The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on September 24. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 296 and 485 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels. A solar wind shock was recorded at 19:47 UT at SOHO, the arrival of one of the September 22 CMEs. The total field of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly between 15 and 28 nT since the shock arrival, with some strong southern swings (Bz).
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 173.7 - increasing 32.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 154.64. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.8). Three hour interval K indices: 21221166 (planetary), 21332256 (Boulder), 43232177(Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 330) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 223) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13435 [N09W22] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet.
Region 13438 [N11W33] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13439 [S24W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13440 [N17W04] was quiet and stable.
Region 13441 [N09W59] decayed slowly and quietly. Apparently SWPC
includes neighboring ARs S8981 and S8987 in this region.
Region 13442 [S09W00] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13443 [N28W64] decayed slowly and produced a few flares.
Region 13444 [N23E05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13445 [S14E05] was again the most active
region on the visible disk. Slow decay was
observed. There are only small and tiny spots without mature penumbra,
however, there is significant polarity intermixing. A major flare is still
possible. The above 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced after the M4 flare and
peaked at 2.2 pfu at 15:00 UT. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 00:39, C1.9 @ 01:02, C1.9 @
13:45 UT
Region 13446 [N22E36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8981 [N06W56] developed slowly and quietly.
S8987 [N05W64] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S8989 [S22E22] emerged with many tiny and small spots. C
flares are possible.
New region S8990 [N13E87] rotate partially into view with a mature
spot.
New region S8991 [N23E49] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.8 | 01:25 | S12E22 | 13445 | GOES16 | |
| C2.6 | 02:08 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 03:07 | S15E18 | 13445 | GOES16 | |
| M1.9 | 03:14 | S12E22 | 13445 | GOES16 | |
| M4.4/1N | 03:28 | S13E19 | 13445 | GOES16 | proton flux enhancement |
| C2.0 | 05:39 | 13443 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 06:17 | S17E14 | 13445 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 07:15 | 13435 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 08:07 | 13443 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 09:16 | S14E18 | 13445 | GOES16 | |
| C6.9 | 09:40 | S16E14 | 13445 | GOES16 | |
| C9.7 | 10:12 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.6 | 10:24 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 11:53 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 12:09 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 12:54 | 13443 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:30 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:42 | 13435 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 15:00 | 13443 | GOES16 | weak type II radio sweep | |
| C2.0 | 15:54 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 16:17 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 17:19 | 13438 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13445 by SWPC | |
| C3.1 | 17:36 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 17:43 | 13435 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 19:15 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 19:25 | 13435 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 20:04 | 13435 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 20:24 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 20:58 | 13445 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 22:22 | 13445 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8989 | |
| C6.0 | 22:31 | 13445 | GOES16 |
September 22: Several CMEs were observed during the day. The first
one was a partial halo CME following a filament eruption to the northeast of
AR 13435 triggering an M1 flare in that region. Another filament eruption
occurred across the central meridian in the northern hemisphere (to the
north of AR 13438) just hours later and may have had Earth directed
components. These CMEs could reach Earth on September 24-25.
September 23-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1176) formed after a filament eruption early on September 22. CH1176 rotated across the central meridian that day and on September 23.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to major storm on September 25 due to CME effects, severe storm intervals are possible. Quiet to active conditions are likely on September 26 becoming quiet to unsettled on September 27.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13433 | 2023.09.10 2023.09.12 |
1 | N28W92 | 0040 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| S8966 | 2023.09.15 | S05W47 | |||||||||
| 13435 | 2023.09.16 2023.09.16 |
16 | 35 | 20 | N10W23 | 0300 | DKI | DKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0500 location: N09W22 |
| 13439 | 2023.09.17 2023.09.18 |
1 | 5 | 3 | S24W21 | 0020 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: S24W20 area: 0012 |
| 13440 | 2023.09.17 2023.09.18 |
1 | 5 | 1 | N18W05 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N17W04 area: 0130 |
| 13438 | 2023.09.18 | 6 | 11 | 7 | N13W33 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: N11W33 |
| 13442 | 2023.09.18 2023.09.20 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S09W00 | 0020 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| 13443 | 2023.09.18 2023.09.21 |
8 | 8 | 7 | N28W68 | 0250 | EKO | ESO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N28W64 area: 0380 |
| S8976 | 2023.09.18 | N24W24 | |||||||||
| 13441 | 2023.09.19 2023.09.19 |
12 | 2 | 2 | N07W61 | 0040 | CAI | AXX |
 |
 |
SWPC is including neighboring regions AR S8981 and S8987 in this
region location: N09W59 area: 0006 |
| S8978 | 2023.09.19 | S17W37 | |||||||||
| 13444 | 2023.09.19 2023.09.21 |
6 | N24W00 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N23E05 | |||
| S8980 | 2023.09.19 | S05W59 | |||||||||
| S8981 | 2023.09.20 | 10 | 4 | N06W56 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8982 | 2023.09.20 | S18W47 |
 |
||||||||
| 13446 | 2023.09.21 2023.09.22 |
2 | 4 | 1 | N23E34 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N22E36 |
| 13445 | 2023.09.21 2023.09.22 |
24 | 56 | 32 | S14E05 | 0200 | DAI | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0310 |
| S8987 | 2023.09.21 | 14 | 6 | N05W64 | 0040 | CRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S8988 | 2023.09.23 | N19W14 |
 |
||||||||
| S8989 | 2023.09.24 | 19 | 8 | S22E22 | 0060 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S8990 | 2023.09.24 | 1 | 1 | N13E87 | 0200 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S8991 | 2023.09.24 | 2 | N23E49 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 72 | 180 | 93 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 172 | 330 | 223 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 118 | 220 | 133 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 189 | 182 | 178 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.1 (+2.2) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.4 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.9 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | (121.0 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (126.3 projected, +5.3) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (131.9 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.1 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (135.5 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.9 | (137.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 153.3 (1) | 103.0 (2A) / 128.8 (2B) / 134.3 (2C) | (140.7 projected, +3.4) | (14.1) | |
| 2023.10 | (142.5 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (145.1 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (144.2 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (141.4 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (141.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (140.8 projected, -0.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
