The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on August 29. Solar wind speed at ACE ranged between 358 and 432 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux decreased slowly and was at 2.1 pfu at the end of the UT day.
Solar flux density measured at 17h UT on 2.8 GHz was 221.7 - increasing 75.4 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 172.32 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 145.1 (41 days ago, this is 48.1% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 5.3). Three hour interval K indices: 22111122 (planetary), 22114312 (Boulder), 21011253 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 412) and in 17 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 310) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14191 [N10W41] decayed further and was quiet.
AR 14194 [N01W54] was quiet and stable.
AR 14195 [S18W11] was quiet and stable.
AR 14196 [S11W01] was quiet and stable.
AR 14197 [S18W00] gained spots and area. The magnetic delta
configuration in the leading spot section disappeared and a new one formed
in the the developing intermediate spot section. A major flare is possible.
AR 14198 [N10W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14199 [N03E18] gained tiny spots and was mostly quiet.
AR 14200 [S08W40] matured slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14201 [S21E17] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14202 [S15E22] was quiet and stable.
New
AR 14205 [N17E67] rotated into view on August 28 and was numbered the
next day by SWPC.
New AR 14206 [N09E70] rotated into view on August 28 and received its
NOAA number the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New AR S11392 [N25W30] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11394 [N30E82] rotated into view with large spots.
New AR S11395 [N14E23] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New AR S11396 [N16E01] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11397 [N00W15] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.5 | 00:28 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.9 | 00:44 | 14203 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.0 | 00:49 | 14200 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.3 | 01:43 | 14201 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.3 | 02:04 | 14201 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 03:59 | 14203 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.0 | 04:16 | 14203 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14200 | |
| C3.1 | 05:07 | 14200 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 05:29 | 14206 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 06:19 | 14203 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 08:54 | 14203 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 09:09 | 14203 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 12:29 | 14199 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.9 | 12:44 | 14197 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.0 | 17:10 | S19E05 | 14197 | GOES18 |
August 27-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1314) rotated across the central meridian on August 28 as it closed. A recurrent positive polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1315) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on September 1-2.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on August 30. August 31 - September 1 could see quiet to unsettled levels due to weak effects associated with CH1314. CH1314 closed as it was rotating across the central meridian and it is uncertain if any effects will be observed.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14188 | 2025.08.17 2025.08.18 |
S09W78 |
 |
was AR S11359 | |||||||
| 14190 | 2025.08.19 2025.08.20 |
N19W70 | was AR S11362 | ||||||||
| 14191 | 2025.08.20 2025.08.20 |
6 | 17 | 8 | N11W40 | 0370 | CHO | CHO |
 |
 |
was AR S11363 area: 0480 |
| 14193 | 2025.08.20 2025.08.2? |
S27W86 | was AR S11368 | ||||||||
| 14194 | 2025.08.22 2025.08.2? |
2 | 1 | N03W59 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11373 locatoin: N01W54 |
||
| 14195 | 2025.08.22 2025.08.2? |
11 | 2 | S18W15 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11374 location: S18W11 |
||
| 14197 | 2025.08.23 2025.08.24 |
50 | 92 | 65 | S18E03 | 0740 | EKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11375 area: 1550 location: S8W00 |
| 14196 | 2025.08.23 2025.08.24 |
1 | 4 | 2 | S11W02 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR 11376 location: S11W01 |
| 14198 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.25 |
2 | 5 | 3 | N10W21 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11379 |
| 14200 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.26 |
8 | 27 | 9 | S09W42 | 0070 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11380 area: 0120 |
| 14199 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.25 |
8 | 34 | 19 | N04E18 | 0140 | CAI | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11381 location: N03E18 |
| 14201 | 2025.08.24 2025.08.26 |
5 | 28 | 12 | S21E17 | 0100 | DSI | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11382 area: 0160 |
| S11383 | 2025.08.24 | N18W04 |
 |
||||||||
| S11384 | 2025.08.24 | S19W45 | |||||||||
| 14202 | 2025.08.25 2025.08.26 |
2 | 12 | 6 | S16E22 | 0130 | HAX | CKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11385 area: 0270 location: S15E22 |
| S11387 | 2025.08.26 | S26W45 |
 |
||||||||
| 14204 | 2025.08.27 | 1 | N03E27 | 0010 | AXX | trailing spot of AR 14199 | |||||
| 14205 | 2025.08.28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | N18E67 | 0040 | HAX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11389 area: 0080 location: N17E67 |
| 14206 | 2025.08.28 2025.08.29 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N09E70 | 0050 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11390 area: 0140 |
| S11391 | 2025.08.28 | N21E21 |
 |
||||||||
| S11392 | 2025.08.29 | 4 | 3 | N25W30 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11394 | 2025.08.29 | 2 | 2 | N30E82 | 0290 | HKX |
 |
||||
| S11395 | 2025.08.29 | 9 | 4 | N14E23 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11396 | 2025.08.29 | 2 | 1 | N16E01 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11397 | 2025.08.29 | 1 | 1 | N00W15 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 85 | 252 | 140 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 195 | 422 | 310 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 135 | 320 | 208 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 215 | 232 | 248 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | (139.4 projected, -6.9) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (133.4 projected, -6.0) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (129.3 projected, -4.1) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (124.4 projected, -4.9) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (119.6 projected, -4.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (115.6 projected, -4.0) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 150.5 (1) | 121.7 (2A) / 130.1 (2B) / 149.4 (2C) ISN average: 136.1. At this level the SSN for February 2025 will become 140.0 |
(110.9 projected, -4.7) | (10.1) | |
| 2025.09 | (106.5 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (102.6 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (100.3 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (98.7 projected, -1.6) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (94.6 projected, -4.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
