The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels on February 15 under the influence of effects associated with CH1345. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 520 and 732 km/sec, averaging 635 km/sec (+185 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 117.5 - decreasing 55.9 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 149.46 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 148.9 (41 days ago, this is 50.5% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 25.8). Three hour interval K indices: 55333334 (planetary), 55232433 (Boulder), 55533355 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 164) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 117) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14373 [N09W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14374 [N09W11] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.8 @
21:06 UT
AR 14375 [N16E18] was quiet and stable.
AR 14376 [N12E40] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14377 [N08E53] developed further before noon, then began to decay
slowly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11853 [S12E04] was quiet and stable.
AR S11856 [N19W07] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11862 [N03W17] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11863 [N17E10] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New AR S11864 [N04E35] emerged with a tiny spot.
AR S11854 in the southwest quadrant produced a C1.3 flare at 07:37 UT.
An active region behind the southeast limb produced an M2.4 flare at 04:34 UT on February 16.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
February 14-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
February 13: A poorly defined CME was observed after the M1.0 flare
in AR 14373. The CME could reach Earth on February 16.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1345) will be Earth facing on February 12-17.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on February 16-17 due to effects associated with CH1345, possibly with some contribution on February 16 from the February 13 CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on February 18-20.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14373 | 2026.02.05 2026.02.06 |
3 | 6 | 4 | N09W56 | 0130 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11836 area: 0160 |
| S11838 | 2026.02.07 | S10W43 |
 |
||||||||
| 14374 | 2026.02.08 2026.02.09 |
2 | 15 | 7 | N10W11 | 0200 | HSX | DHO |
 |
 |
was AR S11839 area: 0270 location: N09W11 |
| S11842 | 2026.02.09 | S11W26 | |||||||||
| S11843 | 2026.02.09 | S23W50 | |||||||||
| S11845 | 2026.02.10 | S12W56 | |||||||||
| 14375 | 2026.02.10 2026.02.11 |
1 | 7 | 2 | N16E18 | 0020 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11846 area: 0030 |
| 14376 | 2026.02.12 2026.02.14 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N13E41 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11851 location: N12E40 |
| S11852 | 2026.02.12 | S12W20 | |||||||||
| S11853 | 2026.02.12 | 10 | 1 | S12E04 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11854 | 2026.02.13 | S14W55 |
 |
||||||||
| S11856 | 2026.02.13 | 4 | 2 | N19W07 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11857 | 2026.02.13 | N21E14 | |||||||||
| 14377 | 2026.02.13 2026.02.14 |
8 | 13 | 8 | N08E55 | 0050 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11858 area: 0070 location: N08E53 |
| S11859 | 2026.02.13 | S09E36 | |||||||||
| S11860 | 2026.02.14 | S14E57 |
 |
||||||||
| S11861 | 2026.02.14 | N38E24 |
 |
||||||||
| S11862 | 2026.02.15 | 2 | 1 | N03W17 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11863 | 2026.02.15 | 3 | 1 | N17E10 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11864 | 2026.02.15 | 1 | N04E35 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 15 | 64 | 27 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 65 | 164 | 117 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 31 | 88 | 51 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 72 | 90 | 94 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.4 (-2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | (119.9 projected, -2.5) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | (117.2 projected, -2.7) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (114.1 projected, -3.1) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (112.4 projected, -1.7) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | (111.1 projected, -1.3) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 112.6 | (107.2 projected, -3.9) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 149.9 (1) | 58.4 (2A) / 109.0 (2B) / 149.1 (2C) | (103.0 projected, -4.2) | (11.4) | |
| 2026.03 | (98.4 projected, -4.6) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (94.5 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (93.3 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2026.06 | (91.1 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2026.07 | (86.7 projected, -4.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
