The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 4. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 305 and 377 km/sec. A high density, low speed disturbance was observed arriving at SOHO near 15:45 UT, the likely source being the October 31 CME. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. At 08:12 UT on November 5 a strong solar wind shock was observed at SOHO, the arrival of either of the November 2 or 3 CMEs. The total field of the IMF is at 34 nT as I write this, with a southward Bz excursion to -26 nT. Severe storm levels are possible.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 155.3 - decreasing 1.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 156.15. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11112254 (planetary), 01113333 (Boulder), 20001455 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 207) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 144) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13472 [N21W77] became more unstable and
produced a number of low level C flares. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 00:47, C1.4 @
08:08, C1.7 @ 09:52, C1.3 @ 10:42, C1.7 @ 14:02, C1.3 @ 16:37 UT
Region 13473 [N18W48] was mostly quiet and stable featuring only tiny
spots.
Region 13474 [S18W72] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.4 @ 07:35, C1.6 @ 09:16 UT
Region 13477 [S14E27] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.4 @
12:20, C1.0 @ 23:12 UT
Region 13478 [N12E30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13479 [N21W14] was quiet and stable.
Region 13480 [S09E53] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. The region
has a weak magnetic delta structure in a small trailing penumbra. A minor M
class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 17:08, C1.3 @ 20:05, C1.4 @ 20:24
UT
New region 13481 [N20E47] rotated into view on November 2 and was
numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region decayed slowly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New region S9120 [S11W28] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9121 [N03E82] rotated into view with a small spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 04:07 | 13473 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 08:20 | 13472 | GOES16 |
November 4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 3: A CME was observed following a large (almost
50 degrees long) filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant (from the
central meridian and westwards) early in the day. The CME could reach Earth on October 6.
November 2: Several CMEs were observed during the day. The most
interesting one was associated with an eruption in the northeastern quadrant
starting near 02:30 UT in SDO/AIA imagery. At least a partial halo CME was
observed after this event and this CME likely reached Earth on November 5.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large and well defined negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1183) will be Earth facing on November 4-6.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on November 5-6 due to CME effects. Quiet to major storm is possible on November 7-8 due to effects from CH1183.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13472 | 2023.10.25 2023.10.26 |
3 | 7 | 4 | N21W77 | 0060 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N20W64 |
| S9089 | 2023.10.25 | N11W57 | |||||||||
| 13473 | 2023.10.25 2023.10.26 |
6 | 1 | N17W45 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N18W48 |
||
| 13474 | 2023.10.26 2023.10.27 |
5 | 11 | 5 | S18W68 | 0240 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
|
| 13476 | 2023.10.28 2023.10.31 |
S15W47 |
 |
location: S13W40 | |||||||
| S9106 | 2023.10.30 | N12W20 | |||||||||
| S9107 | 2023.10.30 | S20W22 |
 |
||||||||
| S9108 | 2023.10.30 | S15W56 | |||||||||
| 13479 | 2023.10.31 2023.11.02 |
4 | 15 | 7 | N22W14 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: N21W14 |
| 13478 | 2023.10.31 2023.11.01 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N12E30 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0015 |
| 13477 | 2023.10.31 | 4 | 27 | 11 | S15E30 | 0350 | CKO | EKO |
 |
 |
area: 0470 location: S14E27 |
| S9111 | 2023.11.01 | N25W02 |
 |
||||||||
| S9112 | 2023.11.01 | N17W39 | |||||||||
| S9113 | 2023.11.01 | S37W07 | |||||||||
| 13480 | 2023.11.02 2023.11.03 |
7 | 27 | 12 | S09E54 | 0180 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0350 |
| 13481 | 2023.11.02 2023.11.04 |
1 | 7 | 1 | N20E48 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0015 |
| S9116 | 2023.11.02 | N00W18 | |||||||||
| S9117 | 2023.11.03 | S10W09 |
 |
||||||||
| S9118 | 2023.11.03 | S06W46 |
 |
||||||||
| S9119 | 2023.11.03 | N35E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S9120 | 2023.11.04 | 3 | 1 | S11W28 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9121 | 2023.11.04 | 1 | 1 | N03E82 | 0030 | HRX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 25 | 107 | 44 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 95 | 207 | 144 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 53 | 142 | 79 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 105 | 114 | 115 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.0 (+3.2) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.7 (+1.7) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | (124.7 projected, +2.0) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | (127.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (128.3 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (130.1 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 133.6 | (133.5 projected, +3.4) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (135.2 projected, +1.7) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 157.1 (1) | 14.0 (2A) / 104.8 (2B) / 113.9 (2C) | (137.8 projected max SC25, +2.6) | (7.2) | |
| 2023.12 | (137.1 projected, -0.7) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (134.4 projected, -2.7) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (134.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (133.7 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (134.5 projected, +0.8) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (135.8 projected, +1.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
