The geomagnetic field was inactive on March 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 353 and 429 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded inactive levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 3 pfu at the end of the day having peaked at 16.7 pfu at 06:30 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 144.1 - decreasing 12.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 156.31. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00000000 (planetary), 10002211 (Boulder), 00000000 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 206) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 155) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13606 [N08W26] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13607 [S17W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13608 [N10E04] reemerged with several tiny spots.
Region 13610 [S15E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13611 [N28E36] was quiet and stable.
Region 13612 [N22W69] decayed early in the day, then developed as new
flux emerged. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 14:59 UT
New region 13613 [S22W18] emerged on March 15 and was numbered the
next day as the spot group developed further. C flares are possible. C1
flares: C1.6 @ 14:16 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9484 [S17W34] was quiet and stable.
S9499 [N17W26] was quiet and stable.
New region S9506 [N08W26] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9507 [S10W67] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9508 [N17E84] rotated partly into view with a large spot.
C and M flares are likely. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 03:46, C1.3 @ 08:45, C1.1 @
09:27, C1.4 @ 09:51, C1.9 @ 12:30, C1.7 @ 12:52, C1.6 @ 15:34, C1.9 @ 21:07
UT
New region S9509 ]S06E09] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M3.5 | 16:35 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C8.2 | 19:16 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 20:45 | S9508 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 21:55 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 23:26 | 13612 | GOES16 |
March 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 17: A faint full halo CME was observed after a southern
hemisphere filament eruption that began at approx. 02:16 UT. The CME was
visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 03:36 UT
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1205) was Earth facing on March 13. A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1206) was in an Earth facing position on March 14. A negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1207) will likely rotare across the central meridian on March 20-21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 17 due to effects from CH1205 and on March 18-19 due to effects from CH1206. The March 17 CME could reach Earth on March 20 and cause unsettled to active conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13604 | 2024.03.04 2024.03.05 |
N08W83 |
location: N08W75 |
||||||||
| S9484 | 2024.03.07 | 6 | 2 | S17W34 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13606 | 2024.03.10 2024.03.12 |
2 | 8 | 1 | N09W26 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N08W26 |
| 13608 | 2024.03.10 2024.03.13 |
7 | 6 | N11W00 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
location: N10E04 | |||
| S9491 | 2024.03.11 | N06W27 | |||||||||
| 13609 | 2024.03.11 | N06E09 | location: N05E22 | ||||||||
| 13607 | 2024.03.11 2024.03.13 |
6 | 14 | 6 | S17W08 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S17W09 |
| S9494 | 2024.03.11 | N26W35 | |||||||||
| 13610 | 2024.03.12 2024.03.13 |
3 | 1 | S16E28 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S15E32 | ||
| 13611 | 2024.03.13 2024.03.14 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N28E36 | 0030 | HRX | HAX |
 |
 |
|
| S9499 | 2024.03.13 | 1 | N17W26 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13612 | 2024.03.14 2024.03.15 |
1 | 8 | 4 | N23W68 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N22W69 area: 0020 |
| S9502 | 2024.03.14 | N25W17 | |||||||||
| 13613 | 2024.03.15 2024.03.16 |
7 | 17 | 8 | S23W17 | 0070 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S22W18 area: 0170 |
| S9504 | 2024.03.15 | S23E18 |
 |
||||||||
| S9505 | 2024.03.16 | 1 | 1 | N03W02 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9507 | 2024.03.16 | 4 | 2 | S10W67 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9508 | 2024.03.16 | 2 | 2 | N17E84 | 0480 | DKO |
 |
||||
| S9509 | 2024.03.16 | 3 | 1 | S06E09 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 17 | 76 | 35 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 67 | 206 | 155 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 28 | 105 | 64 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 74 | 113 | 124 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.1 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.2 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.3 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | (124.2 projected, +0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (125.0 projected, +0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (125.0 projected, -0.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.7 projected, -3.3) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (118.3 projected, -3.4) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.6 | (117.5 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 136.3 (1) | 45.8 (2A) / 88.8 (2B) / 113.4 (2C) | (116.9 projected, -0.6) | (8.2) | |
| 2024.04 | (116.9 projected, -0.0) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (118.1 projected, +1.2) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (117.3 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (115.6 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.7 projected, -1.9) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (112.0 projected, -1.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity saw a significant decrease during the latter half of February and the first part of March. While there is still a chance that there could be another and higher peak in October or November 2023, chances that June 2023 was solar max has increased. After November 2023 there is currently no other obvious candidate solar max month. Taking into account the state of the solar polar fields another major peak during SC25 is becoming less likely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
