The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on October 27 due to weakening CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 410 and 498 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 190 pfu at the end of the day. A peak of 309 pfu was recorded at 04:45 UT on October 28 coinciding with the arrival of the October 26 CME. A solar wind shock was observed at 04:14 UT at ACE, the arrival of the October 26 CME. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 410 to 560 km/sec and has since increased further to 630 km/sec.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 246.2 - increasing 32.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 181.80. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 181.80 on April 28, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32122332 (planetary), 31133322 (Boulder), 42124454 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 20 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 517) and in 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 309) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13863 [S09W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13866 [S12W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13868 [S11W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13869 [S18E17] produced a few C flares and displayed no
significant changes.
AR 13870 [S19W71] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 13872 [S17E28] still has a magnetic delta configuration in the northeastern part of
the trailing penumbra. Major flares are possible. This spot group and AR
13873 will be reinterpreted for the next report. The trailing penumbra of AR
13872 now appears to be the leading penumbra of AR 13873.
AR 13873 [S11E37] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13874 [N24W04] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13875 [N27E11] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13876 [S05E07] developed further becoming more complex and adding
many spots. A major flare is possible.
New AR 13877 [S15E50] rotated into view on October 25 and was
numbered 2 days later by SWPC.
New AR 13878 [N16E76] rotated partly into view on October 26 and
received its NOAA number the next day. Further M flares are possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10261 [N17W32] decayed slowly and slowly.
S10276 [S26W23] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10277 [N07W23] was quiet and stable.
S10278 [S23E36] was quiet and stable.
S10279 [N15E18] was quiet and stable.
S10282 [N16E07] was quiet and stable.
New region S10291 [N22W23] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10292 [N18E58] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C7.0 | 00:14 | southwest limb | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13872 | |
| C4.7 | 01:34 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 01:41 | 13870 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 01:56 | 13872 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 02:52 | 13872 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.3 | 03:24 | N15E26 | 13869 | GOES16 | |
| C7.6 | 05:32 | 13872 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 06:29 | 13872 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 08:03 | 13874 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 09:27 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 09:33 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 09:46 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 10:09 | 13876 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 11:05 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 11:32 | N13E86 | 13878 | GOES16 | |
| C7.9 | 12:42 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1/1N | 13:15 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.8 | 13:26 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 14:31 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.4 | 15:35 | N24W03 | 13874 | GOES16 | |
| C4.8 | 16:02 | 13878 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13876 | |
| C4.0 | 17:25 | 13874 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 19:05 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 19:37 | 13876 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 19:46 | 13874 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 20:18 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 21:27 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 21:45 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 22:08 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.8 | 23:24 | 13878 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13876 |
October 25, 27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
October 26: A fast and well defined full halo CME was observed after
the closely spaced major flares in AR 13872. The CME reached Earth early on
October 28.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1250) was Earth facing on October 24-25. A positive polarity northern hemipshere coronal hole (CH1251) could rotate across the central meridian on October 30-31.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on October 28 due to CME effects. October 29 could see quiet to active disturbance levels due to weakening CME effects. Mostly quiet levels are likely on October 30-31.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13863 | 2024.10.17 2024.10.19 |
