The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on September 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 346 and 419 km/sec. A high density, low speed disturbance was observed beginning at DSCOVR at 10:18 UT. There were no signs of a solar wind shock in SOHO/MTOF data. This makes it more likely that the source of this disturbance is not a CME, but rather a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a high speed stream from CH1169. Solar wind speed has been increasing slowly after 21h UT. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 153.5 - decreasing 6.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 154.06. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 23.8). Three hour interval K indices: 10135544 (planetary), 11025634 (Boulder), 10135654 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 268) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 146) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13423 [N15W40] decayed slowly and
produced a few flares including an M2.5 flare, the largest of the day. C1
flares: C1.9 @ 08:58 UT
Region 13424 [N17W17] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 13425 [N23W12] decayed and came close to
losing mature penumbra on all spots. The region produced an M1.1 flare and a
few C flares. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 09:18. C1.9 @ 12:17, C1.2 @ 17:04 UT
Region 13427 [S29W11] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13429 [N11E33] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.6 @
10:52 UT.
Region 13430 [S18W18] has many small spots and was mostly quiet.
Region 13431 [S07E33] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13433 [N27E64] began to rotate into view on September 10
and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8942 [N07E40] was quiet and stable.
S8948 [N07E07] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S8956 [S10E03] emerged before noon, then decayed slowly.
New region S8957 [N39W17] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
New region S8958 [S24E09] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
AR S8946 behind the southwest limb produced a C1.6
flare at 19:38 UT.
AR 13418 behind the northwest limb produced a C1.8 flare which began at
23:47 and peaked 17 minutes later at 00:04 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 00:59 | behind NW limb | 13418 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 01:04 | 13431 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 01:13 | 13431 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 01:28 | 13425 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13431 | |
| C3.8 | 02:15 | behind NW limb | 13418 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0 | 03:46 | 13423 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.9/1B | 04:26 | N22E03 | 13425 | GOES18 | |
| C4.5 | 05:43 | S06E45 | 13431 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 06:38 | behind NW limb | 13418 | GOES16 | |
| M2.5/2N | 07:07 | N17W31 | 13423 | GOES16 | |
| C7.3 | 08:06 | behind NW limb | 13418 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 11:12 | N24W01 | 13425 | GOES16 | |
| C3.1 | 11:37 | N17W34 | 13423 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 13:40 | 13425 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 15:24 | N23W06 | 13425 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 15:47 | 13425 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 16:11 | behind NW limb | 13418 | GOES16 | |
| C4.6 | 20:09 | 13429 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 22:00 | 13423 | GOES16 |
September 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1169) rotated across the central meridian on September 9-10. A negative polarity coronal hole (CH1171) in the southern hemisphere was Earth facing on September 9-10. A trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1172) will be Earth facing on September 11-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on September 13-15 due to effects from CH1169, CH1171 and CH1172.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13422 | 2023.09.03 2023.09.04 |
N14W89 |
location: N11W71 |
||||||||
| 13423 | 2023.09.03 2023.09.04 |
15 | 28 | 13 | N16W40 | 0340 | EKC | EKI |
 |
 |
area: 0580 location: N15W40 |
| S8921 | 2023.09.03 | S14W48 | |||||||||
| 13424 | 2023.09.05 2023.09.05 |
4 | N17W20 | 0006 | BXO |
location: N17W17 |
|||||
| 13425 | 2023.09.05 2023.09.06 |
24 | 37 | 18 | N24W13 | 0090 | EAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0170 location: N23W12 |
| S8928 | 2023.09.05 | S22W46 | |||||||||
| S8934 | 2023.09.06 | S22E04 | |||||||||
| 13426 | 2023.09.07 2023.09.07 |
S14W56 | location: S17W50 | ||||||||
| S8935 | 2023.09.07 | N30W31 |
 |
||||||||
| 13427 | 2023.09.07 2023.09.09 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S27W12 | 0005 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S29W11 area: 0010 |
| S8937 | 2023.09.07 | N11W29 | |||||||||
| 13432 | 2023.09.08 2023.09.11 |
2 | S24W88 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| S8940 | 2023.09.08 | S22E28 |
 |
||||||||
| 13429 | 2023.09.09 2023.09.10 |
6 | 16 | 8 | N10E31 | 0030 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N11E33 |
| S8942 | 2023.09.09 | 4 | 4 | N07E40 | 0040 | HAX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13428 | 2023.09.09 2023.09.10 |
N14W76 |
 |
||||||||
| 13431 | 2023.09.09 2023.09.10 |
5 | 10 | 6 | S07E33 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0050 |
| S8945 | 2023.09.09 | N27E13 | |||||||||
| 13430 | 2023.09.10 2023.09.10 |
7 | 23 | 15 | S17W19 | 0030 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: S18W18 |
| S8948 | 2023.09.10 | 4 | N07E07 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8949 | 2023.09.10 | N09E19 |
 |
||||||||
| 13433 | 2023.09.10 2023.09.12 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N28E67 | 0070 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0190 location: N27E64 |
| S8952 | 2023.09.11 | S16W37 |
 |
||||||||
| S8954 | 2023.09.11 | N17E44 |
 |
||||||||
| S8955 | 2023.09.11 | N31E15 |
 |
||||||||
| S8956 | 2023.09.12 | 1 | S10E03 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8957 | 2023.09.12 | 1 | N39W17 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8958 | 2023.09.12 | 4 | S24E09 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 61 | 138 | 66 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 141 | 268 | 146 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 90 | 172 | 100 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 155 | 147 | 117 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.1 (+2.2) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.4 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.9 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | (121.0 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (126.3 projected, +5.3) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (131.9 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.1 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (135.5 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.9 | (137.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 150.0 (1) | 48.3 (2A) / 120.8 (2B) / 120.1 (2C) | (140.7 projected, +3.4) | (12.0) | |
| 2023.10 | (142.5 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (145.1 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (144.2 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (141.4 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (141.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (140.8 projected, -0.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
