The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels on July 7, under the influence of effects associated with the eastern half of CH1304. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 408 and 638 km/sec, averaging 539 km/sec (+122 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 118.1 - decreasing 11.5 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 184.46 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 139.7 (41 days ago, this is 44.7% of the SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 23 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 22.6). Three hour interval K indices: 54333333 (planetary), 65223433 (Boulder), 65334444 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 201) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 144) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14125 [N22W57] was quiet and stable.
AR 14127 [S20W73] developed slowly and produced several low level C
flares. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 04:26, C1.0 @ 05:42, C1.0 @ 07:22, C1.4 @ 11:09,
C1.6 @ 11:19, C1.0 @ 13:01, C1.8 @ 16:34 (simultaneous flare in AR behind
the NE limb) UT
AR 14129 [N03W56] decayed quickly and quietly.
AR 14130 [S09W23] developed early in the day and a magnetic delta
configuration formed. However, decay was observed after noon and the delta
disappeared.
AR 14132 [S16W19] was quiet and stable.
AR 14134 [S22W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR 14135 [S08E69] rotated into view on July 6 and was numbered by
SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11213 [N09W18] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:54
UT
S11218 [N04W15] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11228 [S06W60] emerged with a few spots.
New AR S11229 [S10E30] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New AR S11230 [S17E07] emerged with tiny spots.
An active region at the northeast limb is rotating into view early on July 8. The region produced an M2.4 flare at 04:16 UT on July 8 and numerous C flares on July 7. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 14:23, C1.2 @ 17:42, C1.0 @ 18:51, C1.2 @ 19:06, C1.5 @ 20:58, C1.2 @ 22:16 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.9 | 19:20 | behind NE limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 19:34 | behind NE limb | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 21:10 | behind NE limb | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 21:21 | behind NE limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 21:35 | behind NE limb | GOES18 |
July 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1304) was in an Earth facing position on June 29 - July 4. CH1304 decayed due to the development of AR 14127 and split into a western and an eastern part on July 3. A small trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1305) rotated across the central meridian on July 5. A recurrent trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1306) will be Earth facing on July 8-12.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on July 8-9 due to effects associated with CH1304/CH1305. Quiet levels are possible on July 10. July 11-15 could see unsettled to minor storm levels due to effects associated with CH1306.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14125 | 2025.06.26 2025.06.27 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N22W59 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11199 area: 0060 location: N22W57 |
| 14128 | 2025.06.27 2025.06.29 |
4 | S05W71 | 0020 | BXO |
was AR S11202 there are no spots in the location given by SWPC, they are likely seeing the spots of AR S11228 |
|||||
| 14127 | 2025.06.27 2025.06.29 |
5 | 5 | 3 | S20W72 | 0080 | DAI | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11203 location: S20W73 area: 0240 |
| 14129 | 2025.06.28 2025.06.30 |
3 | 4 | 2 | N02W57 | 0030 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11206 area: 0015 location: N03W56 |
| S11207 | 2025.06.29 | S09W55 | |||||||||
| 14132 | 2025.06.29 2025.07.01 |
15 | 5 | S17W21 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11209 location: S16W19 |
||
| S11210 | 2025.06.29 | N25W53 | |||||||||
| 14130 | 2025.06.30 2025.06.30 |
3 | 8 | 4 | S10W25 | 0040 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11211 location: S09W23 |
| S11213 | 2025.06.30 | 3 | 1 | N09W18 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11215 | 2025.07.01 | S19W51 | |||||||||
| S11218 | 2025.07.03 | 12 | 5 | N04W15 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11219 | 2025.07.03 | S05E02 | |||||||||
| S11220 | 2025.07.03 | N33W35 | |||||||||
| S11221 | 2025.07.03 | S15W02 | |||||||||
| S11222 | 2025.07.04 | S06W50 | |||||||||
| 14134 | 2025.07.05 2025.07.06 |
4 | 11 | 6 | S23W28 | 0040 | DRO | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11224 area: 0050 location: S22W29 |
| S11225 | 2025.07.05 | N23W18 |
 |
||||||||
| 14135 | 2025.07.06 2025.07.07 |
6 | 5 | 3 | S09E69 | 0050 | DAI | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11226 location: S08E69 area: 0150 |
| S11227 | 2025.07.06 | S26E01 |
 |
||||||||
| S11228 | 2025.07.07 | 5 | 2 | S06W60 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S11229 | 2025.07.07 | 3 | S10E30 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11230 | 2025.07.07 | 8 | 2 | S17E07 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 26 | 81 | 34 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 96 | 201 | 144 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 49 | 108 | 61 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 106 | 111 | 115 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.8 (+1.4) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.0 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (146.0 projected, -5.2) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.6 | (138.2 projected, -7.8) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (131.8 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (127.2 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (121.9 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (117.0 projected, -4.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 121.9 (1) | 24.5 (2A) / 108.3 (2B) / 132.9 (2C) | (112.8 projected, -4.2) | (14.4) | |
| 2025.08 | (108.1 projected, -4.7) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (103.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (99.9 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (97.6 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (96.0 projected, -1.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.6). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
