The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on January 31. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 376 and 481 km/sec, averaging 425 km/sec (-124 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 140.5 - decreasing 16.9 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 150.79 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 145.2 (41 days ago, this is 48.1% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 4.6). Three hour interval K indices: 22211011 (planetary), 22111220 (Boulder), 33110122 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 260) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 165) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14349 [S14W83] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.6 @ 00:59 UT
AR 14355 [S16W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14357 [S13W65] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14358 [N14E10] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14359 [N22W09] was quiet and stable.
AR 14360 [S15E12] was quiet and stable.
AR 14362 [S17E46] was quiet and stable.
AR 14363 [S26E46] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 09:32 UT
AR 14365 [N26W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14366 [N14E48] developed very quickly and is
a compact and complex region with a significant magnetic delta in the
central spot section. A major flare is possible. The region produced the
large majority of the flares and was the source of 2 M flares early on
February 1. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 01:10, C1.5 @ 01:37, C1.3 @ 02:24, C1.4 @
02:40, C1.6 @ 03:52. C1.9 @ 03:57, C1.9 @ 07:40, C1.5 @ 09:26 UT
New AR 14367 [N08E74] rotated into view with a few spots. C1 flares:
C1.3 @ 00:09, C1.4 @ 01:33 UT
New AR 14368 [S10E77] rotated into view with a mature spot.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11814 [N12W20] was quiet and stable.
AR S11826 [S23W06] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11829 [S03E83] rotated into view with a
mature spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 01:45 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 02:52 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 02:59 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 03:15 | 14367 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.9 | 04:40 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.2 | 05:05 | behind southwest limb | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14366 | |
| C6.1 | 05:12 | 14367 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 06:17 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 07:11 | GOES18 | |||
| C3.1 | 08:42 | 14363 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 08:46 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.3 | 10:52 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 11:13 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 11:21 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 12:13 | behind southeast limb | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14366 | |
| C3.5 | 12:28 | 14367 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 12:50 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.1 | 13:00 | N13E58 | 14366 | GOES18 | |
| C2.5 | 13:27 | 14366 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14358 | |
| C3.1 | 13:53 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 14:13 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 14:32 | 14367 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 14:52 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.9 | 15:09 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 15:52 | 14367 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5/2F | 16:00 | S15W54 | 14357 | GOES18 | |
| C2.8 | 16:27 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 17:34 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 17:42 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 18:01 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.0 | 18:33 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 20:00 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 20:21 | 14367 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.7 | 20:30 | behind southeast limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:06 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 21:54 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 22:18 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 22:37 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 23:15 | 14366 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 00:05 | 14366 | GOES18 | flare started at 23:56 UT |
January 29-31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1342) could rotate across the central meridian on February 3-4. CH1342 has become much smaller over the last rotation.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on February 1-4.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14349 | 2026.01.18 2026.01.19 |
4 | 2 | S14W86 | 0040 | CSO | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11789 area: 0010 location: S14W83 |
|
| 14355 | 2026.01.21 2026.01.24 |
9 | 1 | S13W49 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11798 location: S16W42 |
||
| 14365 | 2026.01.23 2026.01.30 |
4 | N26W25 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11806 location: N26W24 |
|||
| 14361 | 2026.01.24 2026.01.28 |
N19W70 |
was AR S11809 location: N18W65 |
||||||||
| 14356 | 2026.01.25 2026.01.26 |
S10W76 |
was AR S11810 location: S11W66 |
||||||||
| S11813 | 2026.01.25 | N17W30 | |||||||||
| S11814 | 2026.01.26 | 3 | 1 | N12W20 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 14357 | 2026.01.26 2026.01.27 |
4 | 5 | 2 | S14W60 | 0020 | CAO | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11816 area: 0015 location: S13W65 |
| 14358 | 2026.01.26 2026.01.27 |
1 | 7 | 3 | N14E09 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11817 area: 0020 |
| S11818 | 2026.01.26 | S32W52 | |||||||||
| 14360 | 2026.01.27 2026.01.28 |
1 | 6 | 2 | S16E13 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11819 area: 0020 location: S15E12 |
| 14359 | 2026.01.27 2026.01.28 |
4 | 9 | 4 | N21W09 | 0010 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11820 area: 0020 location: N22W09 strange classification by SWPC |
| S11821 | 2026.01.27 | S04W55 | |||||||||
| 14362 | 2026.01.28 | 1 | 5 | 1 | S18E45 | 0040 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11822 area: 0120 location: S17E46 |
| 14363 | 2026.01.28 2026.01.29 |
2 | 9 | 1 | S26E45 | 0030 | CAO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11823 area: 0020 location: S26E46 strange classification by SWPC, does not match observables at all |
| 14366 | 2026.01.29 2026.01.30 |
7 | 42 | 27 | N13E51 | 0060 | DAI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta-gamma was AR S11825 area: 0650 location: N14E48 very low spot count by SWPC/USAF, area is way off |
| S11826 | 2026.01.29 | 4 | S23W06 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 14367 | 2026.01.31 2026.01.31 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N10E75 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
was AR S11827 area: 0160 location: N08E74 |
|
| 14368 | 2026.01.31 2026.01.31 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S08E76 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
was AR S11828 area: 0210 location: S10E77 |
|
| S11829 | 2026.01.31 | 1 | 1 | S03E83 | 0160 | HSX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 26 | 110 | 45 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 126 | 260 | 165 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 66 | 146 | 81 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 139 | 143 | 132 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.4 (-2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | (119.9 projected, -2.5) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | (117.2 projected, -2.7) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (114.1 projected, -3.1) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (112.4 projected, -1.7) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | (111.1 projected, -1.3) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 149.4 | 144.0 | 112.6 | (107.2 projected, -3.9) | 23.2 |
| 2026.02 | (1) | (2A/2B) / 140.3 (2C) | (103.0 projected, -4.2) | () | |
| 2026.03 | (98.4 projected, -4.6) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (94.5 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (93.3 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2026.06 | (91.1 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2026.07 | (86.7 projected, -4.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