5 | 15 | 5 | S08W49 | 0080 | DSO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S09W49 |
| 13862 | 2024.10.18 2024.10.19 |
S15W59 | location: S17W62 | ||||||||
| 13865 | 2024.10.19 2024.10.20 |
S22W30 |
 |
location: S22W33 area: 0005 |
|||||||
| 13864 | 2024.10.19 2024.10.20 |
N25W51 | location: N25W43 | ||||||||
| 13866 | 2024.10.20 2024.10.21 |
2 | 14 | 4 | S12W22 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: S12W23 |
| S10261 | 2024.10.20 | 10 | N17W32 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13867 | 2024.10.20 2024.10.21 |
S15W51 | location: S21W46 | ||||||||
| 13868 | 2024.10.21 2024.10.21 |
1 | 12 | 1 | S11W08 | 0150 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S11W05 area: 0240 |
| S10265 | 2024.10.21 | S25W30 | |||||||||
| S10266 | 2024.10.21 | N09W30 | |||||||||
| 13869 | 2024.10.22 2024.10.23 |
15 | 55 | 30 | S16E14 | 0350 | EKI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0420 |
| 13870 | 2024.10.22 2024.10.24 |
2 | 4 | 2 | S19W78 | 0040 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S19W71 area: 0180 SWPC location is way off |
| S10269 | 2024.10.22 | N30W53 | |||||||||
| 13875 | 2024.10.23 2024.10.24 |
7 | 24 | 11 | N28E04 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: N27E11 SWPC location is way off |
| S10272 | 2024.10.23 | N18W05 | |||||||||
| 13872 | 2024.10.23 2024.10.24 |
12 | 32 | 16 | S17E28 | 0300 | DKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0750 |
| 13871 | 2024.10.24 | S09E05 | part of AR 13869 | ||||||||
| 13873 | 2024.10.24 2024.10.24 |
5 | 30 | 14 | S10E36 | 0090 | CAO | CAI |
 |
 |
location: S11E37 area: 0110 |
| S10275 | 2024.10.24 | N17W40 |
 |
||||||||
| S10276 | 2024.10.24 | 3 | S26W23 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10277 | 2024.10.24 | 9 | 3 | N07W23 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S10278 | 2024.10.24 | 5 | 3 | S23E36 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10279 | 2024.10.24 | 11 | 4 | N15E18 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13874 | 2024.10.24 2024.10.25 |
10 | 25 | 16 | N27W06 | 0070 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N24W04 area: 0170 |
| S10281 | 2024.10.24 | S21W41 | |||||||||
| S10282 | 2024.10.25 | 2 | N16E07 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13876 | 2024.10.25 2024.10.25 |
14 | 42 | 29 | S01E08 | 0120 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S05E07 area: 0350 |
| S10284 | 2024.10.25 | S15E44 |
 |
||||||||
| 13877 | 2024.10.25 2024.10.27 |
1 | 6 | 2 | S15E52 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S15E50 |
| S10286 | 2024.10.25 | N08W34 | |||||||||
| S10287 | 2024.10.25 | N15W10 | |||||||||
| S10288 | 2024.10.26 | S01W12 |
 |
||||||||
| 13878 | 2024.10.26 2024.10.27 |
4 | 14 | 7 | N18E72 | 0080 | DSO | EKI |
 |
 |
location: N16E76 area: 0410 |
| S10290 | 2024.10.26 | S23E02 |
 |
||||||||
| S10291 | 2024.10.27 | 2 | 2 | N24W04 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10292 | 2024.10.27 | 2 | N18E58 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 78 | 317 | 149 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 198 | 517 | 309 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 136 | 378 | 210 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 218 | 284 | 247 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.3 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (145.3 projected, +4.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (151.6 projected, +6.3) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (155.5 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.5 | (158.4 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (160.4 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (163.1 projected, +2.7) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 214.5 (1) | 130.6 (2A) / 150.0 (2B) / 207.3 (2C) ISN monthly average to date: 159 |
(165.4 projected, +2.3) | (19.9) | |
| 2024.11 | (163.7 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (160.7 projected, -3.0) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (156.3 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (149.6 projected, -6.7) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (144.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (141.6 projected, -3.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity in October 2024 increased over September and looks to be headed for an SSN near 160. The average solar flux for October will become the second highest for a month during SC25. The above plot now displays the peak in 365d smoothed sunspot numbers in mid October. ISN has a peak on October 15, NOAA SN on October 14 while both the 1K and 2K SDO SN peaked on October 16. Assuming that the average sunspot number from October 2024 until April 14, 2025 becomes 150, we would be looking at a 365 days smoothed sunspot maximum of 164.5 centered on October 15. Should the average sunspot number for that period become 160 we would get a peak near 169.7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
