The geomagnetic field was at minor to severe storm levels on June 13. The most likely source of the disturbance is a CIR associated with CH1301. Solar wind density at ACE/DSCOVR has been on an increasing trend since early on June 13, this is not what is expected if the source had been a CME. The phi angle has been in a positive sector after 22:15 on June 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 375 and 491 km/sec, averaging 424 km/sec (-8 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded active to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 143.0 - increasing 25.8 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 188.06 (183 days ago). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 65 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 64.8). Three hour interval K indices: 76556566 (planetary), 55565445 (Boulder), 67754546 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 249) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 163) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14105 [S15W60] decayed further and produced
the only M flare of the day. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:55, C1.7 @ 18:40, C1.6 @
20:12 UT
AR 14109 [S17W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14110 [N06W43] developed further and has
minor M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 11:24, C1.4 @ 16:01 UT
AR 14111 [N14E14] was quiet and stable.
AR 14112 [S08W05] was quiet and stable.
AR 14113 [N10E47] was quiet and stable.
AR 14114 [N18E39] developed further and began to produce C flares. A
minor M class flare is possible. The longitudinal separation between the
trailing spots of this region and the leader spot of AR 14115 decreased. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 02:36, C1.0 @ 04:22, C1.5 @ 08:58, C1.8 @ 16:49, C1.7 @
19:32, C1.5 @ 22:30, C1.6 @ 23:08 UT
AR 14115 [N20E50] displayed signs of decay and was mostly quiet. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 12:57 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11145 [S15W79] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet.
S11157 [S11E39] developed further and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.3 @ 15:57 UT
New region S11159 [S02E46] was observed with a tiny spot in an
old plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.7 | 01:19 | NE limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 05:48 | N02W40 | 14110 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 06:45 | N04W38 | 14110 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 06:50 | 14110 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 14:00 | S17W55 | 14105 | GOES18 | |
| C2.9 | 17:11 | N18E41 | 14114 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 18:50 | 14110 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 18:54 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 21:00 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.2/1F | 21:10 | 14105 | GOES18 |
June 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large recurrent positive polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1301) will be Earth facing on June 11-19.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on June 14 and quiet to minor storm levels on June 15-21 due to effects associated with CH1301.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14105 | 2025.06.02 2025.06.03 |
13 | 23 | 9 | S15W59 | 0270 | EKI | EAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11119 area: 0290 location: S15W60 |
| 14107 | 2025.06.05 2025.06.06 |
4 | S15W80 | 0170 | DAO |
was AR S11129 location: S19W82 spotless SWPC location on June 9: S18W31. On June 10 SWPC moved this region to the spots of AR S11145 |
|||||
| 14109 | 2025.06.05 2025.06.07 |
5 | S17W46 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11131 location: S17W41 |
|||
| S11138 | 2025.06.07 | S03W42 | |||||||||
| 14111 | 2025.06.08 2025.06.09 |
2 | 10 | 4 | N14E13 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11139 area: 0160 loction: N14E14 |
| 14110 | 2025.06.08 2025.06.09 |
13 | 32 | 19 | N05W44 | 0080 | DAI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11140 area: 0160 |
| 14112 | 2025.06.08 | 4 | 11 | 4 | S09W05 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11141 area: 0030 location: S08W05 |
| S11142 | 2025.06.08 | S24W57 | |||||||||
| S11143 | 2025.06.08 | S22W35 | |||||||||
| S11145 | 2025.06.09 | 4 | 3 | S15W79 | 0200 | DAC |
 |
 |
this became AR 14107 to SWPC on 2025.06.10 |
||
| S11146 | 2025.06.09 | N03W53 | |||||||||
| S11148 | 2025.06.10 | N20W23 |
 |
||||||||
| 14113 | 2025.06.10 2025.06.11 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N10E32 | 0030 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11149 location: N10E33 area: 0060 |
| 14114 | 2025.06.10 2025.06.11 |
14 | 29 | 20 | N18E39 | 0080 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11150 area: 0290 |
| 14115 | 2025.06.11 2025.06.12 |
3 | 9 | 4 | N21E53 | 0150 | DSO | ESO |
 |
 |
was AR S11151 location: N20E50 area: 0240 |
| S11152 | 2025.06.11 | N15W13 | |||||||||
| S11153 | 2025.06.11 | S34W21 | |||||||||
| S11154 | 2025.06.11 | S32W39 | |||||||||
| S11155 | 2025.06.11 | N04W08 | |||||||||
| S11157 | 2025.06.12 | 11 | 9 | S11E39 | 0070 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S11158 | 2025.06.12 | S07E17 |
 |
||||||||
| S11159 | 2025.06.13 | 1 | S02E46 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 54 | 139 | 73 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 134 | 249 | 163 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 94 | 180 | 114 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 147 | 137 | 130 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.8 (+1.4) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.0 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | (150.7 projected, -6.3) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (144.2 projected, -6.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.6 | (135.6 projected, -8.6) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (129.2 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (124.6 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (119.3 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 132.3 (1) | 43.9 (2A) / 101.3 (2B) / 122.3 (2C) | (114.4 projected, -4.9) | (33.2) | |
| 2025.07 | (110.2 projected, -4.2) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (105.5 projected, -4.7) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (101.2 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (97.3 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (95.0 projected, -2.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). The
decline has become more obvious during the first half of May 2025 with solar
flux on May 12 at its lowest level since April 4, 2024. The solar max phase
of solar cycle 25 was considerably shorter than that of the most recent
solar cycles.
All 365 days smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (STAR 1K 365d peak: 236.1, STAR 2K
365d peak: 364.3, NOAA SN 365d peak: 156.0, ISN 365d peak: 163.6). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
