The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on June 27. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 182.5 - increasing 3.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 163.07. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 163.07 on December 28, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21112123 (planetary), 32122336 (Boulder), 32123434 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 18 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 378) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 218) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13719 [S17W42] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 14:15 UT
Region 13720 [S06W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13721 [N25W01] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13722 [S13W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13723 [S21E21] decayed slowly and produced a few C flares. C1
flares: C1.3 @ 11:23, C1.6 @ 18:27 UT
Region 13725 [N21W15] was quiet and stable.
Region 13726 [S06E12] was quiet and stable.
Region 13727 [S18E34] was less active than
during the previous day and displayed few changes. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 22:50
UT
Region 13728 [S27E30] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13729 [S04E56] produced a few flares, however, the region has
a fairly simple magnetic structure.
New region 13730 [S18E08] was split off from AR 13723 and was the
source of the largest flare of the day. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 06:38, C1.6 @
13:33, C1.5 @ 18:07 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9830 [S06E35] was quiet and stable.
S9832 [N07W11] reemerged with tiny spots..
S9834 [S17E63] was quiet and stable
New region S9836 [N04W79] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9837 [N09E31] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S9838 [N23E29] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S9839 [S26W03] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
A very active region behind the northeast limb could soon rotate into view and produce M flares.
Minor update added at 11:50 UT: A solar wind shock was observed at DSCOVR at 09:09 on June 28. This was likely the arrival of the June 24 CME. Minor to severe geomagnetic storming will be likely today.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.1 | 01:18 | 13723 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13730 | |
| C2.9 | 02:30 | 13730 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13723 by SWPC | |
| C2.5 | 03:44 | 13729 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 04:28 | 13729 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 05:10 | 13719 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 09.00 | 13728 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 09.55 | 13727 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 14:38 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 15:50 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 17:12 | 13719 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 19:54 | 13728 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 21:02 | 13727 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 21:40 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 21:53 | 13727 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 22:37 | 13730 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 23:47 | 13730 | GOES16 |
June 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed. A large filament eruption in the southwestern quadrant late on June 24 was associated with a CME. If there are any Earth directed components a weak disturbance will be possible on June 28-29.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 28-29 and quiet on June 30.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13719 | 2024.06.19 2024.06.19 |
3 | 9 | 5 | S15W39 | 0140 | CSO | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0350 location: S17W42 |
| 13720 | 2024.06.19 2024.06.19 |
6 | 19 | 9 | S06W30 | 0090 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S06W27 |
| S9815 | 2024.06.19 | N16W32 |
 |
||||||||
| 13725 | 2024.06.20 2024.06.23 |
15 | 6 | N18W15 | 0030 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N21W15 | ||
| 13721 | 2024.06.21 2024.06.21 |
2 | 13 | 5 | N25W02 | 0090 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 location: N25W01 |
| 13722 | 2024.06.21 2024.06.21 |
1 | 12 | 7 | S12W05 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0260 location: S13W03 |
| 13723 | 2024.06.22 2024.06.23 |
10 | 27 | 10 | S19E21 | 0110 | DAO | CRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0070 location: S21E21 |
| 13726 | 2024.06.22 2024.06.23 |
13 | 4 | S04E05 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S06E12 | ||
| 13724 | 2024.06.23 | 1 | S14W04 | 0050 | HSX | SWPC split this off from AR 13722 | |||||
| 13728 | 2024.06.23 2024.06.25 |
4 | 10 | 5 | S27E28 | 0030 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: S27E30 |
| 13727 | 2024.06.24 2024.06.25 |
7 | 24 | 10 | S18E32 | 0110 | CSO | CHI |
 |
 |
area: 0470 location: S18E34 |
| S9830 | 2024.06.24 | 4 | 2 | S06E35 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13729 | 2024.06.25 2024.06.26 |
7 | 18 | 12 | S03E52 | 0110 | DAI | ESI |
 |
 |
location: S04E56 area: 0410 |
| S9832 | 2024.06.25 | 2 | N07W11 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 13730 | 2024.06.26 2024.06.27 |
5 | 18 | 11 | S18E09 | 0030 | CSO | CRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0090 |
| S9834 | 2024.06.26 | 4 | 2 | S17E63 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9835 | 2024.06.26 | N51W18 |
 |
||||||||
| S9836 | 2024.06.27 | 1 | N04W79 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9837 | 2024.06.27 | 3 | N09E31 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S9838 | 2024.06.27 | 3 | N23E29 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S9839 | 2024.06.27 | 3 | S26W03 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 46 | 198 | 88 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 146 | 378 | 218 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 96 | 252 | 142 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 161 | 208 | 174 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (128.7 projected, +0.9) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (127.0 projected, -1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (126.2 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (125.6 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (125.6 projected, -0.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 (SC25 peak) | (126.7 projected, +1.1) | 23.56 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.8 (1) | 137.8 (2A) / 153.1 (2B) / 158.3 (2C) | (125.9 projected, -0.8) | (8.0) | |
| 2024.07 | (124.2 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (122.2 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (121.0 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (119.6 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (114.5 projected, -5.1) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (109.1 projected, -5.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
May 2024 easily became the month with the highest sunspot counts during solar cycle 25, and early June has seen no change in that pattern of many spot groups, some of which are large and complex. The next candidate for solar max is still uncertain, however, May 20-21, 2024 has all of the smoothed 365d sunspot numbers as well as the 365d smoothed solar flux signalling a peak on those days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
