The geomagnetic field was at very quiet levels on July 3. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 167.4 - decreasing 23.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 163.20. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 163.22 on January 1, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11111111 (planetary), 55252103 (lately erroneous measurements from Boulder), 32002012 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 319) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 196) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13722 [S13W82] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13723 [S20W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13727 [S18W44] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13728 [S25W40] was quiet and stable.
Region 13729 [S04W25] decayed slowly and produced several C flares.
C1 flares: C1.8 @ 00:33, C1.6 @ 04:27, C1.6 @ 09:01, C1.8 @ 15:11 UT
Region 13730 [S18W71] decayed slowly and was the origin of several
flares.
Region 13731 [S16W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13733 [N04W26] developed further and
could produce M flares.
Region 13734 [N08E11] decayed losing spots and area.
Region 13735 [N16E22] was quiet and stable.
New region 13736 [S18E66] rotated into view on July 2 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 06:51, C1.3 @ 07:15, C1.8 @
10:12 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9855 [S13W63] was mostly quiet and stable.
S9858 [S20E13] was quiet and stable.
New region S9859 [S27E67] emerged with a few
spots.
New region S9860 [S04W10] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.9 | 01:35 | 13729 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C2.5 | 03:32 | 13729 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 05:58 | 13736 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 07:33 | 13736 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5/1N | 07:41 | S20W62 | 13730 | GOES16 | strong type II radio sweep, CME |
| C2.2 | 09:46 | 13736 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 11:01 | S20W66 | 13730 | GOES16 | |
| C2.5 | 12:11 | 13729 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 15:20 | 13729 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 19:26 | 13729 | GOES16 |
July 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1230) could rotate into an Earth facing position on July 6-7.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 4-7.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13721 | 2024.06.21 2024.06.21 |
N26W82 |
 |
||||||||
| 13722 | 2024.06.21 2024.06.21 |
1 | 2 | S11W82 | 0040 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: S13W82 |
|
| 13723 | 2024.06.22 2024.06.23 |
1 | S18W61 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S20W53 |
|||
| 13726 | 2024.06.22 2024.06.23 |
S04W85 | location: S05W64 | ||||||||
| 13724 | 2024.06.23 | 1 | S15W83 | 0030 | HSX | SWPC split this off from AR 13722 | |||||
| 13728 | 2024.06.23 2024.06.25 |
8 | 1 | S26W52 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S25W40 |
||
| 13727 | 2024.06.24 2024.06.25 |
4 | 8 | 4 | S19W46 | 0120 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 location: S18W44 |
| S9830 | 2024.06.24 | S07W45 | |||||||||
| 13729 | 2024.06.25 2024.06.26 |
35 | 58 | 36 | S05W26 | 0240 | FAI | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0340 location: S04W25 This AR is considered for split into 3 ARs |
| 13730 | 2024.06.26 2024.06.27 |
4 | 2 | 2 | S18W72 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S18W71 |
| 13731 | 2024.06.26 2024.06.28 |
4 | 5 | 1 | S16W20 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S16W18 |
| S9837 | 2024.06.27 | N09W47 | |||||||||
| S9838 | 2024.06.27 | N26W45 |
 |
||||||||
| 13732 | 2024.06.28 | 5 | S20W54 | 0010 | DRO | Apparently SWPC has moved the location from the leading spot section of AR 13727 to the trailing spot section of AR 13723 | |||||
| 13733 | 2024.06.28 2024.06.29 |
8 | 34 | 22 | N05W29 | 0050 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N04W26 area: 0280 |
| 13734 | 2024.06.28 2024.06.29 |
7 | 25 | 9 | N09E18 | 0060 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N08E11 SWPC location is way off |
| S9843 | 2024.06.28 | N09W27 | |||||||||
| S9844 | 2024.06.28 | N12W56 | |||||||||
| S9845 | 2024.06.28 | S30W36 | |||||||||
| 13735 | 2024.06.29 2024.06.29 |
1 | 5 | 3 | N17E20 | 0040 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N16E22 |
| S9847 | 2024.06.29 | S13W07 | |||||||||
| S9849 | 2024.06.29 | S16W22 | |||||||||
| S9851 | 2024.06.30 | S40W09 | |||||||||
| S9854 | 2024.07.01 | N23W07 | |||||||||
| S9855 | 2024.07.01 | 7 | 4 | S13W63 | 0080 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9856 | 2024.07.01 | S28W18 | |||||||||
| 13736 | 2024.07.02 2024.07.03 |
2 | 7 | 3 | S18E65 | 0060 | CSO | DSO |
 |
 |
location: S18E66 area: 0220 |
| S9858 | 2024.07.02 | 3 | S20E13 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S9859 | 2024.07.03 | 3 | 1 | S27E67 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9860 | 2024.07.03 | 1 | S04W10 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 72 | 169 | 86 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 182 | 319 | 196 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 115 | 210 | 127 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 200 | 175 | 157 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (128.9 projected, -0.5) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (129.4 projected, +0.5) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (130.3 projected, +0.9) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (131.0 projected, +0.7) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 (SC25 peak) | (133.2 projected, +2.2) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (134.9 projected, +1.7) | 9.9 |
| 2024.07 | 167.3 (1) | 18.3 (2A) / 188.7 (2B) / 160.8 (2C) | (134.8 projected, -0.1) | (4.3) | |
| 2024.08 | (134.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (134.4 projected, +0.1) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (134.3 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (132.3 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (128.0 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (124.0 projected, -4.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
May 2024 easily became the month with the highest sunspot counts during solar cycle 25, and early June has seen no change in that pattern of many spot groups, some of which are large and complex. The next candidate for solar max is still uncertain, however, May 20-21, 2024 has all of the smoothed 365d sunspot numbers as well as the 365d smoothed solar flux signalling a peak on those days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
