The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 14 under the influence of weak effects from CH1146/CH1147. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 399 and 532 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 139.7 - decreasing 26.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 141.06. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 12112332 (planetary), 12112432 (Boulder), 22113443 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 280) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 197) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13297 [N09W84] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13301 [N13E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13302 [N18E09] was quiet and stable.
Region 13303 [S12W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13304 [N21W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13305 [N09E11] developed initially, then decayed slowly.
New region 13306 [S19W34] first emerged on May 10, then decayed. New
flux emerged on May 13 and the region developed further as it was numbered
by SWPC. The region has minor polarity intermixing. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 19:45,
C1.6 @ 21:11 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8549 [S22W03] was quiet and stable.
S8556 [N13W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S8559 [N27W24] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8560 [S28E29] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8561 [N11E27] emerged early in the day, then decayed
slowly.
New region S8563 [S09E48] emerged with a few
spots.
New region S8564 [S22W20] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8565 [S22E35] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 13296 produced a C1.4 flare at 11:50 and a C1.1
flare at 15:09 UT from behind the northwest limb.
A C1.8 flare, likely from a source near the southeast limb, was recorded at
21:21 UT.
Other C1 flares noted (awaiting source confirmation if SDO/AIA images become
available): C1.1 @ 01:52, C1.4 @ 02:54, C1.6 @ 06:39 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.5 | 04:06 | GOES16 | |||
| C2.9 | 04:30 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.6 | 04:44 | N08E28 | 13305 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 05:33 | GOES16 | |||
| C7.0 | 09:17 | 13296 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 22:35 | 13306 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 22:51 | 13306 | GOES16 |
May 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
An elongated northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1146) was Earth facing on May 8-11. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1147) rotated across the central meridian on May 11. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1148) will likely become Earth facing on May 16-17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on May 15-18. On May 19-20 effects from CH1148 could cause quiet to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13294 | 2023.05.01 2023.05.02 |
1 | S07W87 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| 13297 | 2023.05.02 2023.05.02 |
2 | 2 | 1 | N09W83 | 0040 | CAO | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N09W84 area: 0180 |
| 13299 | 2023.05.03 2023.05.04 |
S08W67 |
location: S07W65 |
||||||||
| S8529 | 2023.05.04 | S26W48 | |||||||||
| 13300 | 2023.05.06 2023.05.09 |
N09W67 |
 |
|
|||||||
| 13303 | 2023.05.07 2023.05.09 |
8 | 1 | S10W13 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S12W09 | ||
| 13301 | 2023.05.08 2023.05.09 |
4 | 8 | 6 | N14W00 | 0120 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: N13E03 |
| S8543 | 2023.05.08 | N25W47 | |||||||||
| 13304 | 2023.05.08 2023.05.11 |
8 | 13 | 7 | N22W19 | 0030 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N21W20 |
| 13302 | 2023.05.08 2023.05.09 |
5 | 17 | 7 | N19E05 | 0070 | CSO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 location: N18E09 |
| S8549 | 2023.05.09 | 11 | 3 | S22W03 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8551 | 2023.05.10 | N13W19 |
 |
||||||||
| 13306 | 2023.05.10 2023.05.14 |
5 | 17 | 9 | S18W36 | 0040 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S19W34 area: 0060 |
| S8553 | 2023.05.10 | N26W36 | |||||||||
| 13305 | 2023.05.12 | 14 | 37 | 24 | N10E11 | 0070 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N09E11 area: 0200 |
| S8555 | 2023.05.12 | S23W19 | |||||||||
| S8556 | 2023.05.12 | 1 | N13W33 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8557 | 2023.05.13 | N25W23 |
 |
||||||||
| S8558 | 2023.05.13 | S37E32 |
 |
||||||||
| S8559 | 2023.05.14 | 4 | 3 | N27W24 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8560 | 2023.05.14 | 3 | S28E24 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8561 | 2023.05.14 | 1 | 1 | N11E29 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8563 | 2023.05.14 | 4 | 3 | S09E48 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8564 | 2023.05.14 | 2 | 1 | S22W20 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8565 | 2023.05.14 | 2 | 1 | S22E35 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 39 | 130 | 67 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 109 | 280 | 197 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 67 | 159 | 96 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 120 | 154 | 158 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | (100.4 projected, +1.7) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | (104.1 projected, +3.7) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (110.1 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (115.2 projected, +5.1) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (118.3 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (123.7 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 157.5 (1) | 55.2 (2A) / 122.3 (2B) / 153.7 (2C) | (129.3 projected, +5.6) | (11.9) | |
| 2023.06 | (132.5 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (132.0 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (133.0 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (136.4 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (138.3 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (141.4 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
