The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on November 22 under the influence of effects from CH1187. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 443 and 628 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 189.5 - increasing 62.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 156.74. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 30 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 29.9). Three hour interval K indices: 45543443 (planetary), 34543332 (Boulder), 45633354 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 356) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 240) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13488 [N29W25] lost the leader spots and was quiet.
Region 13489 [S13E05] decayed substantially and
produced several C flares.
Region 13491 [N10E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13492 [N19E37] produced several C flares. New spots to the
southeast were split off into a separate group.
Region 13493 [S12E45] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13494 [S17E50] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13496 [N07E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13497 [N18E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13498 [S11W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9156 [N22E26] developed further and has a weak magnetic delta
structure in a southern penumbra. A minor M class flare is possible.
S9164 [S08W42] decayed early in the day, then developed slowly.
New region S9168 [S18E77] rotated into view as a compact, complex
region with major flare potential. Many C flares were recorded from this
region.
New region S9169 [S17E18] emerged during the latter half of the day
with several spots.
New region S9170 [S09E85] rotated partly into view with a mature
spot.
New region S9171 [N08E11] emerged to the east of AR 13496.
New region S9172 [N15E41] developed quickly and produced many C
flares. The region has a magnetic delta structure in a leading penumbra and
could produce M class flares.
New region S9173 [N11E59] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
An active region just behind the northeast limb was the source of an M1.4 flare at 03:37 UT on November 23.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C7.5 | 01:11 | N21E48 | 13492 | GOES18 | |
| C4.3 | 01:21 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 01:36 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 01:52 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 02:16 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 04:01 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 04:48 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 05:27 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 06:05 | southeast limb | S9168 | GOES18 | |
| C8.9 | 06:28 | N13E51 | S9172 | GOES18 | |
| C3.4 | 06:57 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 07:33 | S9156 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 07:40 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 07:58 | southeast limb | S9168 | GOES18 | |
| C3.8 | 08:36 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 09:28 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 09:47 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.2 | 10:04 | 13489 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR S9172 | |
| C3.6 | 10:39 | S9168 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 13492 | |
| C3.4 | 11:11 | S9168 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.8 | 11:58 | S9168 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.6 | 12:15 | S9168 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.6 | 12:31 | 13489 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.9 | 13:05 | 13489 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 14:07 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 14:46 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 15:50 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.9 | 16:45 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 17:20 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 17:54 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 18:56 | S9168 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 19:02 | 13489 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.1 | 20:26 | S9168 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 22:31 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.8 | 23:00 | S9156 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 23:30 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.3 | 00:03 | S9172 | GOES18 |
November 20-21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 22: A filament eruption in the southeast quadrant early in
the day was associated with a partial halo CME. This CME may have an Earth
directed component, in which case we could see geomagnetic effects on
November 25. Another filament eruption in the southwest quadrant late in the
day may have been associated with another partial halo CME, however, it is
uncertain if this CME has any Earth directed component.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A well defined positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1187) was Earth facing on November 18. A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1189) will be Earth facing on November 23-24.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 23 due to decreasing effects from CH1187. Quiet conditions are likely on November 24. If the Nov.22 CME reaches Earth, we could see unsettled to active conditions on November 25. Effects from CH1189 could cause quiet to minor storm conditions on November 26-27.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S9141 | 2023.11.13 | N25W37 | |||||||||
| 13488 | 2023.11.14 2023.11.14 |
4 | N31W32 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N29W29 |
|||
| S9149 | 2023.11.16 | S08W36 | |||||||||
| 13489 | 2023.11.16 2023.11.17 |
14 | 29 | 13 | S16E04 | 0220 | CAI | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S13E05 |
| S9151 | 2023.11.16 | S24W19 | |||||||||
| S9152 | 2023.11.16 | S14W53 | |||||||||
| S9153 | 2023.11.17 | N22W50 | |||||||||
| S9154 | 2023.11.17 | S18W51 | |||||||||
| 13497 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.20 |
8 | 2 | N16E22 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N18E23 SWPC has moved AR 13490 back and forth over the last days and has finally decided that what was AR 13497 is now the southern part of 13490 to them |
||
| S9156 | 2023.11.18 | 24 | 8 | N22E26 | 0290 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta SWPC apparently considers this region as two groups (13490 and 13495) |
||
| 13490 | 2023.11.18 | 9 | N20E22 | 0150 | DAC | ||||||
| S9157 | 2023.11.18 | N13W18 | |||||||||
| 13492 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.20 |
33 | 41 | 27 | N18E36 | 0310 | EKC | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0510 |
| 13491 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.19 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N13E27 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N10E32 area: 0090 SWPC location is way off |
| 13496 | 2023.11.19 2023.11.20 |
2 | 4 | 2 | N09E08 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N07E08 |
| 13493 | 2023.11.20 2023.11.20 |
3 | 4 | 1 | S12E43 | 0040 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S12E45 area: 0150 |
| S9162 | 2023.11.20 | S17E37 |
 |
||||||||
| 13494 | 2023.11.20 2023.11.20 |
12 | 2 | 2 | S16E50 | 0030 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S17E50 area: 0150 SWPC spot count must be a typo |
| 13495 | 2023.11.20 | 2 | N27E31 | 0030 | HRX | apparently the spots in the northeastern part of AR S9156 | |||||
| S9164 | 2023.11.20 | 8 | 3 | S08W42 | 0040 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9165 | 2023.11.20 | N47W52 | |||||||||
| S9166 | 2023.11.20 | S33E35 |
 |
||||||||
| 13498 | 2023.11.21 2023.11.21 |
8 | 7 | 4 | S11W40 | 0050 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 |
| S9167 | 2023.11.21 | S09W45 |
 |
||||||||
| S9168 | 2023.11.22 | 12 | 5 | S18E77 | 0390 | DKC |
 |
beta-delta | |||
| S9169 | 2023.11.22 | 16 | 5 | S17E18 | 0100 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S9170 | 2023.11.22 | 1 | 1 | S09E85 | 0050 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S9171 | 2023.11.22 | 1 | 1 | N08E11 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S9172 | 2023.11.22 | 22 | 15 | N15E41 | 0350 | DAC |
 |
beta-delta | |||
| S9173 | 2023.11.22 | 2 | N11E59 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 84 | 186 | 90 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 174 | 356 | 240 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 127 | 258 | 162 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 191 | 196 | 192 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.0 (+3.2) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.7 (+1.7) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | (124.7 projected, +2.0) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | (127.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (128.3 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (130.1 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 133.6 | (133.5 projected, +3.4) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (135.2 projected, +1.7) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 144.5 (1) | 62.2 (2A) / 84.8 (2B) / 102.7 (2C) | (137.8 projected max SC25, +2.6) | (13.1) | |
| 2023.12 | (137.1 projected, -0.7) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (134.4 projected, -2.7) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (134.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (133.7 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (134.5 projected, +0.8) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (135.8 projected, +1.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
