The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on May 31. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 179.4 - increasing 12.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 161.31. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 161.31 on December 1, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.0). Three hour interval K indices: 34212212 (planetary), 35222312 (Boulder), 46423433 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 347) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 224) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13690 [N16W31]
was quiet and stable.
Region 13691 [N25W17] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 13693 [N04W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13695 [N26W03] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13696 [N08E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13697 [S18E36] still has a significant magnetic delta
configuration with strong to very strong magnetic shear. Further major
flares are likely as long as that delta is intact. The region produced an
X1.4 flare at 08:48 UT on June 1. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 04:22, C1.7 @ 08:40,
C1.5 @ 09:47, C1.8 @ 10:56, C1.9 @ 13:13 UT
Region 13698 [N21E22] developed slowly and produced several C flares. The
region has polarity intermixing and there's a chance of an M class flare. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 09:28, C1.9 @ 10:21, C1.8 @ 10:42 UT
New region 13699 [N02W05] emerged quickly and could produce C and
minor M class flares.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9750 [N20W04] decayed slowly and quietly.
S9755 [N20W15] was quiet and stable.
New region S9757 [S06E47] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9758 [S09E62] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.9 | 00:21 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 01:28 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 02:34 | 13698 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13697 | |
| C3.4 | 03:00 | 13691 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 03:23 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.8 | 03:37 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 04:37 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 04:45 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 06:21 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 06:37 | 13691 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 06:48 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 07:10 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 07:38 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 07:51 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 09:04 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0/1N | 11:20 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 12:09 | 13691 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.4 | 12:40 | 13691 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 13:50 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:26 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 15:30 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 15:47 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 15:57 | 13697 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs 13698 and 13699 | |
| C8.0 | 16:11 | 13691 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13698 | |
| C3.6 | 16:41 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 17:10 | 13691 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 17:25 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 18:08 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 19:00 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 19:32 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 20:20 | 13691 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 20:26 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 20:33 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 21:35 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.1/2B | 22:03 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 23:00 | 13691 | GOES16 |
May 29: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the X1 long
duration event in AR 13697. A flanking impact is possible on May 31 or June
1.
May 30-31: No obviously Earth directed CME observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing locations.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on June 1-2, possible with minor storm intervals due to CME effects. Quiet conditions are likely on June 3.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13689 | 2024.05.19 | S07W84 |
location: S08W70 |
||||||||
| 13690 | 2024.05.23 2024.05.23 |
2 | 5 | 2 | N17W32 | 0020 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N16W31 |
| 13691 | 2024.05.24 2024.05.25 |
21 | 57 | 35 | N25W18 | 0280 | DKC | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N25W17 |
| 13692 | 2024.05.24 2024.05.25 |
S08W67 |
 |
location: S09W64 | |||||||
| 13693 | 2024.05.25 2024.05.26 |
2 | 6 | 3 | N04W32 | 0010 | HAX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N04W34 area: 0020 |
| 13696 | 2024.05.25 2024.05.26 |
3 | 1 | N08W00 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N08E03 |
||
| 13694 | 2024.05.26 | S12W25 | location: S15W17 | ||||||||
| 13695 | 2024.05.26 2024.05.26 |
2 | 20 | 5 | N27W05 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N26W03 area: 0030 |
| 13697 | 2024.05.27 2024.05.28 |
18 | 74 | 33 | S18E35 | 0380 | EKI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S18E36 area: 0800 |
| S9748 | 2024.05.27 | S22W17 | |||||||||
| S9750 | 2024.05.28 | 3 | 2 | N20W04 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13698 | 2024.05.28 2024.05.30 |
11 | 27 | 17 | N22E24 | 0050 | CSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N21E22 area: 0160 |
| S9753 | 2024.05.28 | S30W27 | |||||||||
| S9755 | 2024.05.30 | 6 | 3 | N20W15 | 0025 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13699 | 2024.05.31 2024.05.31 |
9 | 21 | 11 | N04W06 | 0050 | CAO | DAI |
 |
was AR S9756 area: 0120 location: N02W05 |
|
| S9757 | 2024.05.31 | 4 | 2 | S06E47 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9758 | 2024.05.31 | 1 | S09E62 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 65 | 227 | 114 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 135 | 347 | 224 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 103 | 261 | 148 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 149 | 191 | 179 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (128.7 projected, +0.9) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (127.0 projected, -1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (126.2 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (125.6 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (125.6 projected, -0.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.8 | 191.9 | 171.7 (SC25 peak) | (126.7 projected, +1.1) | 23.6 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | (1) | (2A/2B) / 180.7 (2C) | (125.9 projected, -0.8) | () | |
| 2024.07 | (124.2 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (122.2 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (121.0 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (119.6 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (114.5 projected, -5.1) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (109.1 projected, -5.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
The big increase in sunspot counts during the April 14-27 interval caused a major uptick in the smoothed SNs and solar flux. It's not yet clear when the next peak will be, anytime between October 28 and December 20, 2023 looks possible. The 365d smoothed solar flux exceeded the June 27 peak on October 28, while the 365d smoothed ISN and NOAA SN both exceeded the June 2023 peak in late October 2023. It should be noted that the current peak using 13-month smoothing is still in June 2023.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
