The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels on September 17 due to effects from the September 14 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 483 and 639 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded active to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 4.7 pfu at the end of the day having peaked at 33 pfu at 10:50 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 165.4 - decreasing 73.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 176.05. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 176.05 on March 19, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 70 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 69.8). Three hour interval K indices: 77566434 (planetary), 76545433 (Boulder), 66555466 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 277) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 164) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13824 [S05W57] was mostly quiet and stable.
C1.5 @ 23:54 UT
AR 13825 [S17E07] decayed in the trailing spot section and developed
further in the leading spot section. The region could produce M flares. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 09:51, C1.6 @ 18:05, C1.4 @ 22:08 UT
AR 13826 [S29W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13827 [S26E48] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 13828 [S12E60] gained a few tiny spots and was mostly quiet. C1
flares: C1.5 @ 11:41, C1.6 @ 16:48 UT
New AR 13829 [N12W46] emerged on September 13 and was numbered by
SWPC 4 days later.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10115 [S13W05] was quiet and stable.
S10117 [N18W21] was quiet and stable.
S10123 [S06E23] was quiet and stable.
S10124 [N16W00] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10126 [N16W55] decayed in the trialing spot section while the leader
spot gained area.
New region S10134 [N30E05] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.4 | 06:40 | 13828 | |||
| C3.9 | 12:33 | 13824 | |||
| C2.3 | 13:34 | 13824 | |||
| C3.1 | 19:09 | 13828 |
September 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in an Earth facing position.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on September 18 due to lingering CME effects. Quiet levels are likely on September 19-21.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13822 | 2024.09.07 2024.09.09 |
2 | N14W85 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 13824 | 2024.09.10 2024.09.11 |
25 | 35 | 20 | S04W54 | 0100 | EAI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S05W57 area: 0220 |
| 13825 | 2024.09.12 2024.09.13 |
35 | 60 | 32 | S15E06 | 0180 | EKC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0480 location: S17E07 |
| S10110 | 2024.09.12 | N13W56 | |||||||||
| 13829 | 2024.09.13 2024.09.17 |
5 | 10 | 5 | N11W59 | 0050 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N12W46 SWPC location is way off, assumed to be this spot group |
| S10115 | 2024.09.13 | 9 | 3 | S13W05 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10117 | 2024.09.13 | 4 | N18W21 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13826 | 2024.09.14 2024.09.14 |
1 | 2 | S26W58 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S29W56 area: 0003 |
|
| S10120 | 2024.09.14 | S17W34 | |||||||||
| S10122 | 2024.09.15 | S10E02 | |||||||||
| S10123 | 2024.09.15 | 8 | 2 | S06E23 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10124 | 2024.09.15 | 3 | N16W00 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 13827 | 2024.09.15 2024.09.16 |
1 | 7 | 5 | S27E51 | 0120 | HHX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S26E48 area: 0170 SWPC classification and area are incompatible |
| S10126 | 2024.09.15 | 6 | 2 | N16W59 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10127 | 2024.09.15 | N08E34 |
 |
||||||||
| S10128 | 2024.09.15 | N06W04 | |||||||||
| S10129 | 2024.09.15 | S02W11 | |||||||||
| S10130 | 2024.09.15 | S14W55 |
 |
||||||||
| 13828 | 2024.09.16 2024.09.16 |
1 | 9 | 4 | S13E61 | 0120 | HHX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0240 location: S12E60 SWPC classification and area are incompatible |
| S10132 | 2024.09.16 | N11W29 |
 |
||||||||
| S10134 | 2024.09.17 | 4 | 1 | N30E05 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 70 | 157 | 74 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 140 | 277 | 164 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 108 | 183 | 100 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 154 | 152 | 131 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (143.3 projected, +6.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (147.8 projected, +4.5) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (152.6 projected, +4.8) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (156.5 projected, +4.0) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 |
203.0 | 196.5 | (158.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.7 projected, +0.4) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 210.8 (1) | 86.9 (2A) / 153.4 (2B) / 195.6 (2C) [ISN average: 156] |
(160.8 projected, +2.1) | (18.6) | |
| 2024.10 | (162.7 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (160.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (156.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (150.3 projected, -6.1) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (143.0 projected, -7.3) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (136.2 projected, -6.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in August 2024 were much higher than during any previous solar cycle 25 month. In comparison only 3 months during solar cycle 23 had higher SSN. Sunspot counts in early September are still high, although lower than in the beginning of August. With at least 5 consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to above 160 and could easily surpass 170 if the current activity lasts through October. The month of the peak is likely to occur sometime between July and November 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
