The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on July 30. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 340 and 599 km/sec, averaging 435 km/sec (+58 km/sec compared to the previous day). A CIR associated with CH1308 was in progress from the start of the day until 09:30 when the high speed stream arrived. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 149.0 - increasing 23.9 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 180.49 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 136.8 (41 days ago, this is 42.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 21123321 (planetary), 22233321 (Boulder), 33224432 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 313) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 200) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14149 [N16W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14150 [S14W80] was quiet and stable.
AR 14153 [S29W45] decayed slowly with the leading penumbra
fragmenting into smaller penumbrae.
AR 14154 [S13W35] was quiet and stable.
AR 14155 [S08W23] produced many C flares and decayed slowly losing
area and spots. C1.7 @ 03:26, C1.6 @ 05:24, C1.3 @ 09:48, C1.2 @ 15:35 UT
AR 14157 [S20W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14160 [S07W04] was quiet and stable.
AR 14161 [S12E37] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14164 [S19E21] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR 14165 [N12E71] rotated into view on July
29 and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 07:42, C1.3 @ 17:36 UT
New AR 14166 [N23W24] emerged on July 29 and was numbered by SWPC the
next day as the region developed further. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 21:19 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11276 [N09W41] reemerged with tiny spots.
S11299 [S24W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR S11302 [S18E37] emerged with a few spots to the south of AR
14161.
New AR S11303 [N10E05] emerged with several spots.
New AR S11304 [N26E11] was observed with a tiny spot in an old
plage area.
New AR S11305 [N09W11] emerged with a tiny spot.
AR S11295 behind the northwest limb produced a few C1
flares: C1.5 @ 00:15, C1.5 @ 08:28 UT
AR S11298 behind the northwest limb was the source of a C1 flares: C1.4 @
00:10, C1.2 @ 13:13 UT
A C1.6 flare at 07:04 UT could not be attributed to an AR due to missing
imagery.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 00:55 | 14155 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR S11295 | |
| C2.9 | 02:16 | 14157 | GOES18 | small CME, likely not Earth directed | |
| C2.7 | 02:30 | S11298 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 02:33 | 14155 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 02:50 | S11295 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 03:06 | behind northwest limb | S11295 | GOES18 | uncertain |
| C2.7 | 03:30 | 14155 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 06:05 | 14155 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 06:16 | S10W10 | 14155 | GOES18 | |
| C3.4 | 10:25 | S09W17 | 14155 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 11:29 | S10W14 | 14155 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 19:43 | 14161 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 19:57 | behind northwest limb | S11298 | GOES18 |
July 28-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1308) rotated across the central meridian on July 26-27. A poorly defined recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1309) will likely become Earth facing on August 1.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on July 31 - August 1. Mostly quiet levels are likely on August 2-3. A few unsettled intervals are possible on August 4-5 due to effects from CH1309.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14150 | 2025.07.18 2025.07.19 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S15W83 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11267 location: S14W80 area: 0090 |
| 14149 | 2025.07.18 2025.07.19 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N16W81 | 0070 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11268 location: N16W80 area: 0130 |
| 14152 | 2025.07.20 2025.07.21 |
N09W66 |
 |
was AR S11275 location: N10W58 |
|||||||
| S11276 | 2025.07.21 | 3 | N09W41 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11277 | 2025.07.21 | S02W45 | |||||||||
| 14153 | 2025.07.22 2025.07.22 |
7 | 17 | 9 | S29W47 | 0120 | EAO | EAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11278 area: 0150 location: S29W45 |
| 14154 | 2025.07.22 2025.07.23 |
3 | 8 | 4 | S15W36 | 0040 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11279 area: 0100 location: S13W35 |
| 14157 | 2025.07.22 2025.07.24 |
1 | 4 | 2 | S21W28 | 0040 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S11280 area: 0070 location: S20W25 |
| 14155 | 2025.07.23 2025.07.24 |
16 | 33 | 19 | S09W24 | 0030 | CRI | ERI |
 |
 |
was AR S11282 location: S08W23 area: 0090 |
| 14156 | 2025.07.23 | N12W24 |
 |
was AR S11283 location: N12W16 |
|||||||
| 14159 | 2025.07.24 2025.07.26 |
S08W67 |
was AR S11285 location: S06W61 |
||||||||
| 14160 | 2025.07.24 2025.07.26 |
7 | 1 | S08W09 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11286 location: S07W04 |
||
| S11288 | 2025.07.25 | N20W56 | |||||||||
| 14164 | 2025.07.26 2025.07.29 |
5 | S21E24 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11289 location: S19E21 |
|||
| 14161 | 2025.07.27 2025.07.27 |
6 | 21 | 11 | S12E39 | 0110 | ESO | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11291 area: 0190 location: S12E37 |
| 14163 | 2025.07.27 2025.07.28 |
N24W37 |
was AR S11292 location: N24W34 |
||||||||
| 14162 | 2025.07.27 2025.07.28 |
N17W41 |
 |
was AR S11293 location: N17W35 |
|||||||
| S11294 | 2025.07.27 | N21W19 | |||||||||
| S11297 | 2025.07.28 | N02W06 |
 |
||||||||
| S11299 | 2025.07.29 | 3 | 1 | S24W28 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 14166 | 2025.07.29 2025.07.30 |
4 | 15 | 10 | N24W26 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11300 area: 0070 |
| 14165 | 2025.07.29 2025.07.30 |
2 | 6 | 2 | N12E72 | 0080 | CAO | DHO |
 |
 |
was AR S13101 area: 0270 |
| S11302 | 2025.07.30 | 5 | 3 | S18E38 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11303 | 2025.07.30 | 12 | 6 | N10E05 | 0040 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S11304 | 2025.07.30 | 1 | N26E11 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11305 | 2025.07.30 | 1 | N09W11 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 41 | 143 | 70 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 131 | 313 | 200 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 79 | 192 | 119 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 144 | 172 | 160 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (146.1 projected, -5.2) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | (138.3 projected, -7.8) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (131.9 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (127.3 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (122.0 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (117.1 projected, -4.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.6 (1) | 116.4 (2A) / 120.3 (2B) / 144.9 (2C) ISN average: 132.4. At this level the SSN for January 2025 will become 146.6 |
(112.9 projected, -4.2) | (12.3) | |
| 2025.08 | (108.1 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (103.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (99.9 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (97.6 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (96.0 projected, -1.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
