The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on October 4. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 375 and 441 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 291.0 - increasing 69.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 177.86. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 177.86 on April 5, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.0). Three hour interval K indices: 22212223 (planetary), 22112323 (Boulder), 32122225 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 431) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 292) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13836 [S11W76] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet.
AR 13839 [S13W34] was quiet and stable.
AR 13841 [N13W35] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
AR 13842 [S15W21] has multiple magnetic delta configurations and
could produced another X flare.
AR 13843 [S09W56] decayed slowly and still has a magnetic delta
configuration in the trailing spot section.
AR 13844 [S15W42] gained area and could produce a major flare.
AR 13845 [N18W80] has only small and tiny spots (most of them in a
small area), yet managed to
produce an M flare late in the day.
AR 13847 [S27E21] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13848 [N13E43] was mostly unchanged and displayed less activity
than expected given its compact and complex magnetic layout. A major flare
is possible.
New AR 13849 [S06E67] rotated into view on October 3 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC. M class flares are possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10171 [S07W29] was quiet and stable.
S10190 [S16E02] was quiet and stable.
S10192 [S09W14] was quiet and stable.
S10194 [S11E32] gained a few spots and was quiet.
New region S10195 [N23E01] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C8.6 | 00:06 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 00:17 | N14W21 | 13841 | GOES16 | |
| C8.8 | 00:36 | 13848 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.4 | 01:07 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.6 | 01:23 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 01:59 | 13848 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.9 | 02:54 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 03:07 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.1 | 03:21 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.0/1N | 04:55 | S16W17 | 13842 | GOES18 | CME |
| M1.1 | 05:33 | 13848 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in AR 13849 and 13843 | |
| C8.8 | 08:09 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.9 | 08:39 | 13849 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 09:34 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 09:47 | 13848 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13842 | |
| C6.6 | 10:27 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 11:03 | 13836 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 11:10 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 11:51 | GOES16 | |||
| C7.5 | 12:40 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 12:56 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.7 | 13:07 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.4 | 13:40 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.2 | 13:44 | 13843 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.0 | 13:48 | 13841 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 14:16 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 14:40 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 14:51 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 15:39 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 16:49 | 13844 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 17:21 | 13843 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 17:34 | 13843 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.6 | 18:08 | S15W18 | 13842 | GOES16 | |
| C7.6 | 19:14 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 19:31 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.0 | 19:40 | 13842 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 21:04 | S15W42 | 13844 | GOES16 | |
| C7.0 | 21:25 | 13848 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2/1N | 22:11 | N17W83 | 13845 | GOES16 | |
| C8.5 | 22:32 | 13848 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.4 | 23:22 | 13844 | GOES16 |
October 4: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the M4
flare in AR 13842 early in the day. The CME could reach Earth late on
October 6.
October 3: A full halo CME aimed nearly straight at Earth was observed after the X9
flare in AR 13842. The CME could arrive on
October 5 and cause unsettled to severe geomagnetic storm levels.
October 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1245) was in an Earth facing position on October 4.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on October 5-7 due to CME effects. Effects from CH1245 could reach Earth on October or 8 and cause some unsettled and active intervals.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13836 | 2024.09.22 2024.09.23 |
1 | 1 | S11W75 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|
||
| 13845 | 2024.09.23 2024.10.01 |
1 | 6 | 3 | N18W88 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N18W80 area: 0020 SWPC position is way off |
| 13838 | 2024.09.24 2024.09.26 |
N15W68 | location: N16W64 | ||||||||
| 13840 | 2024.09.25 2024.09.27 |
N14W84 | location: N12W80 | ||||||||
| 13841 | 2024.09.25 2024.09.28 |
11 | 40 | 20 | N13W36 | 0080 | DAI | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0120 |
| 13839 | 2024.09.26 2024.09.26 |
1 | 7 | 4 | S13W36 | 0040 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 location: S13W34 |
| 13842 | 2024.09.27 2024.09.28 |
28 | 56 | 30 | S14W22 | 0710 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 1300 location: S15W21 |
| S10169 | 2024.09.27 | S21W52 |
 |
||||||||
| S10170 | 2024.09.27 | N25W56 | |||||||||
| S10171 | 2024.09.27 | 6 | 1 | S07W29 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10172 | 2024.09.27 | S03W57 | |||||||||
| 13843 | 2024.09.28 2024.09.29 |
9 | 23 | 12 | S08W53 | 0210 | EAO | EHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S09W42 area: 0380 |
| S10176 | 2024.09.28 | N17E01 | |||||||||
| S10178 | 2024.09.28 | S14W30 | |||||||||
| 13844 | 2024.09.29 2024.09.30 |
14 | 35 | 22 | S15W44 | 0660 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0900 |
| S10180 | 2024.09.29 | N01W20 | |||||||||
| S10182 | 2024.09.30 | S07E02 | |||||||||
| 13847 | 2024.09.30 2024.10.01 |
1 | 8 | 3 | S27E18 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S27E21 |
| S10184 | 2024.09.30 | N28W34 | |||||||||
| 13848 | 2024.10.01 2024.10.02 |
12 | 38 | 21 | N13E42 | 0520 | DKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 1310 location: N13E43 |
| S10186 | 2024.10.01 | N17W02 |
 |
||||||||
| S10187 | 2024.10.01 | N34W43 | |||||||||
| S10188 | 2024.10.01 | S34W21 | |||||||||
| S10189 | 2024.10.02 | N10W22 |
 |
||||||||
| S10190 | 2024.10.02 | 14 | 2 | S16E02 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13849 | 2024.10.03 2024.10.04 |
4 | 28 | 14 | S06E62 | 0150 | DAO | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S06E67 area: 0700 |
| S10192 | 2024.10.03 | 7 | 5 | S09W14 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10193 | 2024.10.03 | S22E22 |
 |
||||||||
| S10194 | 2024.10.03 | 9 | 3 | S11E32 | 0025 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S10195 | 2024.10.04 | 3 | 1 | N23E01 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 81 | 291 | 142 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 181 | 441 | 292 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 131 | 352 | 203 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 199 | 242 | 234 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.3 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (145.3 projected, +4.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (151.6 projected, +6.3) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (155.5 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 |
203.0 | 196.5 | (158.4 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (160.4 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (163.1 projected, +2.7) | 15.3 |
| 2024.10 | 280.5 (1) | 25.8 (2A) / 199.8 (2B) / 196.0 (2C) | (165.4 projected, +2.3) | (6.5) | |
| 2024.11 | (163.7 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (160.7 projected, -3.0) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (156.3 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (149.6 projected, -6.7) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (144.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (141.6 projected, -3.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in August 2024 were much higher than during any previous solar cycle 25 month. In comparison only 3 months during solar cycle 23 had higher SSN. Sunspot counts in early September are still high, although lower than in the beginning of August. With at least 5 consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to above 160 and could easily surpass 170 if the current activity lasts through October. The month of the peak is likely to occur sometime between July and November 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
