2022.08.23 2022.08.25 |
N16W76 | location: N18W70 | ||||||||
| 13089 | 2022.08.24 | 13 | 31 | 19 | S23W74 | 0520 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S22W72 area: 0800 |
| S7816 | 2022.08.26 | S13W41 | |||||||||
| 13091 | 2022.08.28 2022.09.01 |
N14W60 | |||||||||
| S7821 | 2022.08.28 | 2 | N18W53 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S7822 | 2022.08.28 | 11 | 8 | N21W21 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7823 | 2022.08.29 | N07W22 | |||||||||
| S7824 | 2022.08.29 | S12W42 | |||||||||
| S7825 | 2022.08.30 | S17W31 | |||||||||
| 13092 | 2022.08.31 2022.09.01 |
3 | 18 | 7 | S10E27 | 0090 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
|
| S7827 | 2022.08.31 | N26E04 | |||||||||
| 13093 | 2022.08.31 2022.09.02 |
3 | 13 | 8 | S27E16 | 0030 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: S27E18 |
| 13094 | 2022.09.02 2022.09.02 |
3 | 6 | 3 | N21E53 | 0100 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
|
| S7831 | 2022.09.02 | 2 | N26E18 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7832 | 2022.09.02 | S30E09 | |||||||||
| S7833 | 2022.09.03 | N10W01 |
 |
||||||||
| S7834 | 2022.09.03 | 2 | 1 | S21E08 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7835 | 2022.09.03 | S16W54 |
 |
||||||||
| S7836 | 2022.09.04 | 7 | 5 | S13W30 | 0025 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S7837 | 2022.09.04 | 1 | 1 | N24W35 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7838 | 2022.09.04 | 2 | 2 | N15E40 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 22 | 95 | 54 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 62 | 205 | 144 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 45 | 121 | 80 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 68 | 113 | 115 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (68.7 projected, +3.9) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (73.9 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (80.3 projected, +6.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (86.2 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (93.4 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (100.0 projected, +6.6) | 11.0 |
| 2022.09 | 124.5 (1) | 8.9 (2A) / 67.0 (2B) / 99.9 (2C) | (104.9 projected, +4.9) | (25.6) | |
| 2022.10 | (108.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (110.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (115.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (121.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (126.7 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
