The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on August 31, weakly under the influence of effects associated with CH1315. Solar wind speed at ACE ranged between 380 and 498 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux decreased slowly until approximately 19h UT and then increased slowly reaching 1.8 pfu at the end of the UT day. The M2.7 LDE in AR 14199 on August 30 appears to be the most likely source of the increased flux levels.
Solar flux density measured at 17h UT on 2.8 GHz was 217.0 - increasing 74.3 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 172.29 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 147.1 (41 days ago, this is 49.3% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 6.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22132221 (planetary), 22122322 (Boulder), 10121212 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 366) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 256) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14191 [N10W68] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet.
AR 14195 [S13W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14196 [S12W23] was quiet and stable.
AR 14197 [S19W25] decayed slowly and was less active than during the
previous days.
AR 14199 [N03W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14200 [S08W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14201 [S21W10] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14202 [S15W03] was quiet and stable.
AR 14205 [N17E40] was quiet and stable.
AR 14206 [N09E44] was quiet and stable.
AR 14207 [N29E60] was mostly quiet and stable. An M flare is possible.
New AR 14208 [N18W67] emerged on August 30 and was numbered by SWPC
the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11383 [N17W29] was quiet and stable.
S11392 [N25W56] reemerged with tiny spots.
S11395 [N19W15] reemerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11400 [N13E11] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.8 | 00:48 | 14207 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.6 | 01:33 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 02:03 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 03:58 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 06:14 | 14207 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 07:53 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 09:32 | 14191 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 10:16 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 10:50 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 13:39 | 14207 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 13:58 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 15:32 | 14191 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 17:08 | 14191 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.8 | 18:26 | 14202 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C4.5 | 18:52 | 14208 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C2.2 | 21:24 | 14207 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C2.6 | 22:00 | 14197 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C3.7 | 22:53 | 14197 | GOES18 |
August 29, 31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
August 30: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed in association
with the M2.7 LDE in AR 14199 peaking at 20:01 UT. The CME could reach Earth
between late on September 1 and noon on September 2.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent positive polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1315) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on September 2-4.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on September 1. Late in the day or on September 2 the August 30 CME is expected to arrive and cause unsettled to major storm conditions on September 2-3. Quiet to minor storm levels are possible on September 5-7 due to effects associated with CH1315.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14191 | 2025.08.20 2025.08.20 |
7 | 5 | 3 | N11W68 | 0320 | CHO | CKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11363 area: 0470 |
| 14194 | 2025.08.22 2025.08.2? |
N03W89 |
was AR S11373 location: N01W80 |
||||||||
| 14195 | 2025.08.22 2025.08.2? |
2 | S18W43 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11374 location: S13W39 |
|||
| 14197 | 2025.08.23 2025.08.24 |
50 | 69 | 46 | S18W24 | 0680 | EKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11375 area: 1130 location: S19W25 |
| 14196 | 2025.08.23 2025.08.24 |
10 | 3 | S11W28 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR 11376 location: S12W23 |
||
| 14198 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.25 |
N10W50 |
 |
was AR S11379 location: N09W47 |
|||||||
| 14200 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.26 |
6 | 7 | 5 | S08W68 | 0060 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11380 area: 0080 location: S08W67 |
| 14199 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.25 |
6 | 24 | 13 | N04W09 | 0180 | CAI | CKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11381 location: N03W08 area: 0450 |
| 14201 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.26 |
4 | 23 | 12 | S21W10 | 0090 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11382 area: 0120 |
| S11383 | 2025.08.24 | 4 | 1 | N17W29 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14202 | 2025.08.25 2025.08.26 |
3 | 20 | 12 | S15W05 | 0090 | HAX | DAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11385 area: 0200 location: S15W03 |
| 14204 | 2025.08.27 | N03W02 | trailing part of AR 14199 | ||||||||
| 14205 | 2025.08.28 | 1 | 4 | 3 | N17E40 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11389 area: 0090 |
| 14206 | 2025.08.28 2025.08.29 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N09E44 | 0080 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11390 area: 0150 |
| S11391 | 2025.08.28 | N21W05 | |||||||||
| S11392 | 2025.08.29 | 3 | N25W56 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| 14207 | 2025.08.29 2025.08.30 |
6 | 20 | 10 | N30E58 | 0160 | EAO | EKI |
 |
 |
was AR S11394 location: N29E60 area: 0490 |
| S11395 | 2025.08.29 | 2 | N19W15 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11396 | 2025.08.29 | N16W25 | |||||||||
| S11397 | 2025.08.29 | N09W29 |
 |
||||||||
| S11398 | 2025.08.30 | S08E21 |
 |
||||||||
| 14208 | 2025.08.30 2025.08.31 |
4 | 7 | 4 | N18W68 | 0020 | DRO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11399 area: 0040 location: N18W67 |
| S11400 | 2025.08.31 | 5 | 2 | N13E11 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 88 | 206 | 116 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 188 | 366 | 256 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 146 | 274 | 184 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 207 | 201 | 205 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.9 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (135.6 projected, -4.3) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (132.5 projected, -3.1) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (127.6 projected, -4.9) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (122.8 projected, -4.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (118.9 projected, -3.9) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.6 | (114.1 projected, -4.8) | 9.8 |
| 2025.09 | (1) | (2A/2B) / 152.6 (2C) | (109.7 projected, -4.4) | () | |
| 2025.10 | (105.8 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (103.6 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (101.9 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (97.8 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (93.7 projected, -4.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
