The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 297 and 388 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 0.8 pfu at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 156.5 - decreasing 39.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 157.17. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32121000 (planetary), 22111110 (Boulder), 43100021 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 205) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 124) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13581 [S21W58] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13583 [N08W71] decayed slowly and produced several C flares.
C1 flares: C1.6 @ 11:42, C1.9 @ 13:42, C1.5 @ 16:33, C1.7 @ 23:34 UT
Region 13584 [S14W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13585 [N12W09] was quiet and stable.
Region 13586 [N27E20] developed slightly and
was quiet.
Region 13587 [S21W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13588 [S03W12] was quiet and stable.
New region 13590 [N19E76] rotated partly into view with large spots.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9428 [S11W06] was mostly quiet and stable. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 10:52 UT
S9433 [S11E07] was quiet and stable.
New region S9435 [N08E02] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9436 [S08E16] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 13589 behind the southwest limb was the source of a
C1.9 flare at 13:02, a C1.6 flare at 22:47 and a C1.7 flare recorded at
23:51 UT.
AR S9418 behind the northwest limb was the likely source of a C1.9 flare at
08:14 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.7 | 00:16 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 00:37 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 01:16 | 13590 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 02:11 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 02:42 | 13590 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 02:53 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 04:05 | behind southwest limb | 13589 | GOES16 | |
| C4.6 | 04:21 | 13590 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 05:37 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 12:08 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 18:37 | 13590 | GOES16 |
February 16-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1202) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 21-22.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 19-21.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13581 | 2024.02.07 2024.02.08 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S21W59 | 0020 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S21W58 |
| 13583 | 2024.02.08 2024.02.10 |
11 | 18 | 10 | N09W67 | 0250 | FKI | FSI |
 |
 |
area: 0320 location: N08W71 |
| 13584 | 2024.02.09 2024.02.10 |
6 | 14 | 7 | S15W33 | 0020 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 13585 | 2024.02.12 2024.02.13 |
9 | N13W09 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N12W09 | |||
| S9421 | 2024.02.12 | N27W40 | |||||||||
| 13587 | 2024.02.13 2024.02.15 |
3 | 7 | 4 | S20W02 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 13586 | 2024.02.13 2024.02.15 |
2 | 11 | 4 | N27E20 | 0140 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0190 |
| 13588 | 2024.02.14 2024.02.15 |
6 | 1 | S03W15 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S03W12 | ||
| S9428 | 2024.02.15 | 7 | 2 | S11W06 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9431 | 2024.02.16 | S28W24 | |||||||||
| S9432 | 2024.02.17 | S21E29 |
 |
||||||||
| S9433 | 2024.02.17 | 7 | 4 | S11E07 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13590 | 2024.02.18 2024.02.18 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N19E78 | 0250 | HHX | EHO |
 |
was AR S9434 area: 0900 location: N19E76 |
|
| S9435 | 2024.02.18 | 1 | N08E02 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9436 | 2024.02.18 | 2 | S08E16 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 24 | 85 | 34 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 84 | 205 | 124 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 54 | 113 | 62 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 92 | 113 | 99 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.1 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.2 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.3 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (123.4 projected, -0.9) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | (123.1 projected, -0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (123.9 projected, +0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (123.9 projected, +0.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (120.5 projected, -3.4) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (117.1 projected, -3.3) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 175.0 (1) | 82.1 (2A) / 132.2 (2B) / 149.7 (2C) | (116.3 projected, -0.8) | (5.1) | |
| 2024.03 | (115.8 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (115.7 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (117.0 projected, +1.3) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (116.2 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (114.5 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.1 projected, -1.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
The relatively high solar activity during the first weeks of 2024 has changed the outlook regarding solar max. The first peak in June 2023 currently has a less than 10% probability of being the actual solar max. The next candidate month is October 2023 (October 8-11 if zooming in on a specific date). The likelihood of October 2023 surpassing June 2023 is at least 50%. It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
