The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 19, weakly under the influence of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 362 and 421 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels at 0.3 pfu towards the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 168.9 - decreasing 1.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 156.45. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32221111 (planetary), 32333312 (Boulder), 33111224 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 249) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 175) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13607 [S18W46] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet.
Region 13608 [N10W37] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13611 [N28W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13613 [S22W58] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13614 [N17E45] was mostly quiet, however, there is still a significant magnetic delta structure within the large main
penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 13615 [S12E53] developed slowly and was by a large margin the
most active spot group on the visible disk. There is significant
polarity intermixing and several small magnetic delta structures are visible.
Further M class flaring is likely. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 14:43, C1.9 @ 14:50 UT
Region 13616 [N02W45] developed early in the day, then decayed after
noon. The region produced several C flares.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9518 [N26W17] was quiet and stable.
New region S9522 [S19W34] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S9523 [S13E83] rotated into view with a large penumbra
containing a few spots. A minor M class flare is possible.
Minor update at 07:55 UT: AR 13615 produced a major M7.4 flare at 07:36 UT on March 20. It is not yet known if there was a CME associated with this event.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 00:34 | behind northwest limb | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 01:16 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 01:40 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 01:48 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 01:59 | 13616 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4 | 02:29 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 03:09 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 03:47 | 13616 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 05:16 | 13615 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR S9523 | |
| C2.4 | 05:37 | 13615 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:59 | 13614 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 06:18 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 07:28 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 07:51 | 13614 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 10:01 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 10:37 | 13616 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 11:40 | S12E60 | 13615 | GOES16 | |
| C3.1 | 11:53 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 12:40 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 12:53 | S11E59 | 13615 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3 | 13:15 | southeast limb | S9523 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13615 |
| C2.1 | 13:51 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 14:57 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 15:09 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 15:59 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 16:29 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 17:26 | S14E59 | 13615 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 18:14 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 19:58 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 21:21 | 13615 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 21:30 | N05W44 | 13616 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 22:32 | 13614 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.1 | 23:27 | S16E57 | 13615 | GOES16 |
March 18-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 17: A faint full halo CME was observed after a southern
hemisphere filament eruption that began at approx. 02:16 UT. The CME was
visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 03:36 UT
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1207) will rotate across the central meridian on March 20-22.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 20-21 due to effects from the March 17 CME. Quiet conditions are likely on March 22. A high speed stream associated with CH1207 could reach Earth on March 23 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions lasting until March 25.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13606 | 2024.03.10 2024.03.12 |
N09W68 |
location: N08W68 |
||||||||
| 13608 | 2024.03.10 2024.03.13 |
5 | 9 | 5 | N10W38 | 0020 | CAO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N11W23 area: 0030 |
| 13609 | 2024.03.11 | N06W36 | location: N05W30 | ||||||||
| 13607 | 2024.03.11 2024.03.13 |
11 | 18 | 12 | S17W48 | 0080 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S18W46 area: 0120 |
| 13610 | 2024.03.12 2024.03.13 |
S16W14 | location: S15W07 | ||||||||
| 13611 | 2024.03.13 2024.03.14 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N28W03 | 0010 | HRX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N28W02 |
| S9502 | 2024.03.14 | N25W56 | |||||||||
| 13613 | 2024.03.15 2024.03.16 |
9 | 15 | 9 | S22W58 | 0080 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 13616 | 2024.03.16 2024.03.18 |
9 | 8 | 6 | N02W45 | 0050 | CAO | CAI |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 13614 | 2024.03.16 2024.03.17 |
6 | 25 | 9 | N16E43 | 0200 | DAO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N17E45 area: 0300 |
| S9509 | 2024.03.16 | S06W30 | |||||||||
| S9510 | 2024.03.17 | S22W21 |
 |
||||||||
| 13615 | 2024.03.17 2024.03.18 |
28 | 59 | 37 | S12E48 | 0240 | EAC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S12E53 area: 0350 |
| S9512 | 2024.03.17 | N20W30 | |||||||||
| S9513 | 2024.03.17 | S15W09 |
 |
||||||||
| S9514 | 2024.03.17 | S30E03 | |||||||||
| S9515 | 2024.03.17 | N09E45 |
 |
||||||||
| S9518 | 2024.03.18 | 3 | N26W17 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S9519 | 2024.03.18 | N09E20 |
 |
||||||||
| S9522 | 2024.03.19 | 6 | 4 | S19W34 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9523 | 2024.03.19 | 3 | 2 | S13E83 | 0310 | HKX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 69 | 149 | 85 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 139 | 249 | 175 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 102 | 189 | 125 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 153 | 137 | 140 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.1 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.2 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.3 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | (124.2 projected, +0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (125.0 projected, +0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (125.0 projected, -0.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.7 projected, -3.3) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (118.3 projected, -3.4) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.6 | (117.5 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 140.5 (1) | 57.2 (2A) / 93.3 (2B) / 115.8 (2C) | (116.9 projected, -0.6) | (7.5) | |
| 2024.04 | (116.9 projected, -0.0) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (118.1 projected, +1.2) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (117.3 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (115.6 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.7 projected, -1.9) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (112.0 projected, -1.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity saw a significant decrease during the latter half of February and the first part of March. While there is still a chance that there could be another and higher peak in October or November 2023, chances that June 2023 was solar max has increased. After November 2023 there is currently no other obvious candidate solar max month. Taking into account the state of the solar polar fields another major peak during SC25 is becoming less likely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
