The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on May 16. A disturbance began early on May 17 with active to major storm levels observed. The source of this disturbance is uncertain, but may be related to the May 12/13 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 413 and 470 km/sec, averaging 434 km/sec (-14 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 117.3 - decreasing 40.1 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 days average solar flux at 1 AU was 191.90 (183 days ago). SC25 peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024 (subtracting a baseline solar flux level of 65, this is +62.6% compared to the SC24 peak and -1.7% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.3). Three hour interval K indices: 22323224 (planetary), 23433323 (Boulder), 53223344 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 214) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 110) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14084 [S15W39] reemerged with a tiny spot.
AR 14087 [N14E23] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14088 [N09W73] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR 14089 [N18E56] rotated into view on May 15 and was numbered by
SWPC the next day as slow development continued.
New AR 14090 [S12E63] rotated into view on May 15 and received its
NOAA number the following day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11065 [N18E16] produced fewer and less intense flares than during
the previous days. The magnetic delta configuration is still present and an
M flare is possible. was less active than during the previous day. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 03:15, C1.0 @ 05:39, C1.4 @ 10:32, C1.1 @ 22:41 UT
S11066 [N04W44] reemerged with tiny spots.
S11067 [S01E03] was quiet and stable.
S11068 [N31E09] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S11075 [S12E51] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S11076 [N10W16] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S11077 [S18E06] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S11078 [S03E29] was observed with a tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.5 | 00:52 | N17E40 | S11065 | GOES19 | |
| C2.3 | 04:03 | 14089 | GOES19 |
May 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
May 12/13: A large filament eruption across the central meridian in the
northern hemisphere was observed late on May 12. The associated CME was
directed mostly northwards, however, there is a possibility that components
of the CME could be Earth directed. In that case some CME effects will be
possible on May 16-17.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1293) rotated across the central meridian on May 11-12. A recurrent southern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1294) will become Earth facing on May 15-20.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on May 17-19 due to effects from CH1294.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14084 | 2025.05.07 2025.05.08 |
1 | S20W49 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
was AR S11050 location: S15W39 |
||||
| 14088 | 2025.05.09 2025.05.14 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N09W74 | 0010 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11054 location: N09W73 |
| 14085 | 2025.05.10 2025.05.10 |
N03W60 |
AR S11056 location: N03W55 |
||||||||
| S11060 | 2025.05.10 | S17W49 |
 |
||||||||
| 14087 | 2025.05.12 2025.05.12 |
10 | 16 | 6 | N17E24 | 0230 | DSO | CHO |
 |
 |
was AR S11063 location: N14E23 area: 0350 SWPC includes AR S11065 in this AR |
| S11065 | 2025.05.12 | 19 | 8 | N18E29 | 0110 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta | ||
| S11066 | 2025.05.13 | 2 | 1 | N04W44 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11067 | 2025.05.13 | 8 | S01E03 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S11068 | 2025.05.14 | 5 | 2 | N31E09 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11069 | 2025.05.14 | S17E09 | |||||||||
| S11070 | 2025.05.14 | N08E31 | |||||||||
| S11071 | 2025.05.14 | N15W43 | |||||||||
| 14089 | 2025.05.15 2025.05.16 |
3 | 11 | 6 | N18E55 | 0030 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11072 area: 0060 location: N18E56 |
| 14090 | 2025.05.15 2025.05.16 |
3 | 6 | 3 | S12E63 | 0060 | CAO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11073 area: 0110 |
| S11074 | 2025.05.15 | S10E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S11075 | 2025.05.16 | 7 | 3 | S12E51 | 0020 | CRI |
 |
||||
| S11076 | 2025.05.16 | 4 | N10W16 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11077 | 2025.05.16 | 2 | S18E06 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11078 | 2025.05.16 | 1 | S03E29 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 17 | 84 | 30 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 57 | 214 | 110 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 33 | 116 | 62 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 63 | 118 | 88 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 107.1 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 113.5 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.8 (+1.4) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | (159.0 projected, -1.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | (155.2 projected, -3.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (149.7 projected, -5.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.7 | (141.6 projected, -7.1) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (135.1 projected, -6.5) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (130.5 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 138.6 (1) | 36.4 (2A) / 70.6 (2B) / 120.1 (2C) | (125.2 projected, -5.3) | (17.0) | |
| 2025.06 | (120.3 projected, -4.9) | ||||
| 2025.07 | (116.1 projected, -4.2) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (111.4 projected, -4.7) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (107.1 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (103.2 projected, -3.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). The
decline has become more obvious during the first half of May 2025 with solar
flux on May 12 at its lowest level since April 4, 2024. The solar max phase
of solar cycle 25 was considerably shorter than that of the most recent
solar cycles.
All 365 days smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (STAR 1K 365d peak: 236.1, STAR 2K
365d peak: 364.3, NOAA SN 365d peak: 156.0, ISN 365d peak: 163.6). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
