The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels on June 7. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. Another CME was the likely source of a relatively brief and intense disturbance that was observed beginning at ACE at 10:50 UT. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day, but increased rapidly to a peak of 1030 pfu at 08:00 UT on June 8 following a major proton flare in AR 13697.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 184.4 - decreasing 29.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 161.72. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 161.72 on December 8, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 31 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 31.4). Three hour interval K indices: 23247633 (planetary), 13235533 (Boulder), 44246524(Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 304) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 184) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13697 [S19W58] developed again after
several days of slow decay. A major M9.7 flare was recorded 01:49 UT on June
8 and the associated partial halo CME was dense and could reach Earth on
June 10.
Region 13698 [N22W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13701 [S06W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13702 [N17E05] developed slowly and quietly as new flux
emerged.
Region 13703 [S08W35] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13704 [S18E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13707 [S15E47] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13708 [S22E59] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 13709 [S10E67] rotated into view on June 6 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day. M flares are possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9769 [N09E18] decayed slowly and quietly.
S9771 [N36E04] was quiet and stable.
S9778 [N26E29] was quiet and stable.
New region S9780 [S21W78] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S9781 [S25E48] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9782 [S08E58] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S9783 [S08E81] rotated into view with a few spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C7.5 | 00:32 | S19W47 | 13697 | GOES16 | |
| C4.8 | 00:59 | 13709 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 01:30 | 13709 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 01:56 | 13703 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 02:59 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 03:07 | behind northwest limb | 13695 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13697 |
| C6.8 | 03:48 | 13698 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 05:15 | behind northwest limb | 13695 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13697 by SWPC |
| C4.6 | 06:53 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 07:18 | S21W53 | 13697 | GOES16 | |
| C9.0 | 08:48 | 13709 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.0 | 09:13 | S10E84 | 13709 | GOES16 | |
| C4.0 | 10:14 | 13709 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 11:04 | behind northwest limb | 13695 | GOES16 | |
| C7.0 | 12:19 | behind northwest limb | 13695 | GOES16 | |
| C6.0 | 13:19 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 16:00 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 16:22 | S20W50 | 13697 | GOES16 | |
| C5.7 | 17:34 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 17:52 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 18:31 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.0 | 19:05 | S17W66 | 13697 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 19:56 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 20:33 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 22:13 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 22:21 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 22:42 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 23:19 | 13697 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 23:39 | 13707 | GOES16 |
June 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CME observed.
June 8: A partial halo CME was observed after the M9 flare in AR
13697 at 01:49 UT. The CME could reach Earth on June 10 and cause active to
severe storm conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1224) rotated across the central meridian on June 4-6. A southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1225) could become Earth facing on June 10, however, is showing signs of decay.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on June 8-10 due to effects from CH1224.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13697 | 2024.05.27 2024.05.28 |
19 | 36 | 18 | S17W58 | 0320 | DKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S19W58 area: 0420 |
| 13698 | 2024.05.28 2024.05.30 |
8 | 9 | 6 | N22W68 | 0130 | DAI | EAO |
 |
 |
area: 0150 |
| 13701 | 2024.05.31 2024.06.01 |
4 | 3 | 2 | S06W53 | 0050 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S06W55 |
| 13703 | 2024.05.31 2024.06.03 |
13 | 26 | 10 | S08W37 | 0200 | DAC | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S08W35 area: 0270 |
| S9760 | 2024.06.01 | N11W27 | |||||||||
| 13702 | 2024.06.01 2024.06.02 |
1 | 13 | 4 | N17E03 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 location: N17E05 |
| S9762 | 2024.06.01 | S14W06 | |||||||||
| 13704 | 2024.06.02 2024.06.03 |
1 | 3 | 1 | S18E08 | 0030 | HRX | CAO |
 |
 |
|
| 13706 | 2024.06.03 2024.06.04 |
S12W13 |
 |
location: S12W21 | |||||||
| S9769 | 2024.06.03 | 2 | N09E18 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S9770 | 2024.06.04 | N15W23 | |||||||||
| S9771 | 2024.06.04 | 2 | N36E04 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S9772 | 2024.06.04 | S05E01 | |||||||||
| S9774 | 2024.06.05 | S27E26 | |||||||||
| 13707 | 2024.06.05 2024.06.06 |
10 | 20 | 9 | S15E46 | 0080 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0140 location: S15E47 |
| 13708 | 2024.06.05 2024.06.06 |
1 | 4 | 2 | S23E59 | 0060 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 |
| S9777 | 2024.06.06 | S17W29 |
 |
||||||||
| S9778 | 2024.06.06 | 1 | N26E29 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13709 | 2024.06.06 2024.06.07 |
3 | 10 | 7 | S10E74 | 0080 | CAI | CKO |
 |
 |
area: 0410 location: S10E67 |
| S9780 | 2024.06.07 | 2 | 1 | S21W78 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9781 | 2024.06.07 | 4 | S25E48 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S9782 | 2024.06.07 | 5 | 2 | S08E58 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9783 | 2024.06.07 | 4 | 2 | S08E81 | 0040 | CRO |
 |
beta-delta? | |||
| Total spot count: | 60 | 144 | 64 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 150 | 304 | 184 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 108 | 202 | 122 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 165 | 167 | 147 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (128.7 projected, +0.9) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (127.0 projected, -1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (126.2 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (125.6 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (125.6 projected, -0.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.8 | 191.9 | 171.7 (SC25 peak) | (126.7 projected, +1.1) | 23.6 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 188.1 (1) | 43.5 (2A) / 186.3 (2B) / 183.9 (2C) | (125.9 projected, -0.8) | (9.2) | |
| 2024.07 | (124.2 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (122.2 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (121.0 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (119.6 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (114.5 projected, -5.1) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (109.1 projected, -5.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
May 2024 easily became the month with the highest sunspot counts during solar cycle 25, and early June has seen no change in that pattern of many spot groups, some of which are large and complex. The next candidate for solar max is still uncertain, however, May 20-21, 2024 has all of the smoothed 365d sunspot numbers as well as the 365d smoothed solar flux signalling a peak on those days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
