The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 353 and 495 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 7 pfu at the end of the day, peaking at 47 pfu at 10:30 UT, probably influence by a large backsided flare from long departed AR 13565 just after 04h UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 184.1 - increasing 18.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 157.16. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33111001 (planetary), 23111212 (Boulder), 54110000 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 213) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 165) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13576 [S16W65] lost spots and still has
2 magnetic delta structures. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @
00:23 UT
Region 13581 [S21W06] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13582 [N04W41] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13583 [N09W12] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.7 @ 05:52 UT
Region 13584 [S14E19] produced a few C flares and decayed slowly.
Region 13585 [N13E48] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13586 [N26E79] rotated fully into view with a mature spot.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9418 [N09W34] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet.
S9423 [S22E52] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S9425 [S02E44] emerged near the equator with a few spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 00:58 | unnumbered region north of AR S9423 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 01:07 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 01:41 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 02:11 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 03:10 | S9418 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:28 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 06:10 | 13582 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 06:26 | 13582 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13584 by SWPC | |
| C3.6 | 06:54 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 07:35 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 08:10 | 13571 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13585 | |
| C2.4 | 08:44 | 13584 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 09:26 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 09:46 | 13583 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 10:06 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 10:29 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 11:04 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 11:28 | 13576 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13583 | |
| C3.4 | 11:36 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 12:00 | 13584 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 12:06 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 12:32 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 12:54 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 13:27 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 14:23 | 13576 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13584 by SWPC | |
| C3.8 | 14:31 | 13576 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13584 by SWPC | |
| C2.6 | 14:54 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 15:19 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 16:07 | 13576 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13586 | |
| C4.7 | 17:10 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 17:56 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 18:52 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 19:54 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 20:28 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 21:47 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 22:30 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 22:40 | 13576 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 23:27 | 13576 | GOES16 |
February 13-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
February 12: A backsided fast and large full halo CME was observed
from 06:36 UT after a proton flare well behind the southwest limb from AR
13565. A well defined backsided CME was observed from 15:06 UT in LASCO C3
imagery following activity behind the northeast limb. Another backsided CME
observed after 22h UT in LASCO C3 imagery was associated with a long
duration M2.6 event peaking at 21:17 UT from a source behind the east limb.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere developed on February 14 and will be Earth facing on February 15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 15-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13576 | 2024.02.03 2024.02.03 |
18 | 36 | 22 | S16W65 | 0660 | FKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0960 |
| 13578 | 2024.02.04 2024.02.05 |
S04W61 |
 |
location: S04W52 |
|||||||
| S9405 | 2024.02.05 | N39W58 | |||||||||
| S9406 | 2024.02.06 | N14W30 | |||||||||
| 13579 | 2024.02.06 2024.02.07 |
S09W51 | |||||||||
| 13581 | 2024.02.07 2024.02.08 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S21W07 | 0060 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S21W06 area: 0100 |
| 13582 | 2024.02.08 2024.02.10 |
13 | 8 | 5 | N06W40 | 0170 | EAI | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: N04W41 apparently SWPC is including the spots of AR S9418 in their data for this spot group |
| 13583 | 2024.02.08 2024.02.10 |
13 | 20 | 11 | N09W13 | 0260 | EHO | FAO |
 |
 |
area: 0410 location: N09W12 |
| 13584 | 2024.02.09 2024.02.10 |
3 | 10 | 5 | S13E16 | 0020 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: S14E19 |
| S9415 | 2024.02.10 | N14W14 | |||||||||
| S9416 | 2024.02.10 | S07W36 | |||||||||
| S9417 | 2024.02.10 | N26W13 | |||||||||
| S9418 | 2024.02.11 | 15 | 9 | N09W34 | 0220 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13585 | 2024.02.12 2024.02.13 |
4 | 9 | 5 | N15E47 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N13E48 |
| S9421 | 2024.02.12 | N28E12 | |||||||||
| S9422 | 2024.02.12 | S03W25 | |||||||||
| S9423 | 2024.02.13 | 6 | 3 | S22E52 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13586 | 2024.02.13 2024.02.14 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N29E68 | 0050 | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N26E70 area: 0200 |
|
| S9425 | 2024.02.14 | 6 | 3 | S02E44 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 53 | 113 | 65 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 123 | 213 | 165 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 96 | 162 | 114 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 135 | 117 | 132 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.1 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.2 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.3 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (123.4 projected, -0.9) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | (123.1 projected, -0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (123.9 projected, +0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (123.9 projected, +0.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (120.5 projected, -3.4) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (117.1 projected, -3.3) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 176.9 (1) | 67.2 (2A) / 139.1 (2B) / 158.1 (2C) | (116.3 projected, -0.8) | (5.5) | |
| 2024.03 | (115.8 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (115.7 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (117.0 projected, +1.3) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (116.2 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (114.5 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.1 projected, -1.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
The relatively high solar activity during the first weeks of 2024 has changed the outlook regarding solar max. The first peak in June 2023 currently has a less than 10% probability of being the actual solar max. The next candidate month is October 2023 (October 8-11 if zooming in on a specific date). The likelihood of October 2023 surpassing June 2023 is at least 50%. It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
